Monday, July 22, 2024

Seruni's Ramblings (25)

"In a land where the red line between politics and playtime is whimsically thin, our story unfolds with the newly elected public officer, Togog. Armed with a box of Legos and a Tamiya kit, he invited a gaggle of reporters to his old office for a farewell packing event.
As cameras clicked and journalists scribbled furiously, Togog proudly displayed his impressive collection of childhood relics. 'Behold,' he announced, holding up a meticulously constructed Lego castle, 'This is where my policy-building skills were first honed.'
The media, ever hungry for a human-interest piece, lapped it up. Headlines the next day ranged from 'Togog's Lego Legacy: A Foundation for the Future' to 'Tamiya and Tactics: Togog's Blueprint for Success."
Amid the spectacle, some observers couldn’t help but wonder if the newly public officer had perhaps misplaced a priority or two. 'Shouldn’t he be discussing the national budget instead of his favourite action figures, leaving Semar confused about fiddling with the dwindling budget?' mused a bemused citizen. 'I thought the only toys in politics were the ones used to distract us.'
Critics, ever vigilant, seized the opportunity. 'Is this what we’ve come to?' they cried. 'Togog who plays with toys? What’s next, governing with a game of Monopoly?' They argued that the line between statesmanship and playtime should be a tad less blurry.
Yet, Togog, undeterred, continued his playful parade. 'It's about transparency,' he declared, arranging his Lego minifigures in a neat row. 'If you can see my toys, you can trust my toys... I mean, my policies.'
Supporters rallied behind him, praising his relatable charm. 'Finally, a leader who’s just like us!' they cheered, perhaps missing the point that their taxes might be funding a playdate rather than a government.

In the end, the nation was left to ponder: had Togog skillfully placed his playful persona in the public eye, or had he simply misplaced the gravitas expected of his office? Only time would tell if his political strategy was built to last or destined to topple like an ill-fated Jenga tower.
And so, in the land of political Legos and Tamiya tactics, the newly elected public officer was building his career, as the public watched with a mix of amusement, scepticism, and a touch of bewildered questions. Lego ambassadors remain neutral, and Tamiya considering a political career.
Disclaimer: This satirical tale is a work of fiction. Any resemblance to actual living or Lego is purely coincidental."

“Resilience and adaptability are one of the key pillars of a nation’s strength. This includes crisis management, which involves the ability to respond to and effectively recover from crises such as natural disasters or economic downturns. Additionally, it encompasses the capacity to adapt to technological, economic, and social changes.
In times of adversity, a nation’s resilience and adaptability shape its destiny, much like the interplay of sunlight and rain on fertile soil. These qualities allow societies to weather storms, learn from setbacks, and emerge stronger," Seruni went on then looking at the portrait of Emiliano Martinez. He was voted The Best FIFA Men’s Goalkeeper 2022 after playing a pivotal role in Argentina’s 2022 FIFA World Cup victory. His exceptional performances earned him this prestigious honour.

"Japan's remarkable recovery after World War II is a testament to its economic resilience. The nation rebuilt its infrastructure, revitalized its industries, and transformed into one of the world's largest economies. Despite the collapse of its asset price bubble in the 1990s, which led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the 'Lost Decade,' Japan's strong financial institutions and government policies helped stabilize the economy and prevent a complete collapse.
Japan is a global leader in technology and innovation. Companies like Toyota, Sony, and Panasonic have continually adapted to changing market conditions and technological advancements, keeping Japan competitive in the global market. Japan's adaptable approach to its aging population includes promoting robotics and automation to address labor shortages and investing in healthcare technologies to support the elderly.

Japan is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons. Its resilient infrastructure, including earthquake-resistant buildings and advanced early warning systems, helps minimize the impact of such events. Strong social cohesion is evident in Japan's community support systems. For example, during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, local communities and volunteers played a critical role in recovery efforts.
While traditionally homogenous, Japan is gradually adapting to a more multicultural society by implementing policies to attract foreign workers and students, addressing labour shortages and enriching cultural diversity. Japan continually adapts its education system to prepare students for the future. This includes incorporating technology in classrooms and promoting STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education.

Japan's political institutions have remained stable, providing consistent governance and upholding the rule of law. This stability has been crucial during times of crisis, such as economic recessions and natural disasters. Japan's effective crisis management was evident during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. The government and various agencies coordinated efforts to manage the situation, though it also highlighted areas needing improvement.
Japan's government has shown adaptability in policy-making, such as implementing economic reforms to address stagnation and demographic challenges. The 'Abenomics' policies under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe aimed to revive the economy through monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. Japan continually updates its disaster preparedness and response strategies, learning from past experiences and integrating new technologies to enhance resilience.

