Saturday, December 23, 2023

Stories from Sansevieria: Political Thought's Evolution (10)

"A student, who's learning martial arts, was asked by his teacher to memorize the gravity's fourth law, sat under an apple tree, and, a few moments later, exclaimed, 'Aha!'
He immediately reported his invention to teacher that he had found a new theory which he called, 'The Red Apple Tragedy'. The teacher demanded him to define it briefly.
'It turns out,' explained the student, 'that the red apple, is not too different from its tree!'"

"Why do we ask question?" said Sansevieria while opening a photo album. "In everyday life, we often ask questions, even though they are not important, for example we ask our favorite satay seller a simple question about why he wipes his forehead with vein oil, and he would answer, 'I've been around offering satay but it hasn't been sold yet, my head is getting dizzy.'
We live in a fast-paced, demanding, results-oriented world. New technologies place vast quantities of information at our fingertips in nanoseconds. We want problems solved instantly, results yesterday, answers immediately, says Michael J. Marquardt. We are exhorted to forget 'ready, aim, fire' and to shoot now and shoot again. Leaders are expected to be decisive, bold, charismatic, and visionary—to know all the answers even before others have thought of the questions.
Ironically, if we respond to these pressures—or believe the hype about visionary leaders so prominent in the business press—we risk sacrificing the very thing we need to lead effectively. When the people around us clamor for fast answers—sometimes, any answer—we need to be able to resist the impulse to provide solutions and instead learn to ask questions. Most leaders are unaware of the amazing power of questions—how they can generate short-term results and long-term learning and success. The problem is, we feel that we are supposed to have answers, not questions.
Too often, when we encounter a question, we already have an answer. But sometimes we must ask questions whose answer we do not know. People become leaders in organizations for many reasons, but one of the primary reasons is, says Marquardt, that they build track records as problem solvers and being able to get results.

Each question a leader asks can provide a wonderful opportunity for the recipients to become empowered, to do something that they could not do before. Questions have the potential to create confidence, to enhance learning, to develop competence, to engender insights. Questions can move each person in the organization to become a better human being as well as a better contributor to the organization and to the community.
One of the most difficult challenges you may have as a leader is to accept that you may not know what is right, or best, for most situations. We have become accustomed to having the right answers, so it’s hard to let go of the answer-providing habit.
We want to protect our self-image and our image in the eyes of others; we also want to protect ourselves from uncomfortable feelings such as fear. Exposing ourselves with questions offers risks on all these fronts. But people rarely start out this way.
Asking questions is a natural part of our biological makeup. Ask any parent of a child under the age of three about how children love to ask questions. Unfortunately, most of us are told by our parents, teachers, and bosses to stop asking questions. Not only are we told not to ask questions, but when we do ask a question not considered appropriate or correct, we are ridiculed. As a result, we become afraid to ask questions. We begin to think that smart people do not need to ask questions, as they already have the answers. We protect ourselves from being perceived as stupid by not asking questions. So when we become leaders, we of course want to be the one with the answers rather than the one with questions.

According to M. Neil Browne and Stuart M. Keeley, questions require the person being asked the question to act in response. By our questions, we are saying to the person: I am curious; I want to know more; help me. This request shows respect for the other person. The questions exist to inform and provide direction for all who hear them. The point of your questions is that you need help to have a deeper understanding or appreciation of what is being said. Lots of experts are available to advise you. Opinions are cheap; anyone can have one of those. But which expert possesses the kind of knowledge that gives us an opinion on which we can rely?
As a thoughtful person, you must make a choice about how you will react to what you see and hear. One alternative is to just accept whatever you encounter; doing so automatically results in your making someone else's opinion your own. A more active alternative consists of asking questions in an effort to reach a personal decision about the worth of what you have experienced.
In this respect, critical thinking—which you can express in some critical questions— begins with the desire to improve what we think. As a citizen and consumer, you should find it especially helpful in shaping your voting behavior and your purchasing decisions, as well as in improving your self-confidence by increasing your sense of intellectual independence. The more information you absorb about the world, the more capable you are of understanding its complexities. One approach to thinking is similar to the way in which a sponge reacts to water: by absorbing. Knowledge you have acquired provides a foundation for more complicated thinking later.
Our ability to find definite answers to questions often depends on the type of question that puzzles us. Scientific questions about the physical world are the most likely to have answers that reasonable people will accept, because the physical world is in certain ways more dependable or predictable than the social world. While the precise distance to the moon or the age of a newly discovered bone from an ancient civilization may not be absolutely certain, agreement about the dimensions of our physical environment is widespread. Thus, in the physical sciences, we frequently can arrive at 'the right answer.'

