The idea that the United States no longer dominates the world as it once did—an idea echoed by Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong—is supported by several developments in global affairs. While the U.S. remains a powerful and influential country, its unchallenged supremacy, particularly in the post-Cold War era, is gradually being eroded by the rise of other nations and shifts in international dynamics.
One of the most significant factors behind this change is the rise of China. Economically, China has grown at an extraordinary pace over the past few decades, and by some measures, such as purchasing power parity, it has surpassed the United States in terms of overall economic output. Furthermore, China has become increasingly assertive on the global stage, pursuing ambitious initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its military capabilities, and seeking greater influence in international institutions. These moves signal a clear intent to reshape the global order in ways that reduce U.S. dominance.
In addition to the rise of China, internal divisions within the United States have also contributed to a perceived decline in its global leadership. Increasing political polarization, especially visible in events such as the January 6th Capitol riot, has raised questions about the stability of American democracy. Moreover, shifts in foreign policy between administrations—such as the dramatic changes from Obama to Trump to Biden—have made some allies uncertain about America's long-term commitments, further weakening its leadership position.
The U.S. has also experienced setbacks in its foreign interventions. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, after nearly two decades of conflict, was widely viewed as a failure to achieve long-term strategic goals. Similarly, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to instability in the region and contributed to the emergence of extremist groups like ISIS, diminishing the credibility of U.S. military interventions.
Another aspect that supports the claim of waning U.S. dominance is the growing discontent among countries in the Global South. Many of these nations have criticised the current international system—largely shaped by the U.S. and its allies—as unfair or overly Western-centric. In response, new coalitions such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have emerged, aiming to provide alternative models of cooperation and financial institutions, thus challenging the U.S.-led global order.
Even in the realm of technology, where the U.S. has long held an advantage through giants like Google, Apple, and Microsoft, there are signs of increasing competition. Chinese tech companies like Huawei, TikTok, and Alibaba have made significant global inroads, demonstrating that technological innovation is no longer the exclusive domain of Silicon Valley.
That said, the United States remains an incredibly powerful country. Its military capabilities are unmatched, the U.S. dollar continues to serve as the world’s primary reserve currency, and American culture—through movies, music, and media—still exerts a profound influence around the globe. Additionally, U.S. universities and research institutions remain world leaders in science and innovation.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore has articulated several reasons for his assessment that the United States no longer maintains the same level of global dominance it once did. His observations stem from shifts in U.S. foreign policy, internal political dynamics, and the evolving international landscape.
One of the primary factors he highlights is the United States' retreat from its traditional role in upholding the global order. PM Lee notes that the U.S. has become more inward-looking, adopting a transactional approach to international relations. This shift is evident in actions such as the imposition of tariffs as a preferred policy tool and the withdrawal from multilateral commitments like the World Health Organisation and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Such moves signal a departure from the U.S.'s previous stance of underwriting global stability and predictability.
Additionally, PM Lee points to internal challenges within the United States, including political divisions and a narrowing definition of national interests. These domestic issues have led to a foreign policy that is less engaged with global affairs, further diminishing the U.S.'s influence on the world stage.
CNA
Furthermore, PM Lee observes that the U.S.'s failure to ratify significant trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), undermines its credibility and leadership in Asia. In contrast, China has been actively engaging with other nations, offering attractive incentives and expanding its influence. This dynamic suggests a shift in the balance of power, with the U.S. ceding ground to emerging powers in critical regions.
In his speeches, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has expressed concerns about the "double standards" observed in international relations, particularly in the context of the United States' policies. He highlights how the U.S. often applies different standards to itself and other countries, which can undermine its credibility and the effectiveness of international agreements. For instance, the U.S. has sometimes imposed sanctions on other nations for actions it itself has undertaken or has been involved in, raising questions about fairness and consistency in its foreign policy. Additionally, PM Lee notes that the U.S. has occasionally withdrawn from multilateral agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Agreement on climate change, which were initially championed by the U.S., leading to perceptions of inconsistency and unreliability among its allies and partners. These actions contribute to a sense of double standards, where the U.S. expects compliance from others while not always adhering to the same principles itself. PM Lee's observations underscore the importance of maintaining consistent and fair policies in international relations to uphold trust and cooperation among nations.
