Historically and culturally, Iran does indeed inherit a great deal from ancient Persia. Its geographical position as the "heartland" of the Middle East—connecting the Arab world, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and South Asia—is a geopolitical legacy unchanged since the Achaemenid era. Iran's national identity, too, is remarkably robust: the Persian language, a tradition of subtle diplomacy, and a deep awareness of being an ancient civilisation amongst younger nations.
Iran's strategy since 1979 does, in many respects, reflect the cunning of ancient Persia: rather than confronting the United States directly in open warfare (a contest it would plainly lose), Iran constructed the "Axis of Resistance"—a network of proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Palestine (Hamas), Yemen (the Houthis), Syria, and Iraq. Iran emerged as one of the most resilient and strategically astute actors of the modern era, enduring nearly five decades of sanctions, isolation, covert operations, and the constant threat of war. Kashmir Images. This proxy strategy is, in effect, a modern version of the ancient Persian satrapy system—exercising control over vast territories without the need for direct military occupation.
Between 2023 and 2025, Iran's regional military position deteriorated significantly. In 2024, Iran lost a crucial ally in Syria when Bashar al-Assad fled the country, severing the overland supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. American and Israeli military strikes also degraded Iran's nuclear programme and its broader national defences. House of Commons Library
In June 2025, a direct twelve-day military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran resulted in significant Iranian casualties and mounting domestic economic pressure as Western sanctions continued to tighten. SpecialEurasia
The American-Israeli military strikes that commenced on 28th February 2026 proved still more consequential. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian officials were killed, plunging the country into acute political uncertainty. RAND
A proxy network in disarray:
Israel effectively dismantled the architecture of Iran's "forward deterrence"—the network of non-state actors that Tehran had painstakingly assembled across the Levant, the Persian Gulf, and South Asia. By the end of 2024, Israel had decapitated Hezbollah's leadership by killing Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Hamas was functionally neutralised as a military force in Gaza. Eurasia Review
Mounting domestic pressure:
Iran entered 2026 beset by widespread protests, driven by a weakened economy and rampant inflation, spreading across all 31 of the country's provinces. House of Commons Library
What Iran Still Possesses
Battered as it is, Iran is not yet a spent force:
Iran still commands the most extensive ballistic missile programme in the region, as well as the capacity to project power over the Strait of Hormuz—the vital chokepoint through which some 84 per cent of the world's crude oil flows to Asian markets. NATO PA
The strategy of "deterrence through volume"—producing missiles in sufficient quantity to overwhelm Israeli and American defences—remains a central pillar of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). SpecialEurasia
China and Iran signed a comprehensive 25-year strategic partnership in 2021, whilst Russia and Iran concluded a similar 20-year agreement in 2025. In January 2026, all three countries formalised a trilateral strategic pact. RAND
Iran does genuinely inherit the geopolitical acumen of ancient Persia — patient, layered, and far from easily destroyed. For decades, its strategy of proxy warfare and asymmetric resistance proved highly effective in the face of sustained American and Israeli pressure.
Yet the events of 2025–2026 suggest that Iran is enduring the most severe trial in the history of the Islamic Republic—the loss of its Supreme Leader, the collapse of its proxy network, a deeply troubled economy, and direct military confrontation with the United States. Whether this constitutes a temporary setback of the sort Persia has historically recovered from, or a more permanent turning point, is a question that history is answering in real time.
Predictions for Iran's Future Power: Can It Survive Against the US and Israel?
The Starting Conditions That Must Be Understood
First, it must be made clear that this is no longer merely a long-term geopolitical rivalry—this is an active war. On 28th February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated air and missile strikes against multiple targets in Iran—the most significant direct military confrontation between these nations to date. The operation targeted Iranian military infrastructure and senior leadership, including strikes in Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Analysts have assessed that prolonged economic exhaustion and the erosion of public confidence in the Iranian state—following its historic military and foreign policy reverses of 2025—make 2026 the most gruelling year the Islamic Republic has ever faced.
Three Plausible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Capitulation — Iran Yields Without Collapsing (Probability: Moderate)
In a capitulation scenario, the core of the regime would in all likelihood, remain intact and continue to govern the country. This outcome is generally more palatable to Washington, which would tend to regard a change in behaviour as a satisfactory result—though for Israel, regime change may well be the preferred outcome.
