Wednesday, April 8, 2026

The Wisdom of the Fish and the Crocodile

In a quiet office in Minahasa, North Sulawesi, Indonesia, a police officer, Aipda Vicky Aristo Katiandagho, sat staring at a stack of files marked “Corruption Case Confidential—alleged corruption case in the environmentally friendly bag procurement project in Minahasa.” He had spent long time tracing the flow of money, following the trail that led to powerful hands. One morning, a letter arrived—an official transfer to a remote island post, Talaud Islands Police. The timing was too perfect to be a coincidence.
That night, Vicky recorded a short video. His voice trembled, not with fear but with conviction. “If a fish comes out of the water to tell you the crocodile is sick,” he said, “believe it.” He handed in his resignation the next day.
The story spread like ripples across the country. Some called him reckless, others called him brave. But those who understood the proverb knew: when truth risks drowning, it takes courage to leap out of the water and speak. (This story is woven into a metaphorical form.)
"If a fish emerges from the water to tell you that the crocodile is ill, believe it!" This proverb, deceptively simple in its imagery, is saturated with symbolic and philosophical resonance. It is not merely a colourful turn of phrase but an invitation to perceive the world with greater acuity—both in the sphere of social and political life and in the domain of personal experience. To unpack its full significance is to encounter enduring truths about power, courage, knowledge, and the conditions under which wisdom becomes available to those willing to listen.

The proverb is most firmly traced to the Yoruba people of West Africa, particularly Nigeria, where it takes the form: "If the fish comes out of the water to say that the crocodile is ill, no one should doubt it." It was not composed by any single author but belongs to a communal, living tradition. In African oral traditions, proverbs are considered communally owned and passed down through generations—they are the oral libraries of doctrine, virtue, and social principles, carried by griots, elders, and storytellers around firesides, in marketplaces, and at ceremonies.
The Yoruba understanding of the proverb is quite precise: one should trust those with firsthand experience and knowledge, even if the truth seems hard to believe, and question those without direct experience, as it may just be gossip. The fish, living in the water alongside the crocodile every single day, is the only creature whose testimony cannot be doubted.
 
One of the most remarkable anecdotal transmissions of this wisdom comes from the African diaspora. In a scholarly study on Yoruba proverbs and Caribbean leadership, a fable originating in the Yoruba tradition was shared by a 78-year-old Cuban Yoruba high priest, Baba Ogunda Ariku, living in Havana—demonstrating how this oral tradition survived the Middle Passage and took root in Cuba, where Yoruba spiritual and cultural practices were preserved through centuries of slavery. It is a remarkable testimony to the resilience of this wisdom: the fish's message, in a sense, crossed an ocean.
 
The proverb exists in several regional variants across the continent. The BBC Africa shared a Ghanaian version: "If a frog comes out of the water and tells you the crocodile is dead, do not doubt it"—sent in from both Ghana and the United States, illustrating the proverb's transnational reach in the African diaspora. The substitution of the frog for the fish, and death for illness, sharpens the message further: the smaller, more vulnerable creature is always the most reliable witness.
4. The South African Folktale — The Fish Who Left the River

A related narrative appears in South African folklore. In a traditional South African folktale, fish serve as ambassadors sent by the crocodile — the acknowledged foreman of all water creatures — to negotiate a treaty with the Lion during a great drought. The fish are forced to cross dry land, suffering greatly in the burning sun, to deliver their message. The storyteller notes pointedly: "A fish on land is sometimes a very helpless thing, as you all know." The detail is telling: the fish's very vulnerability on land is what gives its mission moral weight. It did not cross the shore for trivial reasons.

In the contemporary world, the proverb has been applied with striking aptness to the figure of the whistleblower. One widely circulated modern commentary puts it directly: "The fish is the whistleblower"—an individual who speaks up at great personal cost, their credibility derived precisely from the risk they have taken to deliver the warning. This reading aligns the ancient proverb with modern cases such as those of government insiders who exposed institutional wrongdoing, people who were dismissed, punished, or marginalised for speaking an inconvenient truth—yet whose testimony, over time, proved correct.

