When Cattleya Talked (15)

"In Talkanda, there lived a revered Begawan named Resi Ganggadata. Known for his profound wisdom and contemplative nature, Resi Ganggadata often shared thought-provoking lessons with his students.

One day, Resi Ganggadata gathered his students in a serene garden. He placed a large, empty jar on a table and began to fill it with big rocks until they reached the top.

'Is this jar full?' Resi Ganggadata asked. The students nodded, believing it was.

Resi Ganggadata then took a container of small pebbles and poured them into the jar. The pebbles filled the spaces between the rocks. Is it full now?' he asked again. The students hesitated but agreed it was full.

Next, Resi Ganggadata took a bag of sand and poured it into the jar. The sand filled the remaining gaps. 'Is it full now?' he asked.

The students exchanged glances, unsure. But they reluctantly nodded, thinking it couldn’t possibly hold anything else.

Finally, Resi Ganggadata took a cup of water and poured it into the jar. The water seeped into the tiny spaces between the sand particles.

'Now,' said Resi Ganggadata, 'this jar represents your life. The big rocks symbolize the fundamental aspects of existence—your values, purpose, and relationships. These are the pillars that give life meaning and direction. Without them, life would feel empty and aimless. If you are a king, the big rocks symbolize the kingdom’s core values and priorities—social justice, the prosperity standard, and the well-being of the people. As a king, it is essential to focus on these first. Without them, the kingdom lacks direction and purpose. If you are a CEO, the big rocks symbolize the company's core priorities and strategic goals—key projects, major clients, and critical initiatives. As leaders, it’s essential to focus on these first. Without them, the company lacks of goals and targets. And in perspective yourself as an individual, the big rocks symbolize the most important things in your life—your family, health, passions, and personal growth. If you don't prioritize them, they won’t fit later.

The pebbles represent the important but secondary elements—your career, hobbies, and achievements. These contribute to a fulfilling life but should not overshadow the core values. If you are a king, the pebbles represent important but less critical tasks—trade agreements, infrastructure projects, and cultural events. These are necessary for the smooth functioning of the kingdom but should not overshadow the big rocks. If you are a CEO, the pebbles represent important but less critical tasks—team meetings, training sessions, and secondary projects. These are necessary for smooth operations but should not overshadow the big rocks. If you are an individual, the pebbles represent other essential aspects—friendships, work, and hobbies. They fill the gaps left by the big rocks.

The sand signifies the minor details and daily routines—chores, errands, and distractions. While necessary, they should not dominate your time and energy. If you are a king, the sand signifies the everyday tasks and minor details—administrative duties, routine inspections, and minor disputes. While they need to be addressed, they should not consume the majority of our time and energy. If you are a CEO, the sand signifies the everyday tasks and minor details—emails, routine paperwork, and administrative duties. While they need to be addressed, they should not consume the majority of our time and energy. If you are an individual, the sand signifies the smaller, everyday tasks—the mundane routines, minor obligations, and distractions. They'll always find a place if you let them.

And water? The water—or it can be tea or coffee—represents the moments of reflection and tranquillity—the pauses that allow you to savour life, gain clarity, and find inner peace. If you are a king, It represents the moments of connection and joy—festivals, celebrations, and moments of unity. These moments, though small, enrich the kingdom’s culture and foster a sense of community. If you are a CEO, it represents the moments of connection and team bonding—casual conversations, celebrations, and shared experiences. These moments, though small, enrich the workplace culture and foster a sense of community. If you are an individual, that represents the little pleasures—the moments of joy, laughter, and relaxation. Even when life seems full, there’s room for these delightful experiences.

Resi Ganggadata continued, 'The lesson? Prioritize your big rocks first—the things that truly matter. Then fit in the pebbles, sand, and water. If you start with the small stuff, you won’t have space for what truly counts. If you fill your jar with sand first, there won’t be room for the big rocks or even the pebbles. As seekers of wisdom, you must prioritize your core values and purpose. Only then can you fit in the smaller tasks and enjoy the moments of reflection that enrich your life.

Life isn’t about filling the jar—it’s about choosing what to put in it. May this philosophical adaptation inspire you to reflect on your priorities and lead a life filled with purpose and meaning.'"

Cattleya moved on, "Environmental factors like environmental degradation and widespread disease can significantly weaken a nation in several ways. Environmental degradation, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and water pollution, reduces the availability and quality of natural resources. For example, deforestation can lead to soil degradation, which diminishes agricultural yields. This directly affects farmers' incomes and the nation's food supply. Industries reliant on natural resources, like agriculture, fishing, and tourism, suffer when resources are depleted or degraded. For instance, overfishing can collapse fish stocks, harming the fishing industry and related sectors like seafood processing and export. Pollution and poor environmental conditions can lead to health problems among the workforce, decreasing overall productivity. For example, air pollution can cause respiratory issues, leading to increased absenteeism and lower worker efficiency.

Widespread diseases drive up healthcare costs as the government and individuals spend more on medical treatments, hospitalizations, and preventive measures. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased healthcare spending globally. Natural disasters exacerbated by environmental degradation, such as floods or hurricanes, require substantial investment to repair and rebuild infrastructure. This diverts funds from other critical areas like education and infrastructure development. Resources that could be used for economic development are instead allocated to address environmental and health crises. This misallocation hampers long-term economic growth and development.