Although the United States no longer holds uncontested dominance over the world, it remains highly influential and dominant in several key areas. Its military power is unmatched, with the most technologically advanced armed forces and the largest defence budget in the world. This allows the U.S. to project power globally, maintain a vast network of military bases, and influence security dynamics in nearly every region.
Economically, the U.S. continues to play a central role in the global financial system. The U.S. dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, used in the majority of international transactions and held by central banks across the globe. American financial institutions and stock markets also continue to be among the largest and most influential in the world.
In the field of technology and innovation, the U.S. still leads with companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon setting global standards in digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing. American universities and research institutions are also among the best globally, attracting top talent and producing groundbreaking research.
Culturally, the United States maintains significant soft power through its entertainment industry. Hollywood films, American music, fashion, and lifestyle trends have a global reach, shaping tastes, opinions, and cultural norms in many countries.
Therefore, while the U.S. may now be sharing the global stage with rising powers such as China, it still holds a dominant position in military strength, financial influence, technological innovation, and cultural impact. Its power is more contested, but far from diminished.
Is China capable of surpassing the United States?
China’s rise as a global power has been remarkable in recent decades, but it is more complex to determine whether it can truly surpass or challenge the U.S. in all domains.
In terms of economic power, China is certainly a formidable competitor. It has become the world's second-largest economy and has rapidly increased its global influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's manufacturing sector, technological advancements, and massive consumer market make it a critical player in global trade and finance. The Chinese government’s strategic investments in industries like artificial intelligence, 5G technology, and green energy demonstrate its ambitions to lead in future technologies. China's focus on innovation, especially in high-tech fields, is narrowing the technological gap with the U.S.
However, in several important areas, the United States maintains a significant edge. For example, the U.S. continues to dominate the high-tech sector, particularly in software, digital services, and cutting-edge research. Silicon Valley remains the epicenter of global innovation, and American companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google continue to set global standards in technology. Moreover, the United States has a much more established network of alliances through organizations like NATO, while China’s global alliances are less entrenched and rely more on economic leverage rather than military or strategic partnerships.
Militarily, the U.S. still holds a clear advantage. Its defence budget is the largest in the world, and its military is technologically superior with a global presence. While China’s military has rapidly modernised and is now the largest standing army, it does not yet possess the same global reach or technological capabilities as the U.S. The U.S. also has extensive military alliances, such as with Japan, South Korea, and NATO, further bolstering its global influence.
On the cultural front, the U.S. also holds an unparalleled position. Through its global media, entertainment industry, universities, and soft power, the U.S. continues to shape global culture and values. While China’s cultural influence is growing, especially in Asia, it does not have the same universal appeal or reach as American culture.
In terms of soft power, the U.S. leads in attracting global talent, its educational institutions remain top-tier, and its entertainment industry—especially Hollywood—has a vast global audience. In contrast, while China is attempting to increase its soft power through initiatives like the Confucius Institutes, it faces significant challenges, including resistance in some parts of the world due to its political system and human rights concerns.
China’s internal challenges play a significant role in limiting its ability to become a fully dominant power on the global stage. Despite its rapid economic rise, China faces several issues that constrain its influence, both domestically and internationally.
One of the major internal challenges is its political system, which is based on one-party rule by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While this system has provided stability and allowed for rapid economic growth, it also limits political freedoms and suppresses dissent. The lack of political freedoms and human rights concerns is are source of criticism both within China and from the international community. These issues can lead to domestic unrest, and they affect China's global image, especially in democratic nations that prioritise individual freedoms and human rights.