Questions about human behavior are different. 'The right answer' might be a myth. The causes of human behavior are so complex that we frequently cannot do much more than form intelligent guesses about why or when certain behavior will occur. In addition, because many of us care a great deal about explanations and descriptions of human behavior, we prefer that explanations or descriptions of the rate of abortion, the frequency of unemployment, or the causes of child abuse be consistent with what we want to believe. Hence, we bring our preferences to any discussion of those issues and resist arguments that are inconsistent with them.
Because human behavior is so controversial and complex, the best answers that we can find for many questions about our behavior will be probabilistic in nature. Even if we were aware of every bit of evidence about the effects of exercise on our mental health, we could still not expect certainty about those effects. We still need to commit to a particular course of action to prevent our becoming a 'hollow man' or a 'nowhere woman'. But once we acknowledge that our commitments are based on probability and not certainty, we will be much more open to the reasoning of those who are trying to persuade us to change our minds. After all, we may well be wrong about some of our beliefs. Even though you will not necessarily arrive at the 'right answer' to social controversies, you should to develop your best and most reasonable answer, given the nature of the problem and the available information.

When you first encounter a conclusion, you do so with a history. You have learned to care about certain things, to support particular interests, and to discount claims of a particular type. So you always start to think critically in the midst of existing opinions. You have emotional commitments to these existing opinions.
When we read or listen, it is so easy to ignore what was said in the previous paragraph. We often react to the images, dramatic illustrations, or tone of what was said instead of the reasoning that was intended by the person communicating with us. Each time we fail to react to the reasoning, human conversation has experienced a defeat. We are not connecting as the person who wrote or spoke to us intended. So, getting straight about the person's conclusion and issue is an essential first step in effective human interaction.
Emotional involvement should not be the primary basis for accepting or rejecting a position. Ideally, emotional involvement should be most intense after reasoning has occurred. Thus, when you listen, try to avoid letting emotional involvement cut you off from the reasoning of those with whom you initially disagree. A successful active learner is one who is willing to change his mind. If you are ever to change your mind, you must be as open as possible to ideas that strike you as weird or dangerous when you first encounter them.
Asking good questions is difficult but rewarding work. Some controversies will be much more important to you than others. When the consequences of a controversy for you and your community are minimal, you will want to spend less time and energy thinking critically about it than about more important controversies.

Now that we understand why we ask question, let's talk about an overview of our question about 'term limits.' What could presidents do, if they decided to prolong their rule? According to Baturo, the menu of choice depends on a country's constitutional and political history, but there is ample room for constitutional imagination as well. In the case of the Russian regime in 2008, its president could have simply amended the constitution and allowed an additional third term ad hoc—as President of Namibia Sam Nujoma (1990–2005) did in 1998—or he could have dropped term limits altogether, as President Alexander Lukashenko (1994–) in neighboring Belarus did in 2004. The option of appointing oneself for life and abolishing elections was certainly rather archaic. Alternatively, the Russian president could have pursued a further integration with one of the former Soviet states and become the head of a new state. The president could have also reconfigured the political regime and empowered the prime ministerial office at the expense of the presidency and then become the head of cabinet.