Japan's infrastructure is designed to withstand environmental challenges, such as earthquake-resistant buildings and flood control systems, enhancing resilience to natural disasters. Japan has limited natural resources, making efficient resource management critical. The nation has developed resilient supply chains and invested in alternative energy sources.
Japan is committed to reducing its carbon footprint and promoting renewable energy. Initiatives like the Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program and investments in solar and wind energy demonstrate adaptability to environmental challenges. Japan invests in innovative environmental technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cells and electric vehicles, to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and mitigate climate change impacts.
Japan's ability to recover from severe disruptions, adapt to changing circumstances, and proactively address future challenges illustrates the importance of resilience and adaptability. These characteristics enable Japan to maintain stability, promote growth, and ensure the well-being of its citizens, serving as a strong example for other nations.

Despite the shortcomings that certainly exist, we can learn from Japan about the importance of the 'resilience and adaptability' of a nation. From economic stability and growth perspective, a resilient nation can withstand and recover from economic downturns, recessions, and financial crises. This involves having robust financial institutions, effective regulatory frameworks, and diversified economies. Resilience in the job market ensures that employment levels can bounce back after disruptions, maintaining the livelihood of citizens. An adaptable economy can quickly embrace technological advancements and innovation, staying competitive in the global market. This includes fostering a culture of continuous learning and upskilling the workforce. Adaptability enables a nation to respond to changing market conditions, consumer preferences, and global trade patterns, ensuring sustained economic growth.

From the lens of social cohesion and well-being, Resilient social systems ensure that healthcare, education, and social safety nets are robust enough to support citizens during crises, such as pandemics or natural disasters. Social resilience is reflected in strong, supportive communities that can come together to face challenges and support each other.
An adaptable society can embrace diversity and integrate different cultural, ethnic, and social groups, promoting social harmony and reducing conflicts. Adaptability in social policies allows nations to manage and leverage demographic changes, such as ageing populations or migration trends, for the benefit of all citizens.

From the optic of political stability and governance, resilient political institutions can maintain stability and continuity during crises, preventing governance breakdowns and ensuring the rule of law. Effective crisis management and disaster response capabilities are essential for maintaining public trust and order during emergencies.
An adaptable government can swiftly change policies and strategies in response to new information, emerging threats, and changing circumstances, ensuring effective governance. Adaptable political systems are open to citizen feedback and participation, fostering a responsive and inclusive governance model.

From the loupe of environmental sustainability, environmental resilience involves preparing for and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and storms, to protect lives and infrastructure. Sustainable management of natural resources ensures long-term availability and reduces vulnerability to resource depletion or environmental degradation.
Adaptable nations can adjust their policies and practices to address climate change, including reducing carbon emissions, implementing renewable energy sources, and promoting sustainable practices. Embracing new technologies and innovative practices can help nations address environmental challenges and transition to greener economies.
Resilience and adaptability are interconnected traits that contribute to a nation's ability to navigate and thrive amidst various challenges and changes. Resilience ensures that a nation can withstand and recover from shocks, while adaptability enables it to proactively adjust and evolve in response to new circumstances. Together, these characteristics foster a strong, stable, and sustainable nation capable of providing security, prosperity, and well-being for its citizens.

Markus Brunnermeier refers to resilience as the ability of a society, economy, or system to absorb shocks and recover quickly from disruptions while maintaining essential functions. Brunnermeier emphasizes that resilience is not just about bouncing back to the previous state but also about adapting and evolving to become more robust in the face of future challenges.
Brunnermeier mentions that the key aspects of resilience include the capacity to withstand and absorb the initial impact of disruptions, such as financial crises, pandemics, or natural disasters, without collapsing; the ability to restore functionality and normalcy rapidly after a shock, minimizing long-term negative effects on society and the economy; the process of learning from disruptions and implementing changes that enhance the system's ability to cope with future challenges. This includes innovation, policy reforms, and structural adjustments ensuring that critical services and functions, such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and governance, continue to operate effectively during and after disruptions.
Brunnermeier suggests a framework for building resilience that consists of diversification (avoiding over-reliance on a single source of resources or income, which helps mitigate the impact of specific shocks), redundancy (having backup systems and resources in place to ensure continuity in case primary systems fail), flexibility (Being able to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and implement necessary changes efficiently), networks and connectivity (leveraging strong networks and connections, both domestically and internationally, to share information, resources, and support during crises).