When a nation faces widespread disease, its healthcare systems can become overwhelmed, leading to inadequate medical care for the population. This can result in higher mortality rates and decreased life expectancy. Health crises can cause widespread fear and panic, disrupting daily life and economic activities. For example, during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, fear of contagion led to the closure of markets and schools, disrupting livelihoods and education. If the government fails to effectively manage health crises, public trust in institutions can decline, leading to scepticism about government directives and reduced cooperation with public health measures.

Environmental degradation, such as rising sea levels or desertification, forces people to migrate from their homes. This can lead to overcrowded urban areas, increased competition for jobs, housing, and essential services, and heightened social tensions.

As populations migrate, competition for scarce resources like water and arable land can intensify, potentially leading to conflicts between different communities or ethnic groups. For instance, the Syrian civil war has been partly attributed to prolonged droughts that led to agricultural collapse and mass migration. Increased migration puts pressure on social services, including healthcare, education, and housing, potentially leading to declines in service quality and increased social inequality.

When governments fail to address environmental degradation or effectively manage disease outbreaks, citizens may perceive them as incompetent. This can lead to protests, decreased political participation, and leadership challenges. Inadequate policies to tackle environmental issues or public health crises can result in political instability. For example, the mismanagement of the Flint water crisis in the United States led to significant public outrage and loss of trust in local government officials. Persistent failures in addressing key issues can weaken democratic institutions, leading to authoritarianism or reduced democratic freedoms as governments attempt to maintain control.

Scarce resources within a nation, such as water shortages or land disputes, can lead to internal conflicts between different groups or regions. These conflicts can destabilize the nation and divert resources from development to conflict resolution. Environmental degradation can exacerbate tensions between neighbouring countries over shared resources like rivers, lakes, or coastal areas. For instance, disputes over water rights from shared rivers can strain diplomatic relations and potentially lead to conflicts. Nations may allocate more resources to military efforts to secure resources, reducing investments in other critical areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Environmental degradation increases the frequency and severity of natural disasters, which can devastate infrastructure, displace populations, and require extensive recovery efforts. For example, deforestation can exacerbate flooding, while coastal degradation can increase vulnerability to hurricanes. Natural disasters can disrupt supply chains, trade, and economic activities, leading to economic instability. The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan had significant economic repercussions both domestically and globally. Degraded environments can lead to scarcity of essential resources like clean water and arable land, which are critical for national stability and security.

Climate change is a global issue that affects all nations. Countries that fail to mitigate or adapt to climate change may face severe economic and social repercussions, affecting their standing and relationships on the global stage. Diseases do not respect national borders. Nations unprepared for pandemics can contribute to global health crises, affecting international relations, trade, and cooperation. Environmental and health crises require coordinated international responses. Nations struggling with these issues may find it challenging to participate effectively in global initiatives, weakening alliances and partnerships.

Addressing environmental degradation and disease often requires significant resources, which can detract from investments in other development areas such as education, infrastructure, and technology. Health crises can diminish human capital by increasing mortality rates and reducing the workforce's productivity and education levels. This hampers innovation and economic growth. Environmental disasters and health crises can disrupt education systems, leading to lower educational attainment and reduced future workforce capabilities.

Persistent environmental and health challenges can trap nations in a cycle of poverty, where limited economic growth prevents investment in environmental protection and public health, further exacerbating the issues. Environmental degradation and disease often disproportionately affect vulnerable and marginalized populations, increasing social inequality and hindering inclusive development. Continuous environmental and health challenges can lead to long-term political and social instability, making it difficult to achieve sustained economic and social development.

Environmental degradation and disease can impact future generations such as access to education. In regions where children have to migrate or suffer from health issues due to environmental problems, school attendance drops, limiting the development of future human capital. Additionally, the focus on surviving current crises may limit investment in youth education and training, which are essential for long-term innovation and economic competitiveness. The inability to effectively address environmental and health crises can also damage a nation's global standing. Poor responses may lead to reduced foreign investment, trade restrictions, or exclusion from international agreements, further isolating the country and impeding long-term development goals.

'Our Common Future,' also known as the Brundtland Report, is a seminal document published in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). The commission, chaired by Gro Harlem Brundtland, was established by the United Nations to address growing concerns about the accelerating deterioration of the human environment and natural resources and the consequences of that deterioration on economic and social development.

The report is most famous for popularizing the concept of 'sustainable development,' which it defines as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." It emphasizes the interconnections between environmental sustainability, economic growth, and social equity, arguing that these elements must be integrated into global development strategies. WCED highlights the accelerating deterioration of the human environment and natural resources as a critical challenge facing the world. The report details how this deterioration impacts economic and social development, emphasizing that environmental degradation and resource depletion are deeply intertwined with poverty, inequality, and unsustainable economic practices. The report identifies widespread environmental issues such as deforestation, desertification, soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, pollution of air and water, and the depletion of the ozone layer. These issues are driven by industrial activities, agriculture, urbanization, and unsustainable land use practices. The overexploitation of natural resources, including fossil fuels, minerals, forests, water, and fisheries, is a major concern. The report argues that the current rate of resource extraction is unsustainable and will lead to resource scarcity, higher costs, and conflicts over access to essential resources.

Environmental degradation leads to economic inefficiencies by increasing the costs of production and reducing the availability of resources. For example, soil erosion can reduce agricultural productivity, and pollution can increase healthcare costs and decrease worker productivity. The report warns that continued environmental degradation will undermine long-term economic growth. The depletion of essential natural resources and the degradation of ecosystems can limit the ability of economies to grow sustainably, leading to potential economic stagnation or decline. The consequences of environmental degradation disproportionately affect poorer countries and communities, exacerbating global inequalities. Developing countries often rely heavily on natural resources for their economies, and environmental damage can trap them in cycles of poverty.