There were still other, more ingenious designs. The president could have stepped down but in fact retained executive control and ruled by proxy. Certainly there were historical precedents for the latter, albeit in different locales. For example, in Mexico between 1917 and 1936, political power was either intermittently shared between the president at the time and the national political boss, the head of the ruling party, or the latter ruled via proxies that occupied the presidential palace. In 1917–20 and later in 1924–28 the real power was yielded by party boss Álvaro Obregón, who himself had been the president in 1920–24, rather than by Presidents Venustiano Carranza and Plutarco Calles. From the assassination of Obregón in 1928 until 1936, when President Lázaro Cárdenas finally became the sole ruler, a duality of power existed. Similarly, in his fascinating account of life under the regime of Rafael Trujillo (1930–61, formal terms in 1930–38 and 1942–52) in the Dominican Republic, Vargas Llosa described how the latter, in order to deflect international criticism, designated four different successors including his own brother to serve between his own terms, while himself remaining the de facto ruler of a country.
Such situations whereby the de facto ruler 'does not always occupy the position that is constitutionally the most powerful, a policy called politique de doublure, or ‘politics of understudy’.
Such an arrangement does not always work however. Anastasio Garciá Somoza of Nicaragua (1936–56) who had to formally step down in 1947 under US pressure, installed the figurehead 72-year-old President Leonardo Argüello. The latter, however, turned on his master and tried to govern unaided. He was ousted only 26 days after inauguration. Somoza then placed another figurehead that proved more compliant, yet in 1950 decided to return to office formally as the president. After his assassination in 1956, his sons Luiz and Anastasio took turns ruling the country.

Vladimir Putin maintained suspense until October 2, 2007, when he announced his decision to lead the list of the party of power, United Russia, in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which were promptly won by that party, gaining the legislative super-majority. Then, on December 10, 2007, he endorsed deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, a close member of his circle, to become his successor. The day after the succession plan was revealed, Medvedev, in turn, invited Putin to become his prime minister following the March 2, 2008, presidential election. Also, seemingly straight from the Caesar's vocabulary, in the last two years of his second term President Putin was frequently referred to as the 'national leader,' whether in presidential office or not. There was no surprise when President Medvedev, having won elections by a landslide, indeed appointed Putin as prime minister on May 8, 2008, the day after his own inauguration. From that moment, the configuration of Russian executive power was to resemble the earlier described situation in Mexico, with the powerful jefe maximo alongside the president. Yet it was not immediately clear whether Putin would remain the de facto leader with a proxy president, effectively prolonging his tenure, or if he would share political power with the latter and possibly retire after making sure his successor's hold on power was secure. While Dmitry Medvedev occupied an all powerful presidency with extensive powers and formal authority over appointments and dismissals, at the same time his predecessor retained control over the executive in the capacity of prime minister and was also able both to impeach the president and to change the constitution, given the legislative super-majority in the Duma if needed.

The practices of contemporary world presidents provide the menu of possible options for political survival beyond constitutional term limits. Presidents can also combine several changes at the same time, usually by lengthening the term while simultaneously discarding time already served.
When new constitutions are drafted, many articles are inserted automatically, without much thought or deliberation. Term limits almost always appear in contemporary national constitutions, either after independence or after introduction of multiparty democracy. They become very salient, however, when the time to depart looms large before the presidents. In such times, rulers perform interesting feats of constitutional engineering—their second terms become first, or their third terms become second, or a number of years served in office are erased, or extra years become necessary in order to carry out a particular policy. Presidents rewrite and reinterpret their constitutions, often imaginatively; but they also encounter opposition from other institutions, from their own parties, civil society, international donors, and allies. They persist, however, and are often successful in staying beyond their designated mandates.

We have gone through our sessions starting from Monarchy, Feudalism, Aristocracy (including Oligarchy), and in the next session, as the final episode, let's talk a little bit about democracy from a certain perspective. Bi 'idhnillah."

Afterwards, Sansevieria sang Anita Sarawak's song,

Mungkin kau belum merasa gelisah
[Perhaps you don't feel anxious yet]
dan terlepas dari rasa ragu
[and let go of doubt]
Namun dirimu itu tersimpan jua
[But you also have ]
seribu tanya, seribu sapa *)
[a thousand questions, a thousand reprimands]
Citations & References:
- Michael J. Marquardt, Leading with Questions: How Leaders Find the Right Solutions by Knowing What to Ask, 2014, Jossey-Bass
- M. Neil Browne & Stuart M. Keeley, Asking the Right Questions, 2007, Pearson College Div
- Alexander Baturo, Democracy, Dictatorship, and Term Limits, 2014, The University of Michigan Press
- Stanley M. Caress & Todd T. Kunioka, Term limits and Their Consequences: The Aftermath of Legislative Reform, 2012, Suny Press.
*) "Tragedi Buah Apel" written by Dani Mamesah & Irwan S Samosir