Additionally, the Chinese economy, while powerful, is facing structural challenges. Despite being the world’s second-largest economy, it remains heavily reliant on state-owned enterprises and is still in the process of transitioning from a manufacturing-driven model to a consumption-based economy. The ongoing debt crisis, particularly within local governments and real estate sectors, poses a significant risk to long-term economic stability. Furthermore, China’s ageing population is another growing concern, which could lead to a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on its pension system in the coming decades.
China also struggles with environmental issues. Rapid industrialisation has led to severe air pollution, water shortages, and other environmental degradation. While the government is taking steps to address these issues through green energy initiatives and environmental regulations, it is still grappling with the balance between economic growth and sustainable development. These environmental problems not only harm the quality of life for Chinese citizens but also create challenges for the government’s long-term planning and global leadership aspirations.
Corruption in China is a significant challenge that has been deeply embedded in the political, economic, and social fabric of the country. It has existed for centuries, but in recent decades, it has become a prominent issue that the government has acknowledged and tried to address through a series of high-profile anti-corruption campaigns. However, despite these efforts, corruption remains a major problem in both the public and private sectors, and it can take several forms.
One of the most common types of corruption in China is bribery. This can occur between government officials and business leaders or between officials in various levels of government. Bribes may be offered to secure contracts, bypass regulations, or gain favourable treatment. Another type is embezzlement, where government officials or employees of state-owned enterprises (SOES) misuse public funds for personal gain. Nepotism and cronyism are also widespread, with family members, friends, or political allies being given lucrative government contracts or business opportunities without the necessary qualifications.
Corruption within China’s state-owned enterprises (SOES) is particularly notable. These enterprises are often intertwined with the government, and it is common for employees to engage in corrupt practices to maximise personal wealth while maintaining loyalty to the Party. Local officials, especially those in regions with less oversight, have also been known to engage in corrupt practices such as colluding with local businesses for mutual benefit. The opacity of China’s political system and lack of independent oversight contribute to the perpetuation of such corrupt practices.
The Chinese government has taken strong actions against corruption, especially under President Xi Jinping, who launched an anti-corruption campaign in 2012. The campaign has led to the investigation and punishment of thousands of officials at various levels, from local leaders to high-ranking members of the Communist Party. Despite these efforts, critics argue that the anti-corruption campaign is selective and often used as a tool to target political rivals within the Party, rather than being a genuine attempt to eradicate corruption across the board.
In terms of the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI), China ranks 66th out of 180 countries as of the 2024 report, with a score of 42 out of 100. This reflects a moderate level of perceived corruption, with serious concerns about government accountability, the independence of the judiciary, and the overall transparency of the political and business environments.
When comparing China’s corruption levels with the United States, it is clear that the U.S. generally performs better in terms of perceived corruption. According to the same CPI report, the U.S. ranks 25th, with a score of 67 out of 100. While the U.S. does experience corruption, particularly in lobbying, political donations, and corporate influence over public policy, it has more robust legal systems and checks and balances to address corruption. However, there are still significant concerns about the influence of money in politics, with wealthy donors and corporations having substantial sway over political decisions, particularly through lobbying and campaign finance practices.
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What about corruption in Indonesia?
According to the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Indonesia has a lower score compared to China, reflecting a higher perceived level of corruption in Indonesia. In the 2024 CPI report, Indonesia ranks 102nd out of 180 countries with a score of 39 out of 100, while China ranks 66th with a score of 42 out of 100.
Although Indonesia's score is slightly lower than China's, both countries still show relatively high levels of perceived corruption. A score below 50 indicates that corruption remains a significant issue in both countries, and the public perception of government integrity is relatively low.
In general, Indonesia faces significant challenges with corruption, despite efforts to improve the situation through institutions such as the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). However, many sectors of government, both at the central and regional levels, remain vulnerable to corrupt practices. Inconsistent law enforcement and political influence in policymaking often exacerbate this problem.
