[Part 3]In a small, storm-battered coastal village, the villagers used to elect their leader based on who had the loudest voice during festivals. Charisma, humour, and catchy slogans won hearts, while real skills were overlooked. For years, this seemed to work—until the sea rose higher than ever before, storms came more often, and the fishing economy collapsed under pressure from distant global markets and unpredictable weather.When crisis finally hit, the villagers turned not to the entertainers or the loudest shouters, but to an old, quiet fisherman who had long warned of the changing tides. He knew the sea, studied the weather, and understood the patterns. While others laughed at his caution, he built storm-resistant boats and trained the young in long-forgotten survival techniques.Now, as the winds howl louder and the world grows more uncertain, the village stands not because of charm or spectacle, but because someone had the foresight to lead with humility, knowledge, and preparation.This anecdote reminds us that in times of global turbulence—economic instability, climate crises, and political fragmentation—we need leaders not of noise, but of wisdom. Leadership today demands not just popularity, but the courage to make hard decisions before the storm hits.The stability of a nation is measured internationally through a combination of economic, political, social, and security indicators, assessed by global institutions and research organisations. No single metric can fully capture a country's stability, but several well-established indexes provide comprehensive snapshots.
One of the most widely referenced tools is the Fragile States Index (FSI), published annually by the Fund for Peace. It evaluates countries based on indicators such as political legitimacy, economic inequality, state capacity, public services, external intervention, and social cohesion. A high score signals vulnerability to crisis, while a lower score reflects resilience and balance.
The following are the top five most fragile countries in the 2024 Fragile States Index as ranked by the Fund for Peace.Somalia holds the unfortunate position of being the most fragile state in the 2024 Fragile States Index, primarily due to its decades-long civil war, weak central institutions, and the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab insurgency. The government has not regained control over large swaths of territory, leaving public services and economic development in shambles.Yemen follows as the second most fragile country, having been torn apart by a brutal civil war since 2011, compounded by regional power rivalry among Saudi Arabia and Iran. The conflict has triggered a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, widespread hunger, and almost total collapse of state infrastructure.South Sudan ranks third, a consequence of recurring political violence and ethnic conflict despite its independence only a decade ago. Rival factions have vied for power, undermining governance and forcing millions into displacement and food insecurity.The Democratic Republic of the Congo appears as the fourth most fragile state, due to decades of armed conflict, poor governance, and a government that struggles to extend its authority beyond the capital. Despite enormous natural wealth, eastern provinces remain volatile, rife with militia activity that sabotages stability.In fifth place is Syria, which remains in deep crisis after more than a decade of civil war. Massive infrastructure destruction, population displacement, and fragmented governance make reconstruction difficult and perpetuate a fragile and precarious situation .Collectively, these countries illustrate how prolonged conflict, weak institutions, humanitarian collapse, and external interventions create entrenched fragility, trapping communities in cycles of violence, poverty, and displacement.Indonesia’s most recent score in the Fragile States Index, as compiled by the Fund for Peace, stands at 63.7 out of 120 in 2024, marking a slight improvement from 65.6 in 2023. This places Indonesia just below the global average of around 64.6, suggesting that while the country is not in the most critical "alert" zone, it remains in the “warning” category.The improvement in Indonesia’s score is largely attributable to several positive developments: modest reductions in economic decline, better delivery of public services, and a more stable political environment. However, challenges persist—specifically around elite factionalisation, demographic pressures, and human rights compliance, which still score relatively high in vulnerability.The Fund for Peace calculates this index using 12 indicators, including factors such as security apparatus, economic imbalance, brain drain, rule of law, and external intervention. While Indonesia has made strides in areas like governance and economic recovery, the complexity and scale of its archipelago present ongoing hurdles. The country's position reflects both its resilience and the need for sustained efforts to strengthen institutions and social cohesion, particularly amid growing global uncertainties.In 2024, Indonesia scored 5.4 on the Human Flight and Brain Drain Index, where scores range from 0 (low) to 10 (high), and the global average is around 4.73. Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia ranks fourth highest, following Laos (6.3), Myanmar (6.0), and Cambodia (5.7), while significantly outpacing neighbours such as Thailand (3.4), Malaysia (4.2), and Singapore (1.0).This elevated score indicates that Indonesia continues to experience significant skilled-worker emigration—whether motivated by economic opportunity, career advancement, or political stability. Despite government efforts to stem the flow, including possible dual-citizenship proposals, the pull of higher salaries and better living conditions abroad remains strong.Comparatively, countries like Singapore—with its top-tier institutions and high income levels—register very low brain drain, while nations in transition such as Malaysia and Thailand sit in the middle range. Indonesia’s position suggests a concerning talent deficit—one that impacts sectors like education, healthcare, and technology. Globally, Indonesia’s score places it above the world average, but there is significant room for improvement if it aims to reverse the brain drain trend and retain top talent.The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) also track political stability, government effectiveness, and rule of law.