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Stories from Sansevieria: Political Thought's Evolution (9)

"Political expert from 'Uncle Sam' was observing the candidate debate in Indonesia, and was asked about the differences between Democracy and Dictatorship, here's the Q&A:
Q: What is democracy?
A: Imagine that you have children, your distant neighbors have children, your close neighbors have children, all of them are planning to sell bananas. Your children, you neighbors children, far and near, are allowed to shout and offering their bananas to anyone and everyone.
Q: And what about Dictatorship?
A: Imagine that you have children, your distant neighbors have children, your close neighbors have children, all of them are planning to sell bananas. Afraid of being imprisoned and probably their bananas will be confiscated, your neighbours children, can't even talk either selling bananas.
Your children, are allowed to say anything they want and offering their bananas to anyone without worrying about being jailed and confiscated. However, they can't avoid to 'slip on banana peel'."

"Why do 'term limits' found in presidential and semi-presidential systems, show us that they are restricted on a number of terms, or in another words, they—and we do too—are living in a short term world?" said Sansevieria while putting together some pictures on the wall. Then she pointed at a picture and said, "This Michael Julius Motta's portrait, tells us that Humans have always been short term thinkers and doers. And that’s a good thing. If early humans hadn’t asked questions like 'Where’s my next meal?' or 'Where will I sleep tonight?', our species wouldn’t have lasted very long. Early humans were short term people because they had no choice.
We, whom Darwin called 'Modern Apes', however, do have a choice. We needn’t concern ourselves with day-to-day survival. Instead, we can concern ourselves with the year-to-year and the decade-to-decade. Yet, so few of us do. Almost everyone we know has aspirations they will accomplish 'someday, when I have more time.'
A sad truth of the human condition: Most people die regretting things they thought about doing but never actually did. Another sad truth: Each of us thinks we are the exception.
Society judges people not by their long term pursuit of highly-personal goals, but instead by their short term pursuit of goals more societally acceptable. The world expects us to be short term and is surprised when we aren’t. When we act long term, we get strange looks and a million other signals from society telling us we’re living life all wrong.

Someone who actively resists the gravitational pull of the short term world and takes strategic actions in pursuance of long term goals, and who does so consistently is, according to Motta, a long term person.
Of course, we can’t leave the short term world behind, nor do we want to. Much of the short term world is fantastic. The ability to be spontaneous and live in the moment, these are some of the best parts of the human experience. Life often requires us to be short term. We must put food on the table tonight, not a year from now.
A long term person, cultivates and develops these following three characteristics. Discipline: Doing the long term work every day. Finding reasons, not excuses; Grit: Maintaining a long term focus even when society demands conformity; Self—awareness: Discipline and grit without self-awareness risks making us a long term person in the wrong direction. We must know ourselves and what we want from this world before we can go out and get it.
The bottom line is: Who we are in the short term is who we become in the long term. Unless we align our day-to-day, week-to-week actions with the month-to-month, year-to-year person we want to be, we will not become that person. If you can’t do it today, you won’t be able to do it tomorrow, and if you can’t do it tomorrow, you never will. A long term person starts today. A long term person starts now.
To get where you want to go, you first have to assess where you’re currently going. Your current short term actions are leading you in a long term direction. Unless you identify that direction, you can’t change it. Most people have numerous aspirations, some out in the open, others yet to escape their lips, many hidden in the subconscious.
Our long term selves are well-served by incorporation of routines that improve mental and physical health. Even if none are directly linked to the achievement of any one specific goal, they maximize our resources and improve the efficacy of our systems. You need not study quantum physics, run marathons, or become a Buddhist monk, but simple steps can strengthen your most important faculties.
While we’re completing our most important tasks, the short term world lives on. It has not forgotten about us. We must face the reality that we have no choice but to keep our long term and short term balls in the air. We must be good spouses, parents, and friends. We must get our oil changed and reply to this e-mail and that text. And we must fit time in for our passion projects.