It is worth noting a famous parallel from Western political rhetoric. Winston Churchill used the crocodile as a political metaphor in his critique of appeasement: "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." The image does what his wartime rhetoric always aimed to do— compress geopolitics into a moral tableau where hesitation becomes complicity. Though Churchill's crocodile belongs to a very different tradition, the convergence is striking: in both the Yoruba proverb and the Churchillian aphorism, the crocodile stands for a dangerous power whose true nature must not be denied, and courage in naming that truth is the highest political virtue.

The Socio-Political Dimension: Power, Vulnerability, and the Marginalised Voice

In the proverb's symbolic economy, the fish represents the common people—those voices most frequently overlooked, silenced, or dismissed by structures of authority. Yet it is precisely these voices that dwell closest to quotidian reality, bearing witness to conditions that those in elevated positions often fail to perceive. When the fish breaks the surface, it does something extraordinary: it leaves its natural element to deliver a message of consequence. The act itself—urgent, abnormal, costly—signals that the information carried is not trivial. Paulo Freire, writing in Pedagogy of the Oppressed (1970), argued that it is the oppressed, not the oppressor, who possess the clearest vision of systemic dysfunction, for they suffer its effects most directly and immediately.¹ The fish, in this reading, is the bearer of precisely that kind of knowledge.

The crocodile, by contrast, stands for power—formidable, ancient, and seemingly inviolable. Yet the proverb insists upon its illness. This detail is philosophically significant, for it subverts the common assumption that power is self-sustaining and immune to decay. Michel Foucault, in Discipline and Punish (1975), demonstrated that even the most totalising forms of power are fundamentally fragile, dependent upon elaborate systems of surveillance and enforcement to maintain their appearance of invincibility.² A crocodile that has fallen ill is, in this light, a power structure whose internal contradictions have begun to manifest—a system whose façade of strength masks a deepening vulnerability.

The proverb's imperative to believe the fish carries profound implications for political life. It suggests that wisdom, in the socio-political realm, consists not in the consultation of official narratives or the counsel of those nearest to power, but in attentiveness to the testimony of the marginalised. To ignore the fish is to close one's eyes to the early signs of systemic collapse; to heed it is to open a path towards justice and social transformation. In this sense, the proverb resonates with a long tradition of thinking that locates truth not at the centre but at the periphery—not in the pronouncements of the powerful but in the experiences of those whom power has pushed to the margins.

The Personal Dimension: Courage, Intuition, and the Fragility of Certainty

At the level of personal experience, the proverb speaks to the themes of courage and intuition with remarkable directness. The fish departing from water is an act that defies the logic of self-preservation: water is the fish's element, its habitat, the medium of its survival. To leave it, even briefly, is to court mortal risk. This image maps onto those moments in human life when an individual must step beyond the boundaries of comfort, convention, or safety in order to speak an urgent truth. Hannah Arendt, in The Human Condition (1958), argued that the willingness to act in the public sphere—to expose oneself to the gaze of others and to take the risk of speaking—is the very foundation of political freedom and authentic selfhood.³ The fish's emergence from the water is, in Arendtian terms, a moment of genuine political action: rare, costly, and irreducibly meaningful.

The proverb also invites reflection upon what it means when those who are habitually silent suddenly speak, or when absent signs begin to appear. Such departures from the ordinary carry a weight that routine occurrences do not. They demand a different quality of attention—one that is willing to entertain uncomfortable possibilities, to revise settled assumptions, to acknowledge that the structures one has taken for granted may be less secure than they appear. Albert Camus, in The Myth of Sisyphus (1942), proposed that the highest form of personal wisdom lies in confronting the absurdity of existence without flinching—in refusing the consolations of false certainty and embracing, instead, the condition of perpetual openness.⁴ The fish's message about the crocodile's illness is, in this sense, an absurd message: it contradicts the prevailing order of perception and asks us to believe what our habits of mind would resist.