In our daily lives, resilience is perhaps the crucial ingredient to a happy, healthy life. More than anything else, it's what determines how high we rise above what threatens to wear us down, from battling an illness to bolstering a marriage to carrying on after a national crisis. Everyone needs resilience.
Karen Reivich and Andrew Shatté refer to resilience as the capacity to not only endure and recover from stress and adversity but also to grow and thrive as a result of those experiences. They emphasize that resilience involves a set of skills that can be learned and developed over time.
As psychologists, they provide a framework that focuses on developing seven key skills through practical exercises and strategies. The skills include emotion regulation (the ability to manage and respond to intense emotions healthily and productively), impulse control (the capacity to resist or delay an impulse, drive, or temptation to act), Optimism (maintaining a hopeful and positive outlook on life and future outcomes, even in the face of difficulties), causal analysis (The skill of accurately identifying the causes of problems and challenges, which helps in finding effective solutions), empathy (understanding and sharing the feelings of others, which can enhance social connections and support networks), self-efficacy (Believing in one’s ability to influence events and outcomes in life and to manage and overcome challenges), and reaching out (The willingness to take risks, seek out new opportunities, and ask for help when needed). They argue that resilience is not a fixed trait but rather a dynamic process that can be strengthened through intentional practice and effort.

Resilience is crucial for mental and emotional well-being. Resilient individuals are better equipped to handle stress and adversity. They can manage their emotional responses effectively, preventing stress from overwhelming them. By managing stress and challenging negative thoughts, resilience helps in reducing the risk of anxiety and depression. Resilient individuals are more likely to maintain a positive outlook and bounce back from setbacks. Resilience involves the ability to regulate emotions, allowing individuals to stay calm and composed in stressful situations. This helps prevent negative emotions from spiralling out of control and impacting overall well-being. Resilient people can express their emotions in a healthy way, which is essential for maintaining strong relationships and social support networks.
Resilient individuals tend to have an optimistic outlook on life. This positive thinking helps them see challenges as opportunities for growth rather than insurmountable obstacles. Optimism fuels motivation and perseverance, helping individuals stay focused on their goals even in the face of difficulties. Resilience involves strong problem-solving skills, allowing individuals to identify the root causes of their problems and develop effective solutions. Resilient people are proactive in addressing challenges, which helps them mitigate potential stressors before they become overwhelming.

Resilient individuals have a strong sense of self-efficacy, believing in their ability to influence events and outcomes. This confidence helps them take on challenges and pursue their goals with determination. Self-efficacy empowers individuals to take control of their lives, reducing feelings of helplessness and increasing their overall sense of well-being.
Resilient people tend to have strong social networks and are skilled at reaching out for support when needed. These connections provide emotional support and practical assistance during difficult times. Resilience fosters empathy and understanding, enhancing relationships and creating a sense of community and belonging.

Resilience involves being adaptable and flexible in the face of change. This adaptability helps individuals adjust to new circumstances without becoming overly stressed or anxious. Resilient individuals view challenges as opportunities for learning and personal growth. This mindset enables them to continually develop and improve their skills and coping mechanisms.
Reivich and Shatté highlight that adaptability is a critical component of resilience, enabling individuals to navigate change effectively and thrive despite challenges. By developing adaptability, individuals can enhance their ability to cope with life's uncertainties, maintain emotional well-being, and continue to grow and succeed in both personal and professional domains.
Reivich and Shatté refer to adaptability as the capacity to adjust to new circumstances, challenges, and demands flexibly and effectively. It involves being open to change, learning from experiences, and implementing new strategies to cope with evolving situations.

From a macro perspective, Brunnermeier refers to adaptability as a critical aspect of resilience, emphasizing the ability of individuals, organizations, and societies to adjust and evolve in response to changing circumstances, unexpected shocks, and new challenges.
This adaptability can be implemented in practice such as Economic adaptability (adjusting economic policies and business strategies in response to global market shifts, technological advancements, and financial crises. This might involve fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, regulatory changes, and corporate innovation), Environmental adaptability (implementing adaptive strategies to combat climate change, such as developing renewable energy sources, enhancing disaster preparedness, and promoting sustainable practices), and Social Adaptability (evolving social norms and policies to address demographic changes, cultural shifts, and public health challenges. This can include reforms in healthcare, education, and social welfare systems).