Portrait by Roman Krznaric tells us other perspective about long term - short term world. Matto tells us about how to see ourselves, while Krznaric suggests us about how to think long term in a short-term world.
Perhaps, when we have ambition to ‘be of some help to humankind’ and to leave a positive legacy for future generations, we straighten out our intentions with asking a question: ‘Are we being good ancestors?’
We are the inheritors of gifts from the past. Consider the immense legacy left by our ancestors: those who sowed the first seeds in Mesopotamia 10,000 years ago, who cleared the land, built the waterways and founded the cities where we now live, who made the scientific discoveries, won the political struggles and created the great works of art that have been passed down to us. As Indonesian, we would agree that our 'founding parents' have left us good things, even though almost all of their names have been forgotten by history. We seldom stop to think about how they have transformed our lives.

Becoming a good ancestor is a formidable task. Our chances of doing so will be determined by the outcome of a struggle for the human mind currently taking place on a global scale between the opposing forces of short-term and long-term thinking.
At this moment in history the dominant force is clear: we live in an age of pathological short-termism. Politicians can barely see beyond the next election or the latest opinion poll or tweet. Businesses are slaves to the next quarterly report and the constant demand to ratchet up shareholder value. Markets spike then crash in speculative bubbles driven by millisecond-speed algorithms. Nations bicker around international conference tables, focused on their near-term interests, while the planet burns and species disappear. Our culture of instant gratification makes us overdose on fast food, rapid-fire texting and the ‘Buy Now’ button. ‘The great irony of our time,’ writes the anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson, ‘is that even as we are living longer, we are thinking shorter.’ This is the age of the tyranny of the now.

Thus, how will the people of the future remember us? Most of us hope that our actions and influence will somehow ripple into the years ahead, ensuring that the fire of our own life keeps burning beyond the inevitability of death. Few people truly wish to be forgotten forever.
But we choose to express our legacy in very different ways. Some pursue an egocentric form of legacy, hoping to be remembered and glorified for their personal achievements. That was the approach of Alexander the Great, who had statues of himself built throughout his empire, including at the sacred Greek site of Olympia. The legacy he sought was to be venerated in perpetuity for his heroic actions and brilliant conquests, and to be memorialised like a god – unsurprising for someone who claimed to be a direct descendant of Zeus. Today’s corporate oligarchs who use their philanthropic largesse to have buildings, football stadiums and museum wings named after themselves have similar ambitions.
A more common aspiration is to leave a familial legacy, typically in the form of an inheritance written into a will for children, grandchildren or extended family and ranging from money and property to precious family heirlooms. It is the kind of legacy valued by aristocrats who want to keep their landed estate within the family bloodline, in the hope of leaving enough money for their children to have more opportunities in life than they did. For many people, it is less important to leave material possessions than to pass down their values and culture, whether in the form of religious beliefs, native languages or family traditions.

If we truly wish to become good ancestors, we need to expand our conception of legacy and think of it not just as a route to personal glory or as a bequest for our offspring, but as a practice of everyday life that benefits all future people. We need to get better at imagining ourselves when we are much older, and that this would somehow be a stepping stone to caring about future generations.
A legacy is not something that we leave but something we grow throughout our lives. It is not just a bequest written into a will, but a daily practice. We grow our legacy as parents and friends, as workers and citizens, as creators and activists and as members of communities. It is about being mindful of the consequences of our actions into the distant future, whether through the way we shop or the way we vote. It is about passing on a world that is fit for the flourishing of life. It is about planting acorns in the ground on behalf of those yet to come.

Why should I care about future generations? What have they ever done for me? We are now faced with one of the most urgent social questions of the twenty-first century: what obligations and responsibilities do we have to the generations who will succeed us? If we have an obligation not to plant a bomb on a train that would harm a child now, we have the same obligation not to do so if it was timed to go off in ten minutes, or ten days or even ten years from now.
If we think back to our own forebears, there are many things that we might wish they had never passed on to us, from the inheritance of colonial-era feudalism and patriarchal attitudes that still have a hold in so many countries, to the environmental impacts of an industrial system based on fossil fuels. If we would wish that our ‘bad ancestors’ had not left us such legacies, what grounds do we have for passing on a similarly negative inheritance to the future, whether in the form of the ecological damage we cause, the potential risks of new technologies or the thoughtless dumping of nuclear waste? After all, we wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of such an inheritance ourselves. The Baton ensures that we are mindful about the consequences of our actions, and is among our best guides for becoming good ancestors. We can also think about it in relation to positive actions, so we make sure to pass on the public health institutions or great works of art and literature left to us by previous generations.
While we cannot change the path dependency of the short term world, we can change the path dependency of our long term lives. We can be the ones who take advantage of the increased availability of resources. We can turn commuting time into a side project. We can conduct virtual meetings with colleagues from the comfort of our home office. We can use Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, and whoever else comes, to help us be long term versions of ourselves. But we have to start now. The longer we wait, the more entrenched the dependency becomes. Before you know it, you will be one of the many on the sidelines, wishing they’d played. Or worse, you will be one of the many lying in their last bed, wishing they’d lived. When you pursue your long term interests, you are being your authentic self. Becoming a long term person is nothing more than becoming who you are.