The report emphasizes that environmental degradation exacerbates poverty and social inequality. Poor communities often depend directly on natural resources for their livelihoods, and when these resources are depleted or degraded, their ability to sustain themselves is threatened. This can lead to increased poverty, malnutrition, and social unrest. Environmental problems such as air and water pollution, toxic waste, and inadequate sanitation contribute to a range of health issues, particularly in developing countries. These health problems can reduce the quality of life, increase healthcare costs, and limit economic opportunities. The degradation of the environment can force people to migrate, leading to increased urbanization and pressure on cities, which often results in the growth of slums and further social and environmental problems. This migration can also lead to conflicts over land and resources.

The report argues that to address these challenges, the world must adopt a new approach to development—sustainable development—which balances economic growth with environmental protection and social equity. The goal is to create development paths that can provide for the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This requires rethinking economic policies, technological choices, and consumption patterns to ensure that they are environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive.

By linking environmental sustainability directly with economic and social development, 'Our Common Future' advocates for a holistic approach to global development, where environmental stewardship, economic growth, and social progress are pursued simultaneously and in a mutually reinforcing manner.

Environmental degradation and widespread disease often interact with each other and with other societal factors, creating complex challenges. For example, climate change can exacerbate the spread of diseases by altering habitats and increasing the range of disease vectors like mosquitoes.

Facing severe environmental degradation due to deforestation, river erosion, and cyclones, Bangladesh struggles with economic losses, displacement, and challenges in maintaining infrastructure and services. The Ebola outbreak severely impacted the economies of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone by disrupting trade, reducing workforce productivity, and overwhelming healthcare systems. Countries like the Maldives face existential threats from rising sea levels, which can lead to loss of territory, displacement of populations, and economic collapse reliant on tourism and fishing.

Nicole Perlroth discusses how global crises like pandemics and environmental disasters can exacerbate cybersecurity vulnerabilities. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid shift to remote work exposed many organizations to cyberattacks due to the rushed implementation of remote systems and inadequate security measures. Adversaries, including nation-states and cybercriminals, often exploit the chaos and distraction caused by global crises to launch cyberattacks. These attacks can target critical infrastructure, such as healthcare systems during a pandemic or power grids during environmental disasters, further compounding the crisis.

Perlroth emphasizes how cyberattacks can compound the effects of other global crises. For instance, a cyberattack on a healthcare system during a pandemic could cripple a nation's ability to respond effectively, leading to higher mortality rates and greater social and economic disruption. Many critical infrastructures, such as energy, water, and transportation systems, are increasingly dependent on digital technologies. Environmental threats like extreme weather events can damage physical infrastructure, and simultaneous cyberattacks can disrupt the digital systems controlling these infrastructures, creating a cascading failure.

Global crises can lead to economic instability, which can be worsened by cyberattacks targeting financial systems, supply chains, and other economic infrastructures. Perlroth describes how cyberattacks during a pandemic or environmental disaster can exacerbate economic downturns, leading to prolonged recovery periods. Global crises weaken national security by creating opportunities for adversaries to launch cyberattacks. In the context of environmental threats, for instance, a nation already struggling with the aftermath of a natural disaster might find it difficult to defend against or recover from a significant cyberattack on its military or government systems.

Perlroth points out that the intersection of global crises and cyber vulnerabilities can erode public trust in institutions. If a nation fails to protect its citizens from cyberattacks during a pandemic or environmental disaster, confidence in government and public institutions can decline, leading to social unrest and political instability.

Addressing environmental degradation and disease requires global cooperation, as these issues transcend national borders. International frameworks like the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization's initiatives are crucial in coordinating efforts to mitigate these threats and support affected nations.

Environmental degradation and widespread disease pose multifaceted threats to national stability and development. Their impacts ripple through economic systems, social structures, political institutions, and security frameworks, creating vulnerabilities that can weaken a nation both internally and in its interactions on the global stage. Effective management and proactive measures are essential to mitigate these threats and ensure sustainable development and national resilience.

Given its importance, we will continue our discussion on environmental and developmental issues. Biidhnillah.”

Following this, Cattleya recited a poem,

In fields once green, now shadows fall,

Where nature’s cries for help enthrall.

Yet hope persists, in hands we lend,

For sustainable paths we must defend.

Citations & References:

- World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, 1987, Oxford University Press

- Nicole Perlroth, This is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race, 2021, Bloomsbury Publishing

[Session 16]

[Session 14]

Bahasa

When Cattleya Talked (14)

"I the quaint land called Thousands Islands, there existed a park like no other. It was called 'Whimsy Meadows,' and its recent renovation had turned it into a surreal wonderland. The townsfolk gathered there, eager to experience its newfound delights.

A local singer, with a penchant for ballad tunes, stood at the park’s entrance. His guitar slung over his shoulder, he crooned Ebiet G. Ade's song titled 'Song for a Name.' The lyrics beautifully captured the emotional impact of music on the soul: Why should my soul tremble? While I've heard the music is sweet ....

As the singer sang, he gestured toward the park. The once-green grass now resembled Swiss cheese, riddled with holes. The newly installed swings and slides were pristine, but they came with a disclaimer: 'For Display Only.' No one dared touch them, fearing they might unravel the fabric of reality.

Whimsy Meadows had guardians—peculiar beings in oversized top hats and monocles. They patrolled the park, ensuring that visitors adhered to its nonsensical rules. 'No skipping on the cracks!' they’d shout, chasing anyone who dared step on a hole.