According to the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) by the World Bank, the top-performing countries across governance dimensions—such as voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption—consistently include Denmark, Finland, Norway, New Zealand, and Switzerland. These nations regularly achieve scores near the +2.0 mark on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5, signalling exceptionally strong governance systems with high respect for democratic participation, judicial independence, transparent regulation, and minimal corruption.Their positions mean they not only legislate well but also enforce those laws effectively, ensuring public services work efficiently, regulations are clear and fair, and the public can hold leaders accountable. These governance conditions create predictability, trust, and resilience in their societies—factors essential for sustained development, economic prosperity, and social well-being.In contrast, Indonesia ranks in the mid-range globally, with a mixed governance performance that reflects commendable strengths and persistent challenges. On one hand, it tends to score higher on voice and accountability, showing relatively robust civic freedoms and public participation—among the strongest in ASEAN. Government effectiveness is moderate, reflecting improving public services but still hampered by bureaucracy. However, it lags on control of corruption and rule of law, where enforcement remains inconsistent and graft continues to undermine public trust.Overall, Indonesia's WGI profile suggests a nation making progress—benefiting from a democratic environment and expanding institutions—but still in need of deeper reform to reach the stable, well-governed status enjoyed by the top-tier countries.International credit rating agencies like Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch assess economic stability through fiscal health, inflation control, investment climate, and debt sustainability. Meanwhile, security-focused institutions monitor threats like terrorism, organised crime, and internal conflict to gauge how safe and governable a country truly is.
When examining global standings in sovereign debt, inflation, and investment climate, several countries stand out due to their unique economic positions. Japan carries the world’s highest government debt-to-GDP ratio, estimated at approximately 234–252%, stemming from decades of public spending on social welfare and post-bubble economic stimulus . Sudan has recently overtaken Japan with debt levels near 252%, driven largely by prolonged conflict and weak fiscal structures . Singapore also features prominently, with a debt-to-GDP ratio around 175%, though its borrowing is strategic—used to develop financial markets rather than cover deficits . Italy follows closely with about 137%, reflecting chronic fiscal imbalance and political instability . The United States rounds out the top five, carrying debt around 120–123% of GDP, fuelled by persistent deficits, pandemic-era spending, and military commitments .Argentina stands as the global leader in inflation, exceeding 200% annually in 2023–2024, due to currency collapse and fiscal mismanagement. Zimbabwe has also experienced hyperinflation historically, though recent data varies. Other countries suffering extreme inflation include Venezuela, but among reported nations, Argentina's crisis remains by far the most acute.According to recent reports, China, Brazil, and South Korea have been attracting significant investor interest in 2025, as emerging markets outperform developed ones, partly due to a weakening U.S. dollar and stronger local interest rates. Within the G7, Germany, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, and Singapore continue to enjoy solid investment climates, praised for clear regulations and political stability. Notably, Singapore stands out as an investment hub due to its open economy, minimal corruption, and stable governance.Indonesia stands out for having public debt of around 39 per cent of GDP, which remains comfortably below the legal ceiling of 60 per cent. This prudent fiscal policy has earned it and retained an investment-grade sovereign credit rating, reflecting confidence in the government's ability to manage its finances responsibly.In 2023, Indonesia's public debt stood at approximately 39.6% of GDP, rising to around 40.2% in 2024, and it's expected to remain near 39–40% by the end of 2025. This steady increase reflects continued government borrowing, especially to finance expansive infrastructure development and social programmes.The implications of this debt trajectory are multi-faceted. On the positive side, investment-grade ratings and moderate