So now, we move on to the photo display by Alexander Baturo. The portrait tells us about our question at the very beginning of this session, about 'term limits'. Between 1960 and 2010, from Latin America to post-Soviet Eurasia, out of two hundred term-bounded presidents that have served their terms, more than a quarter have managed to extend their stay in office beyond constitutionally mandated periods in one way or another. Many ambitious presidents throughout the world strive to increase their power and control the executive, the legislative and judiciary branches of their nations, and to preside over enforcement agencies that make it possible to extend these leaders' remit into all corners of public and private life. Yet, if these leaders have to surrender all these powers and step down, as stipulated by presidential term limits—an institution that prescribes the maximum length of tenure that a president can serve in office—then dictators they are not, so term limits are not compatible with absolute power.
Indeed, as the eminent scholar of democracy Juan Linz underscored, one of the defining characteristics of democracy is that it is government pro tempore, and authoritarianism is the one that is 'forever'. During the 2011 Arab Spring in Egypt one of the key demands of pro-democracy protesters, eager to leave decades of one-man rule in the past, was to impose mandatory term limits on future presidents. Yet, in a never-ending cycle of history repeating itself, just as the long-standing rulers in the North Africa were departing from the scene, other national leaders—Hugo Chávez, Vladimir Putin, Daniel Ortega—were implementing personal designs in their own quests for political immortality.

Term limits have a long history, just as the numerous attempts to circumvent them do, and remain at the center of our understanding how many political regimes across the world function. The names of Napoleon III of France, Porfirio Díaz of Mexico, or Juan Perón of Argentina, who were elected for limited periods, became 'indispensable,' then overturned limitations on the duration of their mandates.
Many presidents attempt to rule by decree, diminish the power of parliaments or replace constitutional courts' judges with their own supporters, and they surely encounter virulent criticism and opposition. Yet, no other institutional changes provoke as much debate and opposition as meddling with term limits. Consider the failed attempt to prolong his stay in power by President Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007) of Nigeria. The president's bid was backed by supporters who wanted him to complete his economic reforms as well as, allegedly, by a group of businessmen with close links to the president who benefited from rent-seeking.
Monetary and personal motives to remain in office—the value of holding political office for individual presidents—depend on the income-generating capacity of that office, in contrast to potential income after leaving it, as well as on personal concerns over future immunity and status. The larger magnitude of spoils from the political office and the lower probability of retaining these spoils and immunity after exit from office increase the likelihood that a president will try to personalize his or her regime and extend tenure. The stakes of losing office for a president in a poor, corrupt country are much higher than for a president in an industrialized democracy.

In the next session, we'll see that Presidents who are able to extend their stay, usually have personal control over the president's own party, a larger number of effective legislative parties, a weaker legislative opposition, and judiciary that is not independent from governmental interference. Bi 'idhnillah."

While waiting for the next session, Sansevieria sang,

Kita bicara dalam bahasa cinta
[We speak in the language of love]
tanpa suara, tanpa sepatah kata
[without a sound, without a word]
Pelukan asmara mengungkapkan semua
[Amorous embrace says it all]
tanpa suara, tanpa kata-kata *)
[without a sound, without a word]
Citations & References:
- Michael Julius Motta Ph.D., How to be a Long Term Person in a Short Term World, 2017, Amazon-Kindle Edition
- Roman Krznaric, The Good Ancestor: How to Think Long Term in a Short-Term World, 2020, Pinguin Random House
*) "Bahasa Cinta" written by Oddie Agam