Corruption in Indonesia takes many forms, affecting both the public and private sectors, and is deeply embedded in various aspects of the political and economic systems. Similar to China, one of the most prevalent types of corruption is bribery, where private individuals or businesses offer money or gifts to public officials to gain an advantage, such as securing government contracts or avoiding legal penalties. This form of corruption is particularly common in sectors like construction, licensing, and local governance.
Another significant type of corruption in Indonesia is embezzlement, which occurs when public officials or employees of state-owned enterprises misuse public funds or assets for personal gain. This type of corruption often takes place in the management of public budgets or in the misuse of aid funds that should be used for public welfare but are diverted for private or group interests.
Nepotism and cronyism are also widespread, where positions of power or government contracts are awarded to family members, friends, or political allies without regard to their qualifications. These practices undermine the quality of governance and economic growth, as individuals without the necessary expertise or experience receive opportunities based solely on personal connections rather than merit.
Abuse of power is another common form of corruption in Indonesia. This occurs when public officials misuse their authority for personal gain or to benefit specific groups, often at the expense of the public interest. It may involve making decisions that lack transparency or using one’s position to acquire material benefits.
Collusion is also a serious issue, where two or more parties, either government officials or private sector entities, work together illegally to manipulate systems or processes for personal benefit. This is particularly common in bidding or procurement processes, where companies may conspire with officials to win contracts through fraudulent means.
Facilitation payments, which are smaller bribes given to speed up or ease the provision of public services, also constitute a form of corruption. While these payments may seem minor compared to larger bribes, they contribute to the broader culture of corruption in bureaucratic systems.
Extortion occurs when officials or individuals use their power to force others into giving money or goods in exchange for special treatment or to avoid negative consequences. This form of corruption is often seen at lower levels of government or within businesses that depend on permits or government control.
Back to China's internal problem. There are significant social issues in China, including rising income inequality between rural and urban areas. Despite significant progress in poverty reduction, the wealth gap continues to widen, leading to social unrest and dissatisfaction among the poorer segments of the population. This inequality also limits domestic consumption, which is vital for sustaining economic growth.
China's geopolitical ambitions, particularly in areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea, create tensions with neighbouring countries and the global community. While China’s military power has grown, these territorial disputes contribute to regional instability, which may hinder its ability to establish long-term dominance globally. The growing tensions with the United States, particularly in trade and technology, further complicate China’s path to becoming a dominant global leader.
In conclusion, while China has made incredible strides economically and militarily, its internal challenges—ranging from political and social issues to economic and environmental problems—continue to limit its ability to project global dominance. These internal struggles, coupled with growing international scrutiny, pose significant obstacles to China’s ambitions on the world stage.
Something is interesting in Singapore PM Lee’s speech. The Prime Minister's speech highlighted the shifting dynamics of global power and influence, reflecting a world where the dominance of the United States is increasingly being challenged. While the U.S. still retains significant power, particularly in military, economic, and cultural spheres, the rise of other global players, especially China, has reshaped the international order. PM Lee emphasised the importance of recognising the complexities of global power relations, where no single nation can solely dictate the future. He pointed out that while the U.S. remains influential, its relative dominance is no longer as absolute as it once was. The increasing interconnectedness of the world, along with the rising assertiveness of countries like China and regional shifts, calls for a more nuanced approach to international relations. Furthermore, the speech underscored the growing importance of multilateralism, cooperation, and diplomacy in navigating this new global landscape.
Ultimately, while China is certainly a rising power with tremendous economic and military potential, it faces significant challenges in matching the United States across all dimensions. The U.S. has a more deeply rooted global influence, particularly in terms of its technological leadership, military alliances, and cultural impact. China’s rise will likely continue to challenge U.S. dominance, but overtaking it across all sectors is a long-term and uncertain prospect.
To conclude, immerse yourself in the poetic beauty of Bread’s classic, 'Aubrey,' and let its evocative lyrics speak to your soul,
But where was June?
No, it never came around.
If it did, it never made a sound.
Maybe I was absent or was listening too fast,
Catching all the words, but then the meaning going past.
