"A veterinarian asked his assistant, 'Why did the chicken cross the road?'His assistant replied, 'To get to the other side.'""The world is dynamic and ever-changing. Change is inevitable, but our ability to navigate it defines our future. We remain part of a dynamic, interconnected world—one where adaptation and progress go hand in hand. Our ability to adapt to change is crucial. Whether it’s economic shifts, geopolitical tensions, or environmental challenges, our resilience matters.We are all citizens of the world in addition to being citizens of our immediate society. We have opportunities to elect governments that make decisions involving war and peace, economic development, human rights, our welfare, and our relationships with other peoples. We do not want these matters, which are of increasing importance, to be outside our competence," Cananga went on while looking at a large clock at Abraj Al Bait."Our interconnectedness is getting stronger. The social and political behaviour of others is the social and political environment of each system. Our behaviour as one part of a society affects the behaviour of others. The values, expectations, sympathies and hostilities of people in one place are transmitted throughout the whole of societies, and world society. Movements of independence and social reform, affect behaviour in others. Furthermore, increased interdependence, which is the consequence of increased specialization, industrialization and trade, leads to change everywhere when there is change anywhere. Whatever our occupation or interests, each of us needs to be informed about our wider environment, how we affect it, and how we are affected by it. In particular, we need to have insights into changes that are likely to occur, such as population growth, technological change, social and political change and market changes, so that we can anticipate them, and plan our individual and collective lives accordingly.The press, television, scholars who write books, teachers who teach history, and people generally create the political climate in which formal decisions are taken, John W. Burton wrote. Each of us at some stage lives and works in communities and organizations through which we seek security, harmonious social relationships, freedoms of many kinds, and self-fulfilment generally. For this to be possible, we, as members, need to understand and to be able to influence the internal processes of our particular community or organization. But this by itself does not guarantee success. Every individual, every group—small or large—every organization or institution exists within a wider environment. It must be able to control this environment or be able to adjust to it and change in it. This interaction between a system and its environment is ignored all too often. Businesses sometimes fail, not necessarily because they are inefficient internally, but because there have been false predictions about changes in foreign markets, about technological developments, or about future political conditions. States find themselves involved in war, not necessarily because of an aggressive intent, but merely because they misjudged or were unaware of the longer-term responses of others to their policies. The press, television, scholars who write books, teachers who teach history and people generally create the political climate in which formal decisions are taken. But even when advisers and others have solved a problem, there is still a need for consensual support. Fluoridization of drinking water could be regarded as a solution to some dental problems, but there still must be agreement on a policy to implement this finding. Scholars could find that some defensive strategies were self-defeating, but there still would have to be a widespread consensus in favour of some radical change. Prejudice, fear and tradition are as powerful in influencing the way people think as are vested interests. Some vested interests can be eliminated by revolution and structural change; but prejudice, fear and tradition are removed only by educational processes that are slow to show results.Some changes occur in the structure of world society due to population growth, discovery, invention, political developments, improvements in communications, education and social organization. There is also the environment of scholarship. Knowledge and techniques in one area, such as economics, psychology and engineering, provide insights and methods that are relevant to other areas, such as education and international relations. Innovation and thinking in any one field promote innovation and thinking in many others, with the result that in all disciplines the rate of discovery is an ever-increasing one.It is important to adopt the widest possible perspective. We learn to find our way about a town by looking at a map of the whole, and finding where we are concerning the whole. We find our way in and out of complex buildings by having an image or a map of the whole, and our present position about it—or following notices provided by someone with such an image.Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) reveals that while tangible flows of goods have levelled off, other critical flows—such as knowledge, services, and data—are accelerating. Flows of data, for instance, have grown by over 40 per cent annually in the past decade. Globalization isn’t disappearing; it’s transforming. This changing world shows us, on one side, a rising global population (expected to reach 8 billion by 2030), and we face the challenge of providing a high quality of life while minimizing our impact on the planet. Globally, there are some issues we must address: poverty, climate change, food insecurity and refugee rights. The World Bank is updating the International Poverty Line from $1.90 to $2.15. Extreme poverty remains a challenge, and 62% of the global population lives on less than $10/day. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s sixth report highlights near-term, mid-term, and long-term risks of climate change. Mitigation is crucial to prevent major health issues, premature deaths, and risks to ecosystems and humans. The 2022 Global Report on Food Crises reveals that close to 193 million people experienced acute food insecurity in 2021, an 80% increase since 2016. Economic shocks and weather-related disasters contribute to this crisis. The war in Ukraine has sparked the fastest-growing refugee crisis since WWII, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). These challenges require urgent attention and collaborative efforts to create a better world.Misinformation and disinformation, climate-related threats, war and conflict, and economic uncertainty are some of the recent pressing issues in global politics. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 highlights misinformation and disinformation as the most severe short-term threat. With AI potentially amplifying false narratives, foreign and domestic actors may exploit these tactics to widen societal and political divides. In the longer term, climate-related risks dominate the top 10 global risks. The ever-increasing impacts of a changing climate pose significant challenges to our world order. Ongoing conflicts and polarized politics continue to destabilize the global order. For instance, the crisis in Ukraine faces a significant refugee crisis due to the war. A continuing cost-of-living crisis adds to global instability, affecting people across regions and creating economic Uncertainty. These challenges demand collaborative efforts and strategic solutions to create a more stable and sustainable world.Meanwhile, steady but slow growth, inflation challenges, structural frictions, and dimmer prospects for emerging markets (and China) are some of the recent pressing issues in global economics. The 2024 World Economic Outlook by the IMF forecasts global growth to continue at 3.2% during 2024 and 2025. While advanced economies are expected to accelerate slightly, emerging markets and developing economies face a modest slowdown. Declining growth prospects in China and other large emerging market economies may weigh on trading partners. Persistent structural frictions hinder capital and labor mobility to productive firms, impacting output per person growth in the medium term.Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. Advanced economies are returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market economies. A decrease in the general price level of goods and services refers to deflation. It is one of the most feared terms in economics. During deflation, the unemployment rate tends to rise. As prices decrease, producers often cut costs by laying off employees. Reduced demand for goods and services leads to production cutbacks, which further exacerbate unemployment. So, deflation can bring an increase in unemployment.Deflation is associated with an increase in interest rates. When prices fall, the real value of debt becomes higher. Consumers and businesses find it more challenging to repay existing debts, leading to financial strain. Initially, deflation can increase a consumer’s purchasing power because prices are lower. However, prolonged deflation can lead to deferred spending as people expect prices to continue falling. This demand reduction can further contribute to an economic slowdown. Companies face difficulties when they are unable to sell products due to deflation. Revenue decreases, leading to cost-cutting measures such as closing stores, plants, and warehouses, and laying off workers. Workers, in turn, reduce their spending, creating a cycle of less demand and more deflation. In extreme cases, deflation can even push an economy into a recession or a depression.On the contrary, a broad rise in the prices of goods and services across the economy over time refers to Inflation. Inflation, always and everywhere, is primarily caused by an increase in the supply of money and credit. Inflation is the increase in the supply of money and credit, says Henry Hazlitt. Inflation is indeed a topic of concern in economics. Inflation is a gradual loss of purchasing power, reflected in a broad rise in prices for goods and services over time. It erodes the purchasing power of both consumers and businesses. Essentially, your dollar (or any currency) won’t go as far today as it did yesterday. Example: let's say that in 1970, an average cup of coffee in your country cost 25 cents; by 2019, it had climbed to $1.59. So, for $5, you could buy about three cups of coffee in 2019, compared to 20 cups in 1970. Inflation affects our daily life. High inflation rates are reflected in bills—from groceries to utilities to mortgage payments. Executives and corporate leaders face the effects of inflation, balancing margins while paying more for raw materials.In a healthy economy, annual inflation around 2% stimulates spending and boosts demand and productivity during economic slowdowns. In this cas, inflation ai stimulating deman and has moderation positive effect. But when inflation surpasses wage growth, it signals a struggling economy. It's a warning sign.Hyperinflation is a rare but extreme form of inflation, characterized by rapid and out-of-control price increases in an economy. It can have severe consequences for individuals, businesses, and the overall economy. When a country’s central bank prints money without a corresponding increase in goods and services, it dilutes the value of each monetary unit. Essentially, too much money chases too few goods, leading to skyrocketing prices. Confidence is crucial for any currency’s stability. If people lose faith in their currency due to economic instability, political turmoil, or other factors, they may rush to exchange it for other assets (e.g., foreign currencies, gold, or real estate). This loss of confidence can exacerbate hyperinflation. Sometimes, governments finance their expenditures by printing money rather than borrowing or raising taxes. When