The crocodile, in the personal register, becomes a metaphor for those things in our own lives that we have mistakenly regarded as immutable: relationships that seemed unbreakable, careers that appeared indestructible, convictions about ourselves and the world that we had never thought to question. The proverb teaches that strength is never absolute, that every apparent certainty contains the seed of its own undoing, and that the willingness to perceive this—however unsettling—is the beginning of genuine wisdom. To believe the fish is, at the personal level, to cultivate an intellectual and emotional humility that keeps one responsive to the unexpected.

The Proverb as Critique and Guide: Towards an Integrated Wisdom

What makes this proverb particularly rich is that it operates simultaneously as social critique and personal counsel. In the first capacity, it challenges every complacent acceptance of authority, reminding those who possess or observe power that invulnerability is an illusion and that the voices least likely to be consulted are often the most truthful. In the second capacity, it challenges the individual to develop the perceptual and moral faculties necessary for receiving uncomfortable news—to resist the temptation to dismiss the unusual, the marginal, or the counter-intuitive, and to cultivate instead the kind of sustained, generous attention that wisdom requires.

There is, moreover, a dimension of reciprocity in the proverb's logic that deserves emphasis. The fish takes a risk to deliver its message. That act of risk-taking is itself a form of testimony: it transforms the message into something more than information, investing it with the moral weight of sacrifice. To receive such testimony with scepticism or indifference is not merely an epistemic failure but an ethical one—a refusal to honour the courage that the communication demanded. Freire's insistence that genuine education requires a dialogical relationship between teacher and learner, in which the learner's experience is taken seriously as a source of knowledge, finds a striking echo in this dimension of the proverb's meaning.¹

Similarly, Foucault's analysis of the ways in which power produces and suppresses knowledge illuminates the proverb's implicit politics.² The fish's message is, in a sense, a piece of knowledge that the crocodile's power would prefer to keep submerged. That it surfaces at all is a small act of resistance—a momentary disruption of the dominant narrative. To believe it is to align oneself, however briefly, with the claims of truth against the claims of power.

Arendt's account of the fragility of public life—its dependence upon the willingness of individuals to act and speak even when the outcome is uncertain—gives the proverb an additional dimension of urgency.³ The world in which the fish's testimony goes unheeded is a world in which public life has contracted, in which the common space for truth-telling has been diminished by indifference or fear. Conversely, the world in which such testimony is received and acted upon is one in which the conditions for genuine political community are, however precariously, maintained.

Finally, Camus's existential ethics of lucidity and courage suggests that the proverb is not merely a prescription for social or political behaviour but a portrait of the philosophically honest life.⁴ To live in the manner the proverb commends is to accept that certainty is never final, that the unexpected is always possible, and that the capacity to be surprised—and to respond to surprise with openness rather than denial—is among the most important human faculties. It is, in Camus's terms, to live without illusions, which is not a counsel of despair but, paradoxically, the condition of genuine hope.

Conclusion

The proverb of the fish and the crocodile resonates across centuries and cultures because it gives expression to a cluster of perennial truths. It reminds us that power is inherently fragile; that the most important messages often come from the least expected sources; that courage and wisdom are inseparable; and that genuine understanding requires a willingness to be disturbed. In the public realm, it calls us to humility before authority, to vigilance regarding those voices that have been pushed to the margins, and to openness to the subtle signs that life continuously offers. In the private realm, it reminds us that the things we take for granted may be more precarious than they appear, and that wisdom lies in the readiness to hear and believe what we might prefer to ignore. Ultimately, the fish that emerges from the water to speak of the crocodile's illness is not merely a bearer of information: it is an emblem of the courage that truth requires, and of the willingness to listen that wisdom demands.
References 
  1. Freire, Paulo. Pedagogy of the Oppressed. 1970. New York: Continuum Publishing. Emphasises the voices of the oppressed as the primary source of social truth and transformative knowledge.
  2. Foucault, Michel. Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison. 1975. Paris: Gallimard. Demonstrates that power, however dominant in appearance, is structurally fragile and reliant upon mechanisms of surveillance to perpetuate itself.
  3. Arendt, Hannah. The Human Condition. 1958. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Argues that the individual's willingness to act and speak in the public sphere constitutes the essential foundation of political freedom.
  4. Camus, Albert. The Myth of Sisyphus. 1942. Paris: Gallimard. Proposes that the courageous confrontation with life's absurdity, without recourse to false certainty, is the defining gesture of personal wisdom.