Ah, the odong-odong—a garishly painted carnival ride that once delighted children. Now, it was a monochromatic monstrosity, its rainbow hues reduced to a single shade of beige. Only a select few could ride it—the ones who could recite the Fibonacci sequence backwards while hopping on one leg.

And then there was a man, the enigma. He’d been spotted near the park’s fountain, whispering to the pigeons. Some said he was the mastermind behind Whimsy Meadows’ absurdity. Others claimed he was merely a pawn in a cosmic game of chess.

In cyberspace, a digital wanted poster circulated. Grainy images of the man adorned every forum and social media platform. The caption read:

Wanted:

MOELJONO

Con Artist and Park Destroyer

Rewards were promised—cryptocurrency, rare memes, and a lifetime supply of virtual confetti.

One moonlit night, as the guardians slept (or perhaps daydreamed of fractals), the man stood atop the odong-odong. And then, he vanished into the park’s most absurd culvert, leaving behind a trail of paradoxes and unanswered questions.

And so, my dear friends, if you ever visit Whimsy Meadows, keep an eye out for the man. But beware: you might just lose your name, your sanity, or both."

[Note: Any resemblance to actual parks, singers, or reality is purely coincidental. Or is it?]

"When a nation becomes overly dependent on foreign aid, investments, or trade partners, it may lose its economic sovereignty and become vulnerable to external manipulation or exploitation. Economic dependency can lead to long-term weakening of domestic industries and innovation," Cattleya proceeded.

"Economic dependency occurs when a nation relies heavily on another country or external entities for financial support, trade, or critical resources. When a nation is economically dependent, it may have to align its policies with the interests of the dominant country or entity to maintain the flow of resources or aid. This can limit its ability to pursue independent economic or political strategies. Economic dependency can make a nation vulnerable to external economic shocks, such as fluctuations in global commodity prices, changes in trade policies, or financial crises in the partner country. These shocks can destabilize the dependent nation's economy, leading to recession or financial instability. Dependence on foreign investment or aid can hinder the development of domestic industries, as local businesses may struggle to compete with foreign companies or rely on imported goods rather than developing local production. Over time, this can weaken the nation's economic base and reduce its ability to generate sustainable growth.

Greece's economic dependency on European Union loans during the Eurozone crisis (2009-2015) highlighted the vulnerabilities of relying on external financial support. To receive bailout funds, Greece had to implement austerity measures dictated by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These measures led to severe economic contraction, high unemployment, and social unrest, weakening Greece's economy and exacerbating political instability.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto present a nuanced version of dependency theory, a framework that critiques the economic relationships between developed and developing nations. According to Cardoso and Faletto, dependency refers to a situation where the development of a nation's economy is conditioned by the development and expansion of another, typically more powerful, nation. In Latin America, this often manifests as an economic structure reliant on exporting primary goods to industrialized nations, leading to vulnerabilities in the domestic economy and limiting its capacity for autonomous growth. They emphasize that dependency is influenced by both external and internal factors. External factors include the global economic system and the influence of multinational corporations, while internal factors involve local political, social, and economic structures. The interaction between these factors shapes the nature and degree of dependency.

Many Latin American countries developed economies that were heavily reliant on the export of primary commodities (such as minerals, agricultural products, and raw materials) to more industrialized nations. This reliance created economic structures that were externally oriented and dependent on global market conditions, leaving these economies vulnerable to price fluctuations and demand shifts in international markets. The focus on exports of raw materials often led to the underdevelopment of domestic industries. Because the most profitable sectors were tied to foreign markets, local investment and policy attention were diverted away from building robust domestic manufacturing or service industries, resulting in limited industrial diversification and innovation.

Latin American countries often relied on foreign capital to finance infrastructure, industry, and development projects. However, these investments were typically controlled by foreign corporations or governments, which directed profits back to their home countries rather than reinvesting them locally. This led to a situation where economic growth in Latin America was largely dictated by the interests of foreign investors, rather than by national development goals. Foreign capital often dominated key sectors of the economy, such as mining, agriculture, and energy. This control limited the ability of Latin American governments to make independent economic decisions and pursue policies that prioritized national interests over those of foreign investors. As a result, economic policies were frequently shaped to attract and accommodate foreign capital, often at the expense of local development needs.

The dependence on foreign capital and markets weakened the bargaining power of Latin American countries in international negotiations. Their economies became susceptible to external pressures, including the imposition of unfavourable trade terms, debt conditions, or economic sanctions by more powerful nations or international financial institutions. Dependency on foreign investment and markets often constrained the policy choices available to Latin American governments. For example, they might have been pressured to maintain low taxes on foreign corporations or to adopt neoliberal economic policies that prioritized market liberalization and privatization, even when these policies were detrimental to local economies.

The reliance on foreign capital and markets eroded the economic sovereignty of Latin American countries. Decision-making in key areas of economic policy was increasingly influenced by foreign interests, reducing the ability of national governments to control their economic destinies. This dependency stunted the development of local industries and innovation. With profits and resources flowing out of the country, there was less reinvestment in education, technology, and infrastructure that could have fostered more diversified and sustainable economic growth. As a result, many Latin American countries experienced limited industrialization and remained trapped in a cycle of dependency and underdevelopment.

The economic structures shaped by dependency often exacerbated social inequality, as the wealth generated by export industries and foreign investments was concentrated in the hands of a small elite, while the broader population saw little benefit. This inequality further hindered social cohesion and the development of a broad-based, inclusive economy. The economic dependency and resultant social inequalities also contributed to political instability. The interests of the domestic elite, who often aligned with foreign investors, were at odds with those of the broader population, leading to tensions and, in some cases, conflicts that further undermined national development.