In 2021, The Economist mentioned that Myanmar could be Asia’s next failed state. This well-known magazine described how political competition would lead to disorder and impede development; only the army could ensure order and prosperity. So it is ironic that, since the army took complete control of the country again in a coup on February 1st, the only thing that has flourished is chaos. Daily protests are a rejection of the putsch, although these have shrunk since the army began shooting unarmed demonstrators. Soldiers are rampaging through rebellious districts, beating and killing at random, and reportedly charging grieving relatives 120,000 kyat ($85) to release the bodies. Citizens have burned down shops tied to the army. A general strike has paralysed businesses. Public services have largely ceased. In the borderlands, some of the 20 or so armed groups that have battled the government on and off for decades are taking advantage of the crisis to seize military outposts or caches of weapons. The army has bombed them, sending refugees into neighbouring countries.
In short, Myanmar is becoming a failed state. A vacuum is being created in a territory bigger than France that abuts Asia’s biggest powers, China and India. It will be filled by violence and suffering. Although Myanmar is not yet as lawless as Afghanistan, it is rapidly heading in that direction—a sobering warning of how hard it is to put a country back together.
But three years later, Myanmar still exists. Then, why can Myanmar survive until now? Myanmar's location between China and India offers it strategic importance, attracting investments and diplomatic interest from these major powers. Myanmar's wealth in natural resources such as natural gas, oil, minerals, and timber generates significant export revenue. Agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy, employing a large portion of the population and producing key exports like rice and pulses.
The Burmese people's strong cultural identity and resilience contribute to social cohesion and continuity. The military's control ensures a form of stability, despite being repressive.
The informal economy sustains livelihoods for many, continuing economic activities even when the formal sector is disrupted. Strong community networks provide mutual aid and support in times of crisis.

A nation may struggle to survive and adapt due to a variety of interrelated factors that hinder its resilience and ability to respond effectively to challenges. Poor governance, corruption, and lack of transparency can undermine the effectiveness of institutions. This can lead to mismanagement of resources and an inability to implement effective policies. Weak legal frameworks and ineffective enforcement can result in instability and hinder the nation's ability to address issues systematically.

Economies heavily dependent on a single industry or resource (e.g., oil) are vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets and may struggle if that industry suffers a downturn. In addition, the exploitation of fossil fuels such as coal has environmental impacts to ecosystems, water quality, and air pollution. In Indonesia, it’s a common belief in Kalimantan that coal reserves are inexhaustible, the reality is more nuanced. Indonesia, including Kalimantan, is indeed rich in coal resources. In 2020, East Kalimantan alone had approximately 10.95 billion metric tons of surface coal reserves, contributing to 39% of Indonesia’s total surface coal resources. However, it’s essential to recognize that coal is a finite resource. Globally, coal reserves are estimated to last around 112 years at current production rates, assuming no new reserves are found. So while Kalimantan’s coal deposits are substantial, they are not limitless.
Canada, Australia, and Norway are wealthy and have prominent fossil fuel reserves. However, they also face scrutiny for their planned expansion in oil and gas production. Balancing economic interests with environmental responsibility remains a challenge.

High levels of national debt and fiscal mismanagement can limit a government's ability to invest in infrastructure, social services, and crisis response measures. Greece, still recovering from its financial crisis in the early 2010s, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 194.5%. Although there have been efforts to improve fiscal discipline, the legacy of high debt continues to impact its economy. Sudan has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 200.4%, exacerbated by years of economic mismanagement and political turmoil. This has resulted in a dire economic situation, with limited resources to address the nation's fiscal challenges. Zambia's economic recovery is threatened by its high levels of debt, particularly to foreign creditors. The nation has struggled with fiscal mismanagement, leading to difficulties in servicing its debt and maintaining essential services​. Lebanon is facing a severe economic crisis, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 150.6%. The country has been plagued by fiscal mismanagement, political instability, and a collapse in the value of its currency​.
Indonesia's current economic situation presents several challenges related to national debt and fiscal management. The country's public debt has been rising, reaching approximately USD 423 billion in 2024, which represents about 40% of its GDP. This increase is partly due to the need for infrastructure investments and social spending to support economic growth and social welfare initiatives​. While Indonesia is taking steps to address its fiscal challenges, ongoing issues related to governance and the need for continued economic reforms highlight the importance of effective debt management and fiscal policies to ensure long-term economic stability. Issues such as bureaucratic inefficiencies, corruption, and the need for better regulatory frameworks continue to hinder optimal fiscal management.
These examples illustrate the challenges faced by nations with high debt levels and poor fiscal management, often resulting in economic instability and hardship for their populations.