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Tuesday, April 7, 2026

The Fiscal Endurance of Indonesia’s State Budget in 2026

On 6 April 2026, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa made a declaration that drew immediate and widespread attention: the prices of subsidised fuels—namely Pertalite petrol and subsidised diesel—would not be raised for the remainder of the 2026 fiscal year. The commitment was delivered before Commission XI of the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat/DPR) at a time when global crude oil prices were climbing sharply, driven by an escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The announcement at once raised a fundamental fiscal question: how robust is Indonesia’s State Budget (Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara/APBN) in sustaining such a pledge?

This essay presents a comprehensive analysis of the APBN 2026’s fiscal endurance under the strain of swelling energy subsidies. The analysis is structured around three principal dimensions: the initial fiscal position that formed the policy’s point of departure; stress-test scenarios constructed on differing oil price assumptions; and the layered budgetary defences that the government has assembled as shock absorbers.

An Analysis of Budgetary Resilience Amid Mounting Fuel Subsidy Pressures and Global Oil Price Volatility
  
The Initial Fiscal Position and Structural Pressures

The 2026 APBN was designed with total state expenditure of Rp3,786.5 trillion and a revenue target of Rp3,147.7 trillion, yielding a planned deficit of Rp638.8 trillion, equivalent to 2.48 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The macro assumption underpinning the entire framework set the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) at USD 70 per barrel—a figure that proved to be a significant underestimate of actual market conditions.

In the original design, the government allocated Rp210.1 trillion for energy subsidies, comprising Rp25.14 trillion for specific-grade fuel subsidies, Rp80.26 trillion for 3-kilogram LPG cylinders, and Rp104.64 trillion for electricity subsidies. When combined with energy compensation payments, the total subsidy and compensation envelope stood at Rp381.3 trillion. The surge in global oil prices to approximately USD 103 per barrel by early April 2026, however, rendered these figures materially inadequate.

The most telling indicator of this pressure is the budget’s sensitivity to oil price movements: every USD 1 rise in the crude price per barrel adds up to Rp6.8 trillion to the subsidy burden. With the gap between the APBN assumption (USD 70/bbl) and the actual price (approximately USD 103/bbl) standing at USD 33 per barrel, the potential additional exposure across a full fiscal year exceeds Rp200 trillion—a pressure that is no longer marginal in character, but structural.
 
Scenario Analysis: Stress-Testing the APBN

The Ministry of Finance has prepared a series of stress-test scenarios reflecting differing oil price trajectories throughout the year. These scenarios provide a clear picture of the critical thresholds at which the APBN’s resilience begins to fracture.
Optimistic scenario: USD 86 per barrel

At an average oil price of USD 86 per barrel, with the rupiah exchange rate at Rp17,000 per US dollar, projections indicate that the APBN deficit would reach 3.18 per cent of GDP. This already breaches the legal ceiling stipulated in State Finance Law No. 17 of 2003, which caps the deficit at 3 per cent of GDP. Paradoxically, even the scenario labelled ‘optimistic’ would place the government outside its own statutory fiscal corridor. Exceeding this threshold requires parliamentary approval, carrying significant implications for Indonesia’s fiscal reputation in the eyes of international investors and rating agencies.
Moderate scenario: USD 97 per barrel

At USD 97 per barrel with the rupiah at Rp17,300 per US dollar, the deficit is projected to widen to 3.53 per cent of GDP. Significantly, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto stated explicitly that subsidised fuel prices could only be maintained throughout 2026 as long as the average oil price did not exceed USD 97 per barrel. This means the moderate scenario itself effectively represents the upper boundary of the government’s commitment without additional fiscal intervention.
Purbaya’s commitment ceiling: USD 100 per barrel annual average