In this scenario, Iran would cease rebuilding its nuclear and missile programmes, accept a stricter successor to the JCPOA, and permanently forfeit much of its regional influence—whilst the regime itself survives. This would represent the most stable outcome for the wider region.
Scenario 2: Regime Collapse and Chaos (Probability: Low to Moderate)
Should the Islamic Republic genuinely collapse—as the result of a combination of military pressure and popular uprising—the day after would present a far more turbulent picture. In a regime-change scenario, the present regime's security forces may lack both the capacity and the popular legitimacy to continue governing.
The end of the current regime would more likely give rise to what some analysts have termed an "IRGCistan"—a military-dominated state in which a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, serves as a figurehead rather than the supreme authority, with real power residing entirely within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Scenario 3: Survival and Long-term Recovery (Probability: Moderate to High over the longer term)
This is the most compelling scenario from the perspective of Persian historical precedent. Iran emerged from 2025 battered but still standing, with analysts noting that Tehran interpreted its survival after a bruising war with Israel, significant regional losses, and severe domestic pressure as grounds for taking greater risks in 2026.
Shahram Kholdi has argued that Iran's leadership internalised the events of 2025 through a survivalist lens—one that encourages defiance rather than restraint. "If something that could kill you doesn't destroy you, it makes you stronger," Kholdi observed, characterising the core mentality of the clerical regime in the aftermath of the June 2025 war with Israel.
The Trump Cards Iran Still Holds
Battered as it is, Iran is not entirely without leverage:
1. The Strait of Hormuz as a Global Hostage
The reconstitution of Iran's ballistic missile capability has become a central preoccupation of 2026. Contrary to Western intelligence assessments in 2025 regarding the destruction of key production facilities, Tehran succeeded in procuring new solid-fuel propellant equipment from external partners. The IRGC's emphasis on missile production reflects a strategy of "deterrence through volume", aimed at overwhelming Israeli and American missile defences in any future conflict.
2. Russian and Chinese Backing
Iran is also the only country in the region actively and openly supplying Russia with military equipment for use in the war in Ukraine. However, with Chinese demand for oil weakening, Beijing's willingness to come to Tehran's rescue may be diminishing.
3. The Houthis Remain Intact
The Houthis in Yemen represent a notable exception to the broader pattern of Iranian proxy disarmament. Despite sustained American, British, and Israeli strikes between 2023 and 2025, the Houthis have retained their hold on power and their influence over much of Yemeni territory.
The Factors That Will Determine Iran's Fate
The likelihood of Israel striking Iran in the near term is determined not by a single "decision" but by an unstable equilibrium unresolved by diplomacy, deterrence signalling, and regional de-escalation. Since 2024, Israel and Iran have crossed significant thresholds: Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack against Israel, and Israel demonstrated a clear willingness to strike Iranian strategic assets.
The central question remains: whether the Iranian people will choose to bring down the regime from within, or rally against the "foreign enemy" in the form of the United States and Israel—a pattern that has historically served threatened regimes rather well.
Should the regime collapse, the geopolitical realignment would be profound. It would represent a strategic victory of the first order for the United States and Israel, whilst simultaneously shattering a central pillar of Chinese and Russian influence across the Middle East.
Yet if one consults the long arc of Persian history—a civilisation that has survived Alexander the Great, the Mongols, Tamerlane, colonialism, and two world wars—one pattern recurs with remarkable consistency: Iran as a nation and a civilisation has always outlasted the regimes that have governed it. The Islamic Republic may well fall, yet Iran as a geopolitical force at the heart of Eurasia will not disappear. Whoever governs in Tehran hereafter—whether a military junta, a reformist government, or some new coalition—will inherit precisely the same geography, population, and ambitions that have kept Persia relevant for the past two and a half millennia.
What is already apparent is that the American–Israeli–Iranian conflict of 2026 is not giving birth to a new Middle Eastern superpower—rather, it is hastening the end of unchallenged American dominance and accelerating the emergence of a multipolar world order, in which Asia—and China and India in particular—stand to be the principal long-term beneficiaries.
