Bagong and Gareng, two villagers, found themselves in a luxurious hotel, deep in discussion about the Indonesian military. Taking advantage of the free meal, Gareng ordered a beef steak, while Bagong opted for a tongue steak. Then, Bagong remarked, "When a country is controlled by its police and military, it faces significant risks that can undermine democracy, human rights, and societal stability. Military and police control often leads to authoritarianism, where democratic institutions are weakened or dismantled. Leaders may use force to suppress political opposition and dissent, consolidating power in undemocratic ways. In democratic systems, civilian oversight ensures accountability. When police and military dominate governance, civilian control is diminished, eroding checks and balances.
Military and police forces may use violence, torture, or extrajudicial killings to maintain control. This can result in widespread human rights abuses. Basic freedoms such as speech, assembly, and press are often curtailed under militarized regimes to silence critics and prevent resistance.
Police and military personnel in power may operate without accountability for their actions. Corruption, abuse of power, and violations of rights often go unchecked. Militarized governments are prone to corruption as power becomes concentrated among a few individuals or groups.
Heavy-handed tactics by the police and military can provoke public unrest, protests, and rebellion. This often leads to violent confrontations between the government and its citizens. The militarization of governance can divide society into those who support the regime and those who oppose it, deepening societal fractures.
Military-led governments often prioritize defense spending over social and economic development, which can harm the economy. Political instability caused by militarized rule discourages foreign investment and economic growth.
Civil society organizations advocating for human rights and democracy are often suppressed under militarized regimes. Citizens may be discouraged from engaging in governance due to fear of retaliation or repression.
After the military coup in 2021, Myanmar has faced severe human rights violations, suppression of democratic movements, and violent crackdowns on protesters. The military's dominance has led to widespread instability, economic decline, and international condemnation.
Following the military's takeover in 2013, Egypt has experienced restrictions on freedom of expression, mass arrests of activists, and an erosion of democratic institutions.
Under Robert Mugabe's rule with strong military backing, Zimbabwe faced human rights abuses, economic mismanagement, and suppression of opposition voices.
When police and military forces dominate a country's governance, the risks include authoritarianism, human rights abuses, lack of accountability, civil unrest, economic instability, and suppression of civil society. Such control undermines democratic principles and often leads to long-term instability both domestically and internationally."
"How does the control of a country by its own police and military affect its citizens?" Gareng wanted to know.
Bagong replied, "The control of a country by its own police and military has profound effects on its citizens, impacting various aspects of their lives.
Citizens often experience restrictions on fundamental rights such as freedom of speech, assembly, and press. Dissent is frequently met with intimidation or violence, discouraging public expression of opinions. Media outlets may be censored or controlled by the state, limiting access to information and hindering public discourse.
The presence of military and police forces can create an atmosphere of fear. Citizens may feel unsafe expressing their views or participating in protests due to the threat of arrest or violence. Reports of torture, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary detentions become more common in environments where the military and police dominate governance, leading to widespread fear among the population.
When police and military personnel operate without oversight, citizens may suffer from abuses without recourse for justice. This lack of accountability can lead to a culture of corruption and lawlessness. Citizens may lose faith in governmental institutions that are supposed to protect their rights and interests, leading to disillusionment with the state.
Military control often prioritizes defence spending over social programs, negatively impacting economic development. Citizens may face higher unemployment rates and reduced access to essential services. Political instability can deter foreign investment, leading to economic decline that affects job opportunities and living standards for citizens.
The prospect of military control in a country can lead to negative reactions in the market and adversely affect the economy. The potential for military rule creates uncertainty about the political landscape. Investors typically prefer stable environments, and the fear of military intervention can lead to capital flight and reduced foreign investment.
Military control often signals potential instability, including civil unrest, human rights abuses, and a lack of democratic governance. Such instability can deter businesses from operating in or investing in the country.
When a military regime is perceived as authoritarian or repressive, it can erode investor confidence. Companies may fear that their investments will be at risk due to arbitrary government actions or changes in policy.
Military regimes may prioritize defence spending over social and economic development, leading to an imbalanced economy that does not adequately address public needs. This can result in slower economic growth and increased poverty.
Countries under military rule may face international sanctions or trade restrictions, further isolating them economically and negatively impacting market performance.
So, the prospect of military control can lead to negative market reactions due to increased uncertainty, perceived instability, loss of investor confidence, unbalanced economic policies, and potential international sanctions.
We will discuss about 'market' later, Insha Allah.