debt levels signal fiscal discipline and allow the government to fund development without triggering alarm. Low debt relative to GDP helps maintain investor confidence, keeps borrowing costs stable, and enables flexibility in budgetary planning. However, critics warn that persistent increases, especially amid higher global interest rates, could elevate debt servicing costs—now accounting for roughly 20% of government revenue—and potentially crowd out private investment and essential public spending. There is concern that without a clear repayment strategy, future leaders may face tighter fiscal envelopes or heavier tax burdens.Analysts caution that the current debt management strategy may over-rely on loans without sufficient plans for repayment or growth offsets. Critics have also sounded the alarm, highlighting that interest payments are consuming a growing share of state revenue—raising questions around sustainable budgeting and long-term economic resilience.In summary, Indonesia's debt position remains manageable and sustainable in the near term, but the alarming upward trend and rising interest commitments underscore the need for prudent fiscal governance, disciplined spending, and strategic policies to ensure long-term economic stability.In terms of inflation, Indonesia's rate has consistently remained within the central bank's target band of 1.5 – 3.5 per cent. Year‑end inflation for 2024 stood at roughly 1.6 per cent, with core inflation slightly higher at 2.26 per cent. This low and stable inflation allows households and businesses to plan, save, and invest without fear of rapid erosion of their resources.
Regarding the investment climate, Indonesia has made significant progress, drawing record levels of foreign direct investment—over US$47 billion in 2023, particularly in minerals and infrastructure. The government’s omnibus law reforms, coupled with targeted regulation and a progressive sovereign wealth fund like Danantara, have improved investor confidence. However, issues such as bureaucratic obstacles, land acquisition delays, and corruption still hinder full potential.Yes, Indonesia is currently experiencing a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI), but this growth is accompanied by notable challenges and mixed investor sentiments.In the first quarter of 2025, Indonesia attracted approximately IDR 230.4 trillion (US$13.67 billion) in FDI, marking a 12.7% year-on-year increase. This growth, however, represents the slowest pace in five quarters . The sectors driving this influx include mining, metal smelting, infrastructure, and logistics, with significant investments from countries such as Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Japan .Notably, Indonesia's nickel industry has become a focal point for foreign investors, particularly after the government's ban on nickel ore exports in 2020. This policy shift has spurred investments in downstream processing and electric vehicle (EV) battery production.However, despite these positive figures, there are signs of investor caution. In early 2025, foreign investors withdrew a net IDR 2.48 trillion from the Indonesian stock market, reducing foreign ownership in the Jakarta Composite Index to 2.9%, the lowest since 2011.Critics argue that while headline FDI figures appear robust, the underlying structural issues in Indonesia—such as inconsistent policy implementation and infrastructural bottlenecks—continue to drive capital flight from certain industries. Thus, the narrative is not one of uniformly escalating investment but rather a dynamic scenario where sectors of the economy experience growth alongside areas where foreign investors remain cautious. In essence, Indonesia's investment climate is evolving, yet challenges persist that require sustained reforms and strategic policy responses to ensure broader, long-term investor confidence.It is also evident that a number of multinational companies have either scaled down operations or shifted production facilities to other countries. Factors contributing to such moves include rising labour costs, persistent regulatory uncertainties, and challenges in local supply chains, which have led some investors to relocate or close down factories.In summary, Indonesia currently strikes a balanced and improving position: moderate debt levels, controlled inflation, and growing investor interest. While not yet at the level of developed economies, these indicators portray a nation steadily gaining economic stability and credibility on the international stage.Similarly, Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Global Peace Index, and Human Development Index all contribute to understanding how secure, just, and livable a country is.