This is the scenario in which the government has formally pledged to hold subsidised fuel prices. Assuming an annual average of USD 100 per barrel — which implies some months above and some below that figure — the government is targeting a deficit of approximately 2.92 per cent of GDP. This outcome is achievable only if every layer of the budgetary defence mechanism (discussed in Section IV) operates fully and simultaneously. In other words, there is no margin for any single mitigating mechanism to fall short of its target.
Pessimistic and tail-risk scenarios: USD 115–150 per barrel

At USD 115 per barrel with the rupiah at Rp17,500 per US dollar, the deficit is projected to reach 4.06 per cent of GDP, equivalent to approximately Rp1,004 trillion. At this level, the government’s debt ratio could approach or exceed 45 per cent of GDP, narrowing monetary policy manoeuvre space and substantially increasing debt servicing costs. At the extreme tail of USD 150 per barrel — a scenario Purbaya himself has acknowledged—the Saldo Anggaran Lebih (SAL) fiscal reserve becomes the only remaining instrument of defence. Under such conditions, the APBN would no longer be able to stand on its own structural footing.
 
Six Layers of Fiscal Defence

The government is not relying solely on the existing budget posture. Its fiscal defence strategy is deployed in layers, with each serving as a buffer before the next is activated.

The first layer is the energy subsidy allocation within the APBN itself (Rp210.1 trillion), constituting the primary line of defence. The second is expenditure efficiency across ministries and government agencies, implemented in stages by trimming budget lines deemed less of a priority. The third layer draws on windfall gains from Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) in the energy and mineral resources sector: paradoxically, elevated oil and coal prices simultaneously boost state revenues, a portion of which can be redirected to offset the very subsidy burden they create. The fourth layer involves PT Pertamina acting as a temporary absorber, whereby the state-owned enterprise initially bears the price differential before receiving government compensation of approximately 70 per cent per month on a rolling basis.

The fifth layer is the B50 biodiesel programme, scheduled to take effect on 1 July 2026. By reducing dependence on fossil-based fuel by approximately 4 million kilolitres, the programme is projected to cut the energy subsidy burden by up to Rp48 trillion — a saving of considerable significance. The sixth and final layer is the SAL reserve of Rp420 trillion, held at Bank Indonesia (Rp120 trillion) and a consortium of state-owned banks or Himbara (Rp300 trillion). The SAL represents an accumulation of unspent budget surpluses from previous fiscal years, and Purbaya has stated unequivocally that this instrument will only be activated under genuinely pressing circumstances, and only with the consent of Commission XI of the DPR.
 
Critical Pressure Points and Medium-Term Risks

Whilst the APBN can technically sustain the fuel price freeze through end-2026 under the government’s central commitment scenario (USD 100/bbl annual average), several risks demand careful scrutiny.

First, exchange rate risk functions as an amplifier. Every Rp100 depreciation in the rupiah per US dollar does increase state revenues by approximately Rp5.3 trillion, but it simultaneously raises state expenditure by Rp6.1 trillion — yielding a net deficit-widening effect. Should rupiah depreciation coincide with a surge in oil prices, the cumulative impact would be considerably more severe than the arithmetical sum of either factor in isolation.

Secondly, there is a high degree of dependence on the simultaneous success of all defensive layers. The government’s target of a 2.92 per cent deficit at USD 100/bbl is only realisable if ministry expenditure efficiency, PNBP windfall revenues, the B50 programme, and Pertamina’s absorptive capacity all perform in accordance with their respective targets. Failure in any single one of these mechanisms would push the deficit dangerously close to the legal 3 per cent ceiling.