Oswaldo De Rivero critically examines the concept of development and argues that many developing countries fall into what he terms a trap of dependency on foreign aid and investment. According to De Rivero, this dependency is detrimental and leads to several negative consequences that undermine true development and long-term economic viability. De Rivero argues that foreign aid and investment often create the illusion of development rather than fostering genuine economic growth. Countries become dependent on external resources to maintain basic services and infrastructure, but this dependency does not translate into sustainable development or economic independence. Instead, it perpetuates a cycle where the countries rely on continuous external support without building their capacities.

The reliance on foreign aid and investment can lead to the perpetuation of underdevelopment. De Rivero suggests that foreign aid often comes with conditions or agendas set by donor countries or international organizations, which may not align with the recipient country's long-term development needs. This misalignment can result in the implementation of policies that are more beneficial to the donors than to the recipients, further entrenching underdevelopment. Dependency on foreign aid and investment can stifle the growth of domestic industries and innovation. When a country relies heavily on external resources, there is less incentive to develop local industries, technologies, or entrepreneurial ventures. This stifling effect prevents the country from creating a self-sustaining economy, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks and global market fluctuations.

De Rivero highlights that dependency on foreign aid and investment erodes a country's economic sovereignty. Decision-making power often shifts from national governments to foreign donors or investors, who may prioritize their own interests over those of the local population. This loss of sovereignty makes it difficult for countries to pursue independent economic policies that could lead to sustainable development. Many developing countries fall into a vicious cycle of debt due to their dependency on foreign aid and investment. Loans and financial assistance often come with high-interest rates or unfavorable repayment terms, leading to an increasing debt burden. As countries struggle to repay these debts, they become even more reliant on new loans or aid, further deepening their dependency and financial vulnerability.

De Rivero expands the concept of dependency beyond just economic factors, arguing that it contributes to a broader 'crisis of civilization.' He suggests that the dependency trap is part of a global system that prioritizes economic growth and development as the ultimate goals, often at the expense of environmental sustainability, social equity, and cultural integrity. This crisis reflects the unsustainable nature of a development model that is heavily reliant on external resources and fails to address the underlying structural issues within developing countries.

Dani Rodrik explores the inherent tensions between globalization, national sovereignty, and economic stability. He argues that these three elements are often in conflict with one another, and achieving a balance among them is challenging for nations operating within the global economy. Rodrik argues that globalization, particularly in its economic form, tends to erode national sovereignty by limiting the ability of governments to set their policies. As countries integrate into global markets, they are often required to adopt policies that are favourable to international trade and investment but may not align with their domestic priorities or values. For example, global trade agreements and the rules of international financial institutions often impose constraints on how governments can regulate their economies, manage their currencies, or protect their industries. The competition for foreign investment and access to global markets can lead to a "race to the bottom," where countries feel pressured to lower labour standards, environmental regulations, and corporate taxes to attract multinational corporations. This undermines the ability of governments to protect their citizens' welfare and pursue policies that reflect national interests.

Rodrik highlights that the globalization of finance can lead to increased economic instability. The free flow of capital across borders can result in financial volatility, as seen in numerous financial crises where sudden shifts in investor sentiment led to massive capital outflows, currency devaluations, and economic recessions. Countries that are deeply integrated into global financial markets are more susceptible to these shocks, which can have severe consequences for economic stability. Economic globalization often limits the effectiveness of traditional domestic policy tools. For example, when countries are deeply integrated into the global economy, the effectiveness of monetary policy can be compromised because capital can easily flow across borders, diminishing the control of central banks over interest rates and inflation. This makes it more difficult for governments to stabilize their economies in times of crisis.

Rodrik introduces the concept of the "political trilemma of the world economy," which posits that it is impossible to simultaneously achieve full economic globalization, national sovereignty, and democratic governance. Countries can only fully achieve two of these three objectives. For instance, if a country prioritizes national sovereignty and economic stability, it may need to limit its integration into the global economy (e.g., by implementing capital controls or trade barriers). If a country prioritizes globalization and economic stability, it might need to cede some national sovereignty to international institutions or rules that enforce global economic norms. If a country prioritizes national sovereignty and globalization, it might have to sacrifice some economic stability, as it cannot fully control its economic policies in the face of global market forces.

Rodrik argues that globalization can also create tensions with democratic governance. When national governments must comply with international economic agreements or the demands of global markets, they may be forced to implement policies that are unpopular with their citizens. This can lead to a democratic deficit, where decisions that affect the daily lives of citizens are made by international organizations or influenced by global market forces, rather than through democratic processes within the country. The discontent with the impact of globalization on national sovereignty and economic stability can lead to public backlash, including the rise of populism, nationalism, and protectionism. Citizens may demand a return to more nationally focused policies, even if these are at odds with the principles of economic globalization.

In addition to economic dependency risk, external environmental pressures, such as climate change, natural disasters, or resource scarcity, can strain a nation's capacity to respond effectively, leading to social unrest, displacement of populations, and challenges to national security. Climate change and environmental degradation can lead to the scarcity of critical resources such as water, arable land, and energy. This scarcity can exacerbate conflicts, drive population displacement, and strain governmental resources. Environmental disasters, such as floods, droughts, or hurricanes, can cause significant economic damage by destroying infrastructure, disrupting agriculture, and displacing communities. Rebuilding efforts can be costly, and frequent disasters can hinder long-term economic development. Environmental pressures can lead to internal migration, competition for resources, and increased tensions among communities. In some cases, these pressures can contribute to social unrest, conflict, and challenges to government authority.

