The Fig, the Olive and the Peaceful Land

Officials in Indonesia often proclaim that "the fundamentals of the Indonesian economy are quite strong." But is that really the case? The phrase "Indonesia's economic fundamentals are strong" refers to the belief that the country's key economic indicators—such as economic growth, inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and trade balance—are in good condition and provide a solid foundation for economic stability and resilience.
Indonesia has maintained steady economic growth, typically above 5% annually. For example, growth was recorded at 5.05% in 2023 and 4.95% in Q3 of 2024.
Inflation has remained stable and within the target range set by the government and central bank. For instance, inflation stood at 3.05% in March 2024, reflecting price stability.
Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are substantial, ranging between USD 140-150 billion. This provides a buffer against external shocks and strengthens the country's financial position.
Is it true? Can we trust the data, or should we take it with a grain of salt? After all, it seems that data institutions in Indonesia have a peculiar talent for redefining statistics to make them look more palatable for the government—especially for the President. It's almost as if they believe that a little creative math can turn a shaky foundation into a rock-solid skyscraper!
While these indicators suggest strong fundamentals, challenges remain, such as currency fluctuations, reliance on commodity exports, and global economic uncertainties (e.g., geopolitical tensions or slowing demand). However, policymakers often emphasize these "strong fundamentals" to reassure investors and the public that Indonesia's economy is resilient and capable of weathering external shocks.

Several factors could potentially undermine the economic fundamentals of Indonesia, leading to a downturn. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts can create instability in global markets, affecting trade and investment flows. For example, tensions between major economies can disrupt supply chains and lead to increased costs for businesses. High and persistent inflation in major economies can lead to tighter monetary policies, which may slow global economic growth and reduce demand for Indonesian exports.
Geopolitical factors can significantly influence the economic fundamentals of Indonesia. Ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, can lead to disruptions in global markets, particularly affecting commodity prices. Indonesia, as a significant importer of oil and gas, may face increased costs, impacting inflation and overall economic stability.
Tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, including disputes in the South China Sea, can create uncertainty that affects trade routes and investor confidence. This may lead to capital flight or reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia.
Economic sanctions imposed on countries can lead to shifts in trade dynamics. For instance, sanctions on Russia have affected global energy prices, which in turn impact Indonesia's import costs and inflation rates
Changes in international trade agreements or tariffs can alter Indonesia's export competitiveness. If major trading partners impose tariffs or barriers, it could negatively affect Indonesia’s export-driven sectors.
Actions by central banks in major economies, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, can lead to increased borrowing costs globally. This situation can result in capital outflows from emerging markets like Indonesia, leading to currency depreciation and economic instability.
Geopolitical uncertainties can cause volatility in financial markets, affecting stock prices and investor sentiment. A decline in market confidence can lead to reduced investments and slower economic growth.
As a net importer of oil, fluctuations in global oil prices due to geopolitical tensions can directly impact inflation rates in Indonesia. Rising energy prices can increase transportation and production costs, affecting consumer prices and overall economic health
Geopolitical events can also affect the prices of other key commodities such as metals and agricultural products, which are crucial for Indonesia's economy. Geopolitical tensions may lead to social unrest or political instability within Indonesia if economic conditions worsen (e.g., rising prices). This instability can further deter investment and disrupt economic activities.
So, geopolitical factors play a crucial role in shaping the economic landscape of Indonesia. The government must remain vigilant and responsive to these external pressures to maintain economic stability and growth.

The strengthening of the US dollar (USD) can have significant impacts on Indonesia's economy. As the USD strengthens, the value of the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) typically weakens against it. This results in higher costs for imported goods, which are priced in USD. Indonesia relies heavily on imports for essential commodities like oil, machinery, and consumer goods. Consequently, more expensive imports can lead to inflation as businesses pass on these costs to consumers.
The rise in import prices due to a stronger dollar can contribute to overall inflation within Indonesia. Higher prices for imported food and raw materials can strain household budgets and reduce consumer purchasing power, potentially leading to decreased domestic consumption.
A stronger dollar makes Indonesian exports more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand for Indonesian goods in international markets. This can negatively affect the trade balance, as exports decline while import costs rise, leading to a worsening current account deficit.
Many Indonesian companies and the government have foreign debts denominated in USD. When the dollar strengthens, the cost of servicing this debt increases in terms of IDR, putting additional financial pressure on borrowers and possibly leading to higher default risks
The strengthening USD may influence foreign investment dynamics. Investors might seek higher returns in dollar-denominated assets rather than investing in emerging markets like Indonesia, leading to capital outflows. This could further depreciate the rupiah and increase economic volatility.
Certain sectors, particularly those reliant on imported raw materials (like manufacturing and automotive), may experience increased production costs due to a stronger dollar. Conversely, sectors that export commodities may benefit from improved competitiveness due to lower prices in foreign markets.