The militarization of governance can create divisions within society, pitting supporters of the regime against dissenters. This polarization can lead to social unrest and conflict. Activists and opposition groups are often targeted for repression, leading to a lack of representation for diverse voices within society. Citizens may live under constant surveillance by police and military forces, affecting their daily routines and sense of privacy. Militarized policing can disrupt community cohesion as trust erodes between citizens and law enforcement agencies that are supposed to protect them.
The control of a country by its police and military profoundly affects citizens by eroding civil liberties, increasing fear and insecurity, fostering a lack of accountability, causing economic instability, polarizing society, and disrupting daily life. These impacts contribute to a challenging environment for individuals seeking to exercise their rights and participate fully in their communities.
Myanmar has experienced prolonged periods of military rule since 1962, when General Ne Win seized power in a coup. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, has maintained significant control over the government, leading to human rights abuses and suppression of democracy. The most recent coup occurred in February 2021, when the military overthrew the democratically elected government.
From 1976 to 1983, Argentina was ruled by a military junta during what is known as the 'Dirty War.' The government engaged in widespread human rights violations, including forced disappearances of suspected political opponents. The junta's rule ended with a return to civilian governance after losing the Falklands War.
In Chile, General Augusto Pinochet led a military coup in 1973 that overthrew President Salvador Allende. Pinochet's regime was characterized by severe repression, human rights violations, and economic reforms that favoured neoliberal policies. The military ruled until 1990 when Chile transitioned back to democracy.
In Egypt, after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 during the Arab Spring, Egypt was briefly governed by the military. In 2013, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi led a coup against President Mohamed Morsi and established military control over the government, which has continued to this day with significant repression of dissent.
Greece experienced a military dictatorship from 1967 to 1974 known as the "Colonels' Regime." This period was marked by censorship, political repression, and human rights abuses until it ended with a return to democratic governance following public protests.
In October 2021, Sudan's military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, conducted a coup that dissolved the transitional government formed after the ousting of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The military took control amid rising tensions between civilian and military leaders.
Following the coup, there have been widespread protests against military rule, and security forces have responded with violence. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing calls for a return to civilian governance.
In January 2022, Burkina Faso's military staged a coup, overthrowing President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. The military cited the government's failure to effectively address rising Islamist violence and insecurity in the country as justification for their actions.
Following the coup, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was installed as the new leader. The situation in Burkina Faso remains tense as citizens demand improvements in security and governance.
In September 2021, Guinea's military seized power in a coup that ousted President Alpha Condé. The coup was led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who accused Condé of authoritarianism and mismanagement.
Following the coup, the military established a transitional government and promised to return to civilian rule. However, there are concerns about how long this transition will take and whether it will be genuine.
In April 2021, following the death of President Idriss Déby on the battlefield, a transitional military council led by his son Mahamat Idriss Déby took control of the country. The council announced it would rule for 18 months while organizing elections.
The military council's rule has faced criticism from opposition groups and civil society for lacking legitimacy and failing to engage with various political factions.
These recent examples illustrate how military control can emerge in various contexts, often justified by claims of restoring order or addressing national crises. However, such transitions frequently lead to instability and challenges in returning to democratic governance.
Some observers in Indonesia argue that the issue of the military and police occupying civilian positions is not as concerning as feared. They may argue that the experience and discipline of military and police personnel can bring stability and security to civilian governance. However, this view can be countered by stating that the market does not lie.
When there are concerns about the military and police taking over civilian roles, the market tends to react negatively due to the uncertainty created. Investors often shy away from risk, and fears of authoritarianism or human rights violations can lead to a decline in market confidence.
Economic data and market indicators, such as stock indices, currency exchange rates, and foreign investment flows, often reflect public perception of political stability. If the public feels that military or police control will disrupt democracy or civil liberties, the market will respond with a decrease in value.
While there may be arguments that military and police positions in civilian governance can provide short-term stability, their long-term impact on economic growth, human rights, and public trust can be detrimental. The market tends to factor in these long-term risks when making investment decisions.
While there are views that downplay concerns about the military and police in civilian positions, market realities show that investors are highly sensitive to these issues. The uncertainty created by military and police dominance can negatively impact the economy, proving that 'the market does not b*llsh*t'.
In the next episode, we will continue with the discussion of 'Market Behavior.' Bi'idhnillah."
Before continuing, Bagong sang Coldplay's Paradise again,
Life goes on, it gets so heavy
The wheel breaks the butterfly
Every tear, a waterfall
In the night, the stormy night, she'd close her eyes