The Sahel region in Africa is facing severe environmental pressures due to climate change, leading to desertification, droughts, and resource scarcity. These environmental challenges have exacerbated food insecurity, driven mass migration, and fueled conflicts over land and water resources. The governments in the region, already struggling with poverty and political instability, have found it difficult to manage these pressures, leading to further weakening of state capacity and social cohesion.

Michael T. Klare explores how competition for natural resources—such as oil, water, and minerals—has become a significant factor in global conflicts. Klare argues that as resources become scarcer, conflicts over them will intensify, leading to new kinds of wars and international tensions. Oil is the most vital resource in Klare's analysis, given its essential role in the global economy and military power. Control over oil reserves and supply routes, such as the Persian Gulf, has been a major driver of international tensions and conflicts. Klare discusses the Gulf Wars as examples where oil was a central factor. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the subsequent U.S.-led intervention were partly driven by the desire to control oil resources and secure global energy supplies.

Water scarcity, particularly in arid regions, leads to conflicts over shared water sources like rivers and lakes. Klare highlights the Nile River, Tigris-Euphrates basin, and Jordan River as potential flashpoints where countries could engage in conflict over water access and control. As populations grow and climate change affects water availability, the competition for clean water resources intensifies. This competition can exacerbate existing political and ethnic tensions, leading to conflict.

Minerals like diamonds, copper, and rare earth elements are critical for industrial processes and military applications. The control of these resources can lead to power struggles, particularly in regions rich in minerals but plagued by weak governance. Klare discusses how mineral wealth can lead to corruption, civil war, and external intervention, a phenomenon often referred to as the 'resource curse.' The Democratic Republic of Congo is a key example, where mineral wealth has fueled ongoing conflict and attracted foreign interests.

Major powers, particularly the United States, have often intervened in resource-rich regions to secure their interests. This can lead to proxy wars, where local conflicts are exacerbated by the involvement of global powers seeking to control resources. Klare notes the increasing militarization of regions rich in resources, where military bases and interventions are justified by the need to protect access to vital resources.

As global demand for resources continues to rise, driven by population growth and economic development, the potential for conflict over these resources will likely increase. Klare predicts that resource wars will become more common and intense in the future. Countries with significant resources may adopt protectionist policies, leading to tensions with other nations that depend on those resources. This nationalism can lead to conflicts both within and between nations.

Klare's analysis suggests that as resources become scarcer and more valuable, they will increasingly be at the centre of global conflicts, making resource management and international cooperation crucial to preventing wars.

Saeid Eslamian and Faezeh Eslamian discuss how climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and storms. They examine the science behind these changes and the implications for different regions and communities. Rising global temperatures are causing more intense storms, prolonged droughts, and unpredictable weather patterns, which can trigger disasters like floods, wildfires, and landslides. The impacts of climate change are not uniform; some regions are more vulnerable than others. For instance, coastal areas are at higher risk of sea-level rise and hurricanes, while arid regions face the threat of desertification and water scarcity. Climate change also disrupts ecosystems, leading to loss of biodiversity, which can exacerbate disaster risks. For example, deforestation increases the likelihood of landslides, while the loss of coral reefs makes coastal areas more susceptible to storm surges.

Saeid Eslamian and Faezeh Eslamian emphasize the importance of climate change adaptation in building resilience. This includes adapting existing infrastructure, developing new technologies, and creating policies that can help societies better cope with the impacts of climate change. Adaptation involves making adjustments in social, economic, and environmental practices to minimize the negative impacts of climate change. This can include changing agricultural practices, modifying water management systems, and developing climate-resilient crops. Building resilience means designing infrastructure that can withstand the impacts of climate change. For example, constructing homes on stilts in flood-prone areas or using materials that can endure extreme weather conditions. They stress the importance of building social resilience—strengthening the capacity of communities to recover from disasters. This includes promoting social cohesion, supporting vulnerable groups, and ensuring that recovery efforts are inclusive and equitable.

Effective climate change adaptation require strong governance structures that can coordinate efforts, allocate resources, and enforce regulations. Governance structures refer to the organizational frameworks and processes that guide decision-making, coordination, and resource allocation in managing disaster risks and adapting to climate change. In a centralized governance model, decision-making authority is concentrated at the national or central government level. This model often involves top-down approaches, where policies and strategies are formulated by central authorities and then implemented across the country. Centralized models can ensure uniformity in policy implementation and allow for the rapid mobilization of resources in response to disasters. They are particularly effective in countries with strong central governments and well-developed administrative systems. Centralized governance may face difficulties in addressing local needs and contexts, as decisions made at the national level may not always align with the specific conditions of different regions or communities. This model can also lead to slower responses to localized disasters if the central authority is overwhelmed or disconnected from on-the-ground realities.

Decentralized governance involves distributing decision-making authority to regional, local, or municipal governments. This model emphasizes local autonomy, with local authorities playing a significant role in designing and implementing adaptation strategies. Decentralized models are often more responsive to local needs and conditions, allowing for tailored solutions that take into account specific risks and vulnerabilities. They also encourage local ownership of DRR and CCA efforts, which can enhance community engagement and participation. Decentralization can lead to inconsistencies in policy implementation and a lack of coordination between different levels of government. It may also result in unequal resource distribution.

They underscore that no single governance model is universally superior; the effectiveness of each model depends on the specific context, including the type of disaster risk, the socio-political environment, and the resources available. The key is to tailor governance structures to fit the local context while ensuring coordination and collaboration across different levels and sectors.