Rising interest rates can dampen consumer spending and investment. If borrowing costs increase significantly, it may lead to reduced economic activity domestically.
A lack of regulatory consistency or abrupt policy changes can deter foreign investment. Investors seek stability and predictability, and any perception of risk can lead to capital flight or reduced inflows.
Indonesia's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can significantly impact revenue and economic stability. A sharp decline in prices could lead to lower export earnings and a widening current account deficit
Indonesia is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, which can disrupt economic activities and infrastructure, leading to significant economic losses.
Inadequate infrastructure can hinder economic growth by increasing costs for businesses and limiting access to markets. Continued investment in infrastructure is crucial for sustaining growth. Insufficient investment in education and skills development can lead to a workforce that is not adequately prepared for the demands of a modern economy, affecting productivity and innovation.
While Indonesia's economic fundamentals are currently viewed as strong, these risks highlight the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential vulnerabilities. Addressing these challenges through sound policy frameworks and strategic investments will be essential for maintaining economic stability and growth.

Approaching Eid al-Fitr 2025, Indonesia is expected to be sluggish and unable to boost the economy due to several key factors affecting the purchasing power of the public.
The number of travelers during Eid this year is predicted to reach only about 146.48 million people, a 24% decrease compared to last year, which saw approximately 193.6 million travelers. This decline is unusual as the number of travelers typically increases each year.
The circulation of money during Eid is estimated to be only around IDR 137.975 trillion, down from IDR 157.3 trillion the previous year. This reflects a weakening of economic activity during the Eid period.
Weak Purchasing Power of Consumers
An unstable economic condition and layoffs (PHK) in various sectors have led to a decline in consumer purchasing power. The Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) also indicates a decrease, which implies that consumer spending is more defensive.
Economic Anomalies

Research institutions like CORE have noted anomalies in household consumption leading up to Eid, with deflation trends indicating a drop in public consumption. This impacts household decisions to postpone or cancel their travel plans. These conditions suggest that the purchasing power of the public is very low, contributing to the sluggishness of the economy during Eid al-Fitr 2025.
Due to several interrelated factors, the community's purchasing power tends to be defensive during Lebaran 2025. Many families are facing increased expenses for essentials such as food, fuel, and transportation. This financial strain forces individuals to prioritise basic needs over holiday spending, leading to a significant drop in travel plans for Eid.
Indonesia is experiencing its worst deflation in over two decades, with a recorded deflation rate of 0.09% year-on-year in February 2025. This unusual economic condition indicates weak consumer demand, which further diminishes confidence in spending. Surveys show that many consumers perceive limited job opportunities, leading to a cautious approach to spending.
Household consumption in the lead-up to Eid has been unusually low. The expected surge in retail sales typical during Ramadan is absent this year, with growth rates significantly below historical averages
The decline in consumer activity has ripple effects across various sectors, including retail and transportation, which typically see increased demand during Eid. Businesses are adjusting their strategies but may struggle to recover from the reduced spending.
The weakening of the middle class, which traditionally drives economic growth, contributes to the overall decline in aggregate consumption. As disposable incomes shrink, families cut back on discretionary spending during the festive season
The combination of rising living costs, deflationary pressures, declining consumer confidence, and socioeconomic challenges leads to a defensive purchasing behavior among communities during Lebaran 2025.

The anomalies observed during Lebaran 2025 suggest that the fundamentals of Indonesia's economy may not be sufficiently robust. Reports indicate that there is a significant drop in household consumption leading up to Eid, with many households, particularly from the middle and lower classes, reducing their spending due to economic pressures. The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) highlighted that there is no visible trend of increased spending for Ramadan and Eid this year, which is atypical for this period.
Indonesia experienced deflation in early 2025, which is unusual for the pre-Eid period, when consumer demand typically rises. The deflation rates recorded were 0.09% year-on-year and 0.48% month-on-month in February 2025. Such deflation indicates weak consumer demand and can signal underlying economic issues.
The prevalence of layoffs (PHK) in various sectors has significantly impacted disposable incomes, leading to a cautious approach to spending among households. Many families are feeling financially squeezed, which further exacerbates the decline in consumption.
The overall economic activity during this festive period is expected to be lower than in previous years, with projections indicating that the economic growth rate may decline as a result of weakened consumer confidence and spending. The decrease in the number of travelers during Eid also reflects reduced disposable income available for discretionary spending.