Thirdly, the fiscal position as at end-March 2026 already shows a deficit of Rp240.1 trillion, or 0.93 per cent of GDP, within the first three months of the fiscal year alone. Should this pace of expenditure continue — and subsidy pressures tend to intensify rather than ease as oil prices rise — the annual deficit target will come under increasing strain. Tax revenue growth of 20.7 per cent year-on-year provides a degree of relief, but the 3 per cent decline in PNBP, attributable to the rerouting of state-owned enterprise dividends to the Danantara investment vehicle, is a signal that warrants vigilance.

Fourthly, under the pessimistic scenario (USD 115/bbl), even the Rp420 trillion SAL would prove insufficient to bridge the deficit gap on its own. At a deficit level of 4.06 per cent of GDP (Rp1,004 trillion), the gap between the actual deficit and a fiscally sustainable position exceeds what the SAL can patch without fundamentally compromising its function as a long-term national reserve.
 
Conclusion

Indonesia’s 2026 APBN finds itself in a position that is technically manageable, yet genuinely precarious. The government’s commitment not to raise subsidised fuel prices is a pledge that can be honoured through end-2026 — but only under one very specific and demanding set of conditions: that the average annual crude oil price does not exceed USD 100 per barrel, that the rupiah exchange rate remains relatively stable, that every mitigation programme performs as designed, and that no additional external shocks arrive to further erode the fiscal position.

Put differently, the APBN 2026 possesses sufficient resilience to complete this fiscal year without reneging on its subsidy commitment, but with virtually no margin for error. The Rp420 trillion SAL is a formidable last line of defence — but it is not an inexhaustible one. In the medium term, absent a more targeted subsidy reform and a broadened national revenue base, the policy of suppressing fuel prices in an era of geopolitical instability will continue to place Indonesia’s public finances on an ever-narrowing ledge each time global oil markets are thrown into turmoil.

The most important lesson of this analysis is not whether the APBN will hold—but rather the price that must be paid for that resilience, and whether that price is commensurate with the social protection it affords to the population it is designed to serve.

Key fiscal parameters (APBN 2026)

Original subsidy & compensation budget

Rp381T

Baseline allocation

Additional subsidy burden

+Rp90–100T

Due to oil price shock

Total projected subsidy outlay

~Rp481T

Revised upward

SAL fiscal buffer

Rp420T

Emergency reserve

Sensitivity per USD $1/bbl rise

Rp6.8T

Additional subsidy cost

APBN deficit at end-March 2026

Rp240T

0.93% of GDP

Stress-test scenarios — fiscal endurance by oil price

ScenarioOil price (ICP)Deficit/GDPVerdict
APBN baselineUSD 70/bbl2.48–2.68%Safe
OptimisticUSD 86/bbl~3.18%Watch
Moderate (Gov't ceiling)USD 97/bbl~3.53%Stretched
Purbaya's commitment ceilingUSD 100/bbl avg~2.92% (targeted)Manageable
PessimisticUSD 115/bbl~4.06%Critical
Extreme tailUSD 150/bbl>4.5% est.SAL required

Legal ceiling under UU Keuangan Negara No. 17/2003 is 3% of GDP. Breaching it requires parliamentary consent. Under the optimistic scenario, this ceiling is already breached.

Layers of fiscal defence — stacked buffers

Layer 1 — existing APBN subsidy allocation (Rp210T energy subsidi)
Layer 2 — ministry & agency (K/L) expenditure efficiency savings
Layer 3 — PNBP windfall from rising commodity prices (oil, coal)
Layer 4 — Pertamina absorbs short-term via monthly compensation (70%/mo)
Layer 5 — biodiesel B50 rollout (July 2026, saves ~Rp48T)
Layer 6 — SAL emergency reserve (Rp420T — last resort)

Layers are deployed sequentially. The government has stated SAL will only be activated if Layers 1–5 prove insufficient. Each layer narrows the fiscal gap, reducing dependence on the reserve.

Endurance timeline — how long can the APBN hold?

Sources: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia; Working Session of Commission XI, DPR RI (6 April 2026); ANTARA; Kompas.id; CNBC Indonesia; VIVA; Tempo.