In the next session, we will still talk about the Environment from the perspective of factors that weaken a nation. Biidhnillah."

Then Cattleya recited a poem,

Interwoven fates, economies entwined,

Nature’s whispers ignored, progress maligned.

As resources wane, nations falter and sway,

In the delicate balance, strength begins to decay.

Citations & References:

- Fernando Henrique Cardoso & Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America, 1979, University of California Press

- Oswaldo De Rivero, The Myth of Development: Non-Viable Economies and the Crisis of Civilization, 2010, Zed Books

- Dani Rodrik, The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, 2011, W. W. Norton

- Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars: The New Ladscape of Global Conflict, 2002, Owl Books

- Saeid Eslamian & Faezeh Eslamian (Eds.), Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Adaptation, 2023, Springer

[Session 15]

[Session 13]

Bahasa

When Cattleya Talked (13)

"The Drunken Warrior, swaying like a tipsy palm tree in a hurricane, regaled us with a tale. As he soars over mist-covered mountains, his words pirouette between magic and wonder, like a tiddly ballerina dancer trying to find the exit. So, the story goes like this,

In a cozy corner of the old liquor cabinet, three peculiar companions found themselves in an animated conversation. The first was an elegant whisky bottle, its glass etched with tales of distant lands and forgotten nights. Next to it sat a salty peanut—a sophist by nature, albeit a crunchy one. And finally, a pristine mineral water bottle stood, its label pristine and its purpose clear: to be swallowed.

The whisky bottle, with a corked sense of humour, leaned against the dusty shelf. 'Listen, guys,' it began, 'I’m more than a mere vessel for amber liquid. I hold memories—of poets, sailors, and broken promises.'

The peanut, perched nearby, nodded sagely. 'Life is like a nut,' it mused. 'Sometimes salty, sometimes cracked, but always worth nibbling.'

The mineral water bottle interrupted, its tone crisp. 'Can we focus on practical matters? Like maintaining proper pH levels?'

The trio’s escapade began that moonlit night. They rolled off the shelf, their labels smudged but spirits high. The whisky bottle led the way, swaying like a tiddly ballerina. The peanut followed, philosophizing with squirrels and pigeons. And the mineral water bottle? It remained aloof, judging everyone’s hydration choices.

As they wobbled across countertops, they startled the cat and knocked over spice jars. The whisky bottle laughed, 'We’re vintage, my dears! They’ll frame us, not recycle us.'

Their adventure took them beyond the kitchen. The whisky bottle became a bard, reciting poetry to moonlit glasses. The peanut wrote a bestselling book titled 'Crunching Through Existence.' And the mineral water bottle? It dutifully watered houseplants, its judgmental gaze fixed on chlorophyll levels.

Their adventure took them beyond the kitchen. The whisky bottle became a bard, reciting poetry to moonlit glasses. The peanut wrote a bestselling book titled 'Crunching Through Existence.' And the mineral water bottle? It dutifully watered houseplants, its judgmental gaze fixed on chlorophyll levels.

'And so, my dear friends, next time you sip whisky, crunch a peanut or hydrate with mineral water, remember the tipsy trio—their laughter, absurdity, and spirited legacy. Life, like their misadventure, is best enjoyed with a dash of whiskycal,' our warrior concludes."

[Disclaimer: No bottles, peanuts, or mineral water were harmed in the making of this tale. Drink responsibly, and may your adventures be as spirited as theirs!]

"The spread of foreign cultural or ideological influences can sometimes lead to internal divisions, erode traditional values, or challenge the existing political and social order. This can weaken national identity and create internal conflicts" said Cattleya, following up the previous discussion.

"External cultural and ideological influences can challenge a nation's existing social and political order. The influx of foreign cultural norms, values, and lifestyles can erode traditional practices and beliefs. This can create a generational divide or lead to cultural homogenization, where unique cultural identities are lost.

Competing ideologies, especially if they are promoted by foreign entities, can exacerbate existing social divisions. For example, the spread of radical ideologies or foreign political models can lead to polarization, civil unrest, or even the rise of extremist groups.

When foreign ideologies or cultural values challenge the legitimacy of the ruling government or the existing social order, it can lead to political instability. This can weaken the government's ability to govern effectively and maintain social cohesion.

During the Cold War, many Latin American countries experienced internal conflicts fueled by external ideological influences from the United States and the Soviet Union. For example, in Chile, the U.S. supported a coup that overthrew the democratically elected socialist president Salvador Allende in 1973. This intervention led to decades of dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet, marked by human rights abuses and deep societal divisions.

Samuel P. Huntington discusses how the spread of Western values and ideologies can lead to resistance and divisions within non-Western societies, contributing to internal conflicts and the erosion of traditional identities. Huntington argues that modernization does not necessarily mean Westernization. He also suggests that the spread of Western values and institutions can be challenging for non-Western societies due to cultural incompatibilities. For example, he notes that Western democratic institutions face difficulties in taking root in non-Western cultures, such as Chinese Confucian culture, because of essential differences in values and traditions.

The spread of Western values can lead to the erosion of traditional identities within non-Western societies. Huntington argues that this erosion is a pivotal internal challenge to Western civilization itself, as it undermines the cultural cohesion necessary for maintaining power and influence in the global arena. Huntington notes that global communications dominated by the West are a major source of resentment and hostility among non-Western peoples. This perceived dominance can exacerbate cultural and ideological differences, contributing to internal conflicts and divisions within non-Western societies.