deficit spending becomes excessive, it floods the economy with money, contributing to hyperinflation. Wars, revolutions, and political upheavals disrupt economic stability. In such situations, governments often resort to printing money to fund war efforts or maintain power, leading to hyperinflation.Inflation has ripple effects, posing threats to financial stability. It also correlates with increased financial crime rates. While moderate inflation can be beneficial, excessive or prolonged inflation can harm economies and individuals. Policymakers need to strike the right balance, to maintain the temperature of the economics machine so that it doesn't break because it's too hot, or freeze because it's too cold.On the other side, we have to face some resource constraints, declining resources, and also what economists call 'externalities', forcing us to adapt. We must find sustainable ways to thrive. Externalities (or sometimes, 'third-party effects' or 'spillover effects') arise whenever the value of a production function or a consumption function depends directly upon the activity of others. Externalities refer to costs or benefits incurred or received by a third party who has no control over how those costs or benefits were created. They can be either positive or negative. Negative externality occurs when one party imposes an indirect cost on another. For example, pollution caused by commuting to work or a chemical spill due to improperly stored waste. If one party receives an indirect benefit as a result of actions taken by another, it is a positive externality. To address negative externalities, governments may use taxation and regulation to curb their impact.There are significant externalities with practical implications. Global warming affects the entire planet, and damage to the ozone layer impacts climate stability and human health. he consumption of large cars, such as SUVs, produces several negative externalities. Larger cars wear down roads more, leading to increased maintenance costs for governments. The contribution of driving to global warming is directly proportional to the amount of fossil fuel a vehicle requires to travel a mile. SUV drivers use more gas, increasing fossil fuel emissions. Externalities play a crucial role in economics, affecting both individuals and society as a whole.Culture is dynamic as well. It evolves, adapts, and responds to shifts in society. Yet, it maintains a sense of coherence—a thread connecting past, present, and future. Progress in technology accelerates technological advancements, including AI, reshaping our world. These changes affect everything from climate action to political systems.The digital age has ushered in significant cultural shifts, transforming the way we perceive, create, and interact with culture. Now, we have an abundance of information at our fingertips. Online spaces, social media, and virtual experiences are seamlessly integrated into our daily lives. Web presence and social media platforms allow individuals to share their thoughts, experiences, and creations globally. The distinction between reality and virtuality has become less clear. People curate their digital personas, blurring the lines between who they are offline and who they present themselves to be online. Online identity is a prime example. Digital technologies empower individual expression. The exposure of personal information has become commonplace. People can tailor their experiences, preferences, and content consumption. The digital revolution has reversed the scarcity of information. The intellectualisation of our environment—cognification—is a trend. AI, algorithms, and smart systems enhance our lives. In the past, knowledge was limited and controlled. The way we produce and transmit culture has fundamentally changed, impacting everything from language evolution to social norms. So, organisations and societies must adapt to these shifts. Change management strategies should focus on cultural transformation beyond technology. Engaging leaders, promoting new values, encouraging dialogue, and measuring progress are essential steps. The digital age has revolutionized culture by blurring boundaries, democratizing information, and empowering individuals. As we navigate this dynamic landscape, understanding these shifts is crucial for both personal growth and societal progress.We are continuing our discussion on the topic of the Islamic Calendar, biidhnillah."Then Cananga rhymed,Si pedagang terpana, di pikiran nakalnya berkata[The merchant was stunned, in his naughty mind said]Kelak, bisa saja rakyat diekspor besar-besaran ke Malaysia,ke Brunei dan Singapura,[In the future, people could be exported on a large scale to Malaysia,to Brunei and Singapore,]Ke Hongkong, Taiwan dan Timur Tengah tentu saja[To Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Middle East of course]Maka, rumah-rumah jadi kosong, tanah-tanah jadi lapang[So, the houses became empty, the land became open]Lalu berdatanganlah orang-orang jangkung berkulit warna udang[Then came tall people with shrimp-colored skin]Berbondong-bondonglah orang-orang berkulit warna mentega[Butter-colored skinned people flocked]Hingga penuh sesak udara, oleh napas-napas busuk dari negeri tetangga[Until the air is filled with suffocation, by the foul breath from neighboring countries]Hingga #2030, kita bakal ternganga *)[Until #2030, we will be agape]
Citations & References:
- John W. Burton, World Society, 1972, Cambridge University Press
- Chris Farrell, Deflation: What Happens When Prices Fall, 2004, HarperCollins
- Henry Hazlitt, What You Should Know About Inflation, 1964, D. Van Nostrand Company
- Philip Haslam & Russel Lamberti, When Money Destroys Nations, 2014, Penguin Group
- Steven A. Y. Lin, Theory and Measurement of Economic Externalities, 1976, Academic Press
- Richard Cornes, The Theory of Externalities, Public Goods, and Club Goods, 1996, Cambridge University Press
*) "Ganti Presiden" written by Hasan Bisri BFC