As of the most recent United Nations Human Development Report, the top five countries ranked by the Human Development Index (HDI) are Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Hong Kong (SAR), and Australia. These nations have consistently outperformed others in the key indicators of human development: life expectancy, education, and gross national income per capita. But numbers alone do not explain their success. Each of these countries carries a unique story rooted in policy, culture, and social trust.Switzerland’s top rank reflects a long-standing tradition of political neutrality, direct democracy, and a robust social welfare system. Its decentralised government empowers local communities, while universal healthcare and high-quality education ensure citizens are not just surviving, but thriving. Norway, bolstered by oil wealth, reinvests its resources into public services with remarkable transparency, turning its natural riches into a foundation for equitable growth. Iceland, though small in population, prioritises gender equality and social cohesion, creating an inclusive environment where opportunities are shared widely across the population.Hong Kong, despite its political complexities, maintains a highly efficient public service infrastructure and a competitive education system, giving it an edge in the HDI rankings. Australia, with its emphasis on multiculturalism, strong public health, and tertiary education access, also stands out as a place where the average citizen can aspire to both financial and personal fulfilment.In the end, HDI is not just a number—it’s a mirror held up to a nation’s priorities: whether it chooses to invest in people or profit, equity or division, dignity or mere survival.According to the United Nations Human Development Report 2023/2024, Indonesia ranks 117th out of 193 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) rankings, placing it in the category of "High Human Development"—but only just. With a score of 0.720, Indonesia still lags behind its regional neighbours like Malaysia and Thailand, highlighting the persistent gaps in education quality, healthcare accessibility, and income distribution. While Indonesia has made steady progress in reducing poverty and improving life expectancy, it remains haunted by deep-rooted structural inequalities and uneven development between Java and the outer islands.
In Indonesia, access to education, healthcare, political expression, and a life of dignity is a mixed reality—promising on paper, uneven in practice. Schools exist in every corner of the archipelago, but the quality of learning is still a major concern. Students in rural or outer-island areas often lack qualified teachers, proper facilities, or even basic textbooks. While the government boasts of increased budgets and digital learning platforms, critics point out that the system often prioritises form over substance. “What’s the use of free school if the learning barely sticks?” some education activists ask.Healthcare is similarly stretched. Universal Health Coverage (BPJS) was a bold step, but its implementation reveals the cracks. Long queues, overworked doctors, and inconsistent service have turned many public clinics into bureaucratic obstacle courses. The promise of affordable care doesn’t always reach the poor, especially in remote regions. As one health rights group stated, “Access is meaningless if people have to sell their goats to pay for the ‘free’ treatment.”Speaking freely in political spaces has become increasingly fraught. On paper, democracy is intact, but in reality, activists, students, and whistleblowers face surveillance, intimidation, or worse. Laws on electronic information and defamation are often used to silence dissent under the guise of “maintaining order.” Critics argue that the space for dialogue has narrowed into a hallway of mirrors—what looks open is often just a reflection of state-managed narratives.Admittedly, this kind of situation was prevalent during the Mulyono regime, where critics were silenced and even imprisoned. Even the slightest criticism would provoke an immediate reaction from paid 'buzzers' [online provocateurs]. However, more recently, since President Prabowo took office, so far, no activists have been arrested, although there have been reports of students being apprehended by authorities during demonstrations and the excitement about pig heads for Tempo. It appears President Prabowo might be better equipped to handle matters concerning 'public expression' due to his intellectual background and experience.And what of dignity? Many Indonesians still chase basic stability: a job with fair pay, a roof that doesn’t leak, and the ability to speak one’s mind without fear. Yet, dignity feels like a luxury in a system where daily survival often comes first. Civil society voices warn, “You can’t talk about dignity if people are hungry, unheard, and unseen.”Indonesia’s middle-of-the-road HDI position reflects a nation in transition: a country rich in human potential but still wrestling with governance issues, corruption, underfunded public services, and rural-urban disparities. Investment in education has increased, but learning outcomes remain inconsistent, and access to healthcare is still patchy, especially in eastern provinces. Moreover, economic growth has not always translated into inclusive prosperity; wealth remains concentrated among the elite, while many citizens in remote areas are left behind.In essence, Indonesia’s HDI ranking is a mirror of its growing pains—a country with big dreams, rising ambitions, and bursts of progress, but also with old ghosts: bureaucracy, inequality, and fragile infrastructure that still clip its wings.
Together, these frameworks allow diplomats, investors, and international bodies to evaluate whether a nation is moving towards sustainable development or drifting into instability. Ultimately, true stability is reflected not just in charts and indexes, but in the everyday lives of its people—when they feel secure, heard, and hopeful about the future.
[Part 1]