Huntington argues that America was founded by British settlers who brought with them a distinct culture, including the English language, Protestant values, individualism, religious commitment, and respect for law. He discusses how waves of immigrants gradually accepted these values and assimilated into America's Anglo-Protestant culture. However, more recent immigration, particularly from Hispanic countries, has led to challenges such as bilingualism, multiculturalism, the devaluation of citizenship, and the 'denationalization' of American elites. Huntington contends that the assimilation of massive numbers of primarily Hispanic immigrants has eroded American national identity. He argues that this erosion is exacerbated by issues like bilingualism and multiculturalism. Huntington critiques the liberal elites for being out of touch with the broader American population. He argues that these elites often promote multiculturalism and bilingualism, which he believes undermine traditional American values.

Some reviewers have noted that Huntington's ideas anticipate many of the political and intellectual battles of contemporary America, but others have criticized his narrow view of American uniqueness and his warnings against multiculturalism and immigration.

Lawrence E. Harrison and Samuel P. Huntington feature a diverse group of scholars, journalists, and practitioners, including prominent figures like Francis Fukuyama, Nathan Glazer, Ronald Inglehart, Seymour Martin Lipset, Orlando Patterson, Michael Porter, Jeffrey Sachs, Richard Shweder, explore the question of why some countries and ethnic groups are better off than others, focusing on the role that cultural values play in driving political, economic, and social development. They argues that cultural values play a significant role in shaping human progress, including political, economic, and social development. They posit that cultural values are a powerful factor in promoting development and that value change is indispensable to future progress in underdeveloped countries. contend that there is a strong link between cultural values and human progress. Cultural values influence how individuals perceive risks, rewards, and opportunities, which in turn affects economic and social outcomes.

They critique universal explanations for social, political, and economic behaviour, such as material self-interest among economists or rational choice among political scientists. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of cultural factors in shaping societal outcomes. 'Culture is the mother; institutions are the children,' suggesting that cultural values shape the development of institutions, which then influence societal behaviour. The success of certain ethnic groups in different countries despite similar economic policies highlights the role of cultural factors in their achievements. Appropriate economic policy effectively implemented will produce the same results without reference to culture. Cultural differences can lead to varying responses to economic policies, affecting their success.

They define culture in various ways, reflecting the complexity and multifaceted nature of the concept. One defines culture in terms of historically based values that differ across groups and with which people identify. Another definition describes culture as the cumulative deposit of knowledge, experience, beliefs, values, attitudes, meanings, hierarchies, religion, notions of time, roles, spatial relations, concepts of the universe, and material objects and possessions acquired by a group of people in the course of generations through individual and group striving. They also described Culture as symbolic communication, including symbols such as a group's skills, knowledge, attitudes, values, and motives. The meanings of these symbols are learned and deliberately perpetuated in a society through its institutions. A simpler yet comprehensive definition views culture as a way of life of a group of people—the behaviours, beliefs, values, and symbols that they accept, generally without thinking about them, and that are passed along by communication and imitation from one generation to the next. A more nuanced perspective sees culture as the entanglement of meaning, materiality, and social practice. This definition emphasizes that culture involves both production and consumption and that meanings are variable and often contested.

Cultural values play an important role in shaping economic development. Cultural values influence economic behaviour and development by shaping attitudes, values, and beliefs that guide individual and collective actions. For instance, cultural norms related to trust, respect, and individual self-determination can stimulate social and economic interaction, while obedience can limit economic interaction and development by decreasing risk-taking and entrepreneurship. Cultural values are seen as a foundation for institutional development. Institutions are the children of culture, meaning that cultural values shape the development of institutions, which then influence societal behaviour and economic outcomes. Empirical studies, such as those using datasets from the European Social Survey, have shown that cultural dimensions like hierarchy, affective autonomy, and mastery can hinder innovation and economic development, while embeddedness, egalitarianism, and harmony can promote it.

External cyber attacks can disrupt critical infrastructure, compromise national security, and damage public trust in institutions. Information warfare, such as the spread of disinformation, can create confusion, manipulate public opinion, and exacerbate social divisions.

In the digital age, cyber attacks and information warfare are powerful tools that external actors can use to destabilize a nation. Cyber attacks can target vital infrastructure such as power grids, financial systems, communication networks, and transportation systems. Disruptions in these areas can lead to widespread chaos, economic losses, and undermine public trust in the government's ability to provide essential services. Cyber attacks can compromise sensitive military or governmental data, potentially exposing vulnerabilities and enabling foreign adversaries to exploit them. This can weaken national defence capabilities and expose the country to greater risks. Information warfare involves the deliberate spread of disinformation, propaganda, or misleading narratives to influence public opinion, sow discord, or manipulate political outcomes. By polarizing public discourse or discrediting political leaders, external actors can weaken social cohesion and destabilize the political environment.

In 2016, Russian actors conducted cyber attacks and information warfare aimed at influencing the U.S. presidential election. They hacked into political party emails, spread disinformation through social media, and attempted to undermine public trust in the electoral process. These efforts contributed to political polarization, eroded trust in democratic institutions, and exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. electoral system.

Ben Buchanan argues that cyber attacks have become a normal part of geopolitics, using concepts like signalling and shaping to explain how states use cyber attacks to convey intentions and influence global outcomes. Buchanan argues that cyber-attacks are not primarily used for signalling, which involves deliberate acts or signals taken by states to communicate their intentions or capacities, affecting perceptions and forming expectations. Instead, he suggests that cyber capabilities are inherently unsuitable for signalling due to their opacity and difficulty