Economic pressures such as the decline in household income and deflationary trends, changes in consumer behavior and external Influences can be mentioned as the main factors causing the consumption anomaly during Lebaran 2025 in Indonesia. The economic situation has led to significant layoffs (PHK) in the manufacturing sector, which has directly impacted the income of middle and lower-class households. This has resulted in reduced purchasing power and a more cautious approach to spending during the festive season
Indonesia experienced deflation in early 2025, with a recorded deflation rate of -0.09% year-on-year and -0.48% month-on-month in February. This unusual trend indicates weak consumer demand, as typically, prices rise leading up to Ramadan due to increased consumption.
There is a strong signal that middle and lower-class households are curbing their spending. The usual surge in shopping for Ramadan and Eid needs is absent this year, reflecting a significant shift in consumer behavior. The real sales index (IPR) showed a decline of about 0.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by reduced sales in the food and beverage categories. This lack of consumer activity further exacerbates the economic slowdown.
Despite some deflationary pressures, essential goods such as food have seen price increases since late 2023, further straining household budgets and limiting discretionary spending during the holiday season
These factors collectively illustrate a concerning economic landscape leading into Lebaran 2025, highlighting vulnerabilities within Indonesia's economy and the challenges faced by consumers.

The consumption anomalies observed during Lebaran 2025 can indeed be traced back to various policies and actions taken by previous administrations. Past decisions may have contributed to the current economic situation. Previous administrations may not have sufficiently diversified the economy, leading to over-reliance on specific sectors, such as manufacturing and commodities. This lack of diversification can make the economy more vulnerable to shocks, such as global economic downturns or fluctuations in commodity prices.

Policies related to labor rights and protections can impact employment stability. If previous administrations did not effectively address labor market issues, such as job security and fair wages, this could lead to higher rates of layoffs (PHK) during economic downturns, contributing to reduced household income and spending.The Omnibus Law can indeed be considered a factor in labor market policies that may have contributed to the anomalies observed during Lebaran 2025. The Omnibus Law on Job Creation, enacted in 2020, aimed to simplify regulations, attract investment, and create jobs in Indonesia. However, its implementation has had mixed reactions and implications for the labor market. One of the key criticisms of the Omnibus Law is that it potentially undermines job security for workers. By making it easier for companies to hire and fire employees, the law may contribute to higher rates of layoffs (PHK), particularly during economic downturns. This has direct implications for household incomes and consumer spending. The law allows for more flexible wage arrangements and reduces minimum wage protections in certain sectors. While this is intended to attract foreign investment, it can lead to lower earnings for workers, impacting their purchasing power and ability to spend during festive periods like Eid. The Omnibus Law has been seen as reducing protections for workers, which may lead to a more precarious employment situation. As job security diminishes, workers may become more cautious with their spending, saving more in anticipation of potential job losses.
The uncertainty surrounding job security and income stability can lead to decreased consumer confidence. When households feel insecure about their financial futures, they are less likely to spend on non-essential items during festive seasons like Lebaran. The overall economic stability is influenced by labor market conditions. High unemployment or underemployment can lead to reduced aggregate demand, resulting in lower consumption levels during key periods.
So, the Omnibus Law plays a significant role in shaping labor market policies that can impact economic conditions and consumer behavior. Its provisions regarding job security and wage flexibility may have contributed to the anomalies seen during Lebaran 2025 by affecting household incomes and consumer confidence. Addressing these challenges will require careful consideration of labor policies moving forward.

Decisions regarding public spending and investment in infrastructure and social programs can have long-term effects on economic growth. If previous governments did not prioritize investments in critical areas such as education, health care, and infrastructure, this could hinder overall economic development and consumer confidence.
The management of inflation rates by previous administrations could also play a role. If inflation was not adequately controlled, it could lead to rising prices for essential goods, further straining household budgets and limiting disposable income.

The effectiveness of social safety nets established by previous governments can influence how well households cope with economic challenges. If social assistance programs were underfunded or poorly designed, families might struggle more during tough economic times, impacting their ability to spend during festive seasons like Eid.
While social safety net programs under the previous administration aimed to address pressing economic issues, their implementation has been viewed by some as politically motivated. The effectiveness of these initiatives in genuinely improving the welfare of the population remains a topic of debate. For future administrations, it will be essential to ensure that social safety nets are part of a broader, more sustainable economic strategy rather than merely tools for political gain.
Social safety net programs, such as the Family Hope Program (PKH) and the Basic Food Card (Kartu Sembako), have been implemented as part of broader poverty alleviation efforts. Critics argue that these programs were strategically used to bolster political support, particularly in the lead-up to elections. The timing and promotion of these initiatives often coincided with electoral cycles, leading to perceptions that they were more about gaining votes than addressing systemic issues.
The effectiveness and reach of these programs have sometimes been questioned. While they aim to assist low-income families, there have been reports of inefficiencies, corruption, and mismanagement. Such issues can undermine public trust and lead to skepticism about the government's intentions.
While the programs may have provided short-term relief, questions remain about their long-term sustainability and impact on poverty reduction. Critics suggest that without accompanying structural reforms in areas such as education, health care, and employment, these safety nets may not lead to meaningful improvements in living standards.

Despite the current economic challenges are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including global economic conditions and recent developments, it is clear that decisions made by previous administrations have had lasting effects on Indonesia's economic resilience. Addressing these foundational issues will be crucial for improving consumer confidence and enhancing overall economic stability in the future.

[Bahasa]

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