Large disparities in wealth and income can lead to social unrest and reduce overall social cohesion. Marginalized groups may lack access to resources and opportunities, exacerbating inequalities. Inadequate social safety nets and support systems can leave vulnerable populations without necessary assistance during crises.
Income inequality in the U.S. has been growing since the 1980s, exacerbated by factors such as stagnant wages for the middle and lower classes compared to rising incomes for the wealthiest. This disparity contributes to reduced economic mobility and opportunity for many Americans​. The transition from communism to a market economy in Russia resulted in high levels of public corruption and a significant concentration of wealth among oligarchs and government officials. International sanctions and volatile commodity prices have further strained economic growth. The wealth gap in India has been widening, with the richest 1% owning a substantial share of the country's total wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these inequalities, impacting low-income populations more severely​. Brazil continues to struggle with high levels of income inequality, despite being one of the largest economies in Latin America. The disparity is evident in the differences between urban and rural areas, as well as among various socio-economic groups. South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries globally, with deep-rooted disparities stemming from its apartheid history. The wealth gap is evident across racial lines, with the majority of wealth concentrated in the hands of a small, predominantly white elite​.
Indonesia faces significant challenges related to income inequality, which threatens its social, economic, and political stability. Recent data highlights the widening gap between the wealthy and the poorer segments of society. In urban areas, the increase in the Gini ratio, a measure of income inequality, has been driven by higher spending among the richest 20% of the population, while spending among the middle and lower-income groups has declined. This disparity has led to a situation where the richest 20% contribute nearly half of the total expenditure, exacerbating inequality in urban regions. Additionally, the World Bank has pointed out that the richest 10% of Indonesians consume as much as the poorest 54%, indicating a steep rise in inequality over the past decades. This growing divide is partly due to the large informal sector, where wages are significantly lower than in the formal sector. Furthermore, a substantial portion of the workforce has only completed primary education, limiting their ability to secure higher-paying jobs.

Poor infrastructure (e.g., inadequate transportation, healthcare, and communication systems) can impede a nation's ability to respond to and recover from disasters and emergencies. Failure to plan and prepare for potential risks (such as natural disasters, pandemics, or economic crises) can leave nations ill-equipped to handle such events effectively.
Political instability, civil unrest, and armed conflict can disrupt governance and economic activities, making it difficult for a nation to adapt and recover. Extreme political polarization can hinder effective policymaking and create gridlock, preventing the implementation of necessary reforms and adaptations.

Low levels of education and skill development can limit a nation’s ability to innovate and adapt to technological changes and economic shifts. Nations that lag in technological advancement may struggle to compete globally and address modern challenges effectively. Deep-seated cultural norms or resistance to change can hinder the adoption of necessary reforms and adaptations. Societal reluctance to embrace new technologies or policies can limit progress.
Nations heavily dependent on global trade or foreign aid may find themselves vulnerable to international market fluctuations or geopolitical tensions. Conversely, being isolated from global economic and political systems can limit access to support, resources, and information needed for adaptation.
Nations that fail to address climate change may face severe environmental impacts, such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and resource shortages, which can overwhelm their adaptive capacities. Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources can lead to long-term environmental damage and reduce the availability of essential resources for future generations.

The inability of a country to be resilient and adaptable can lead to a cascade of negative outcomes affecting every aspect of society, from economic stability and public health to social cohesion and political stability. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive and proactive measures to build resilience and enhance adaptability.
A brief principle of resilience and adaptability that we need to remember is Kelly Clarkson's song lyrics, derived from the 19th-century German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche's famous aphorism, 'What doesn't kill you, makes a fighter. Footsteps even lighter. Doesn't mean I'm over 'cause you're gone.'

We have discussed the significance, role, and impact of ‘Resilience and Adaptability’ in a nation. Next, we will talk about the ‘Legal and Regulatory Framework’ as one of the key characteristics of a resilient nation. Biidhnillah."
Before proceeding further, Seruni recited a verse,

Like bamboo, we bend in the face of storms,
Not shattered, but growing stronger each day.
Resilient and adaptive, like a flowing river,
Our nation persists, never ceasing to thrive.
Citations & References:
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, The Resilient Society, 2021, Endeavor Literary Press
- The Economist, The Lessons of Fukushima, March 4th, 2021
- The Economist, Myanmar Could be Asia’s Next Failed State, April 15th, 2021
- Karen Reivich & Andrew Shatté, The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Finding Your Inner Strength and Overcoming Life's Hurdles, 2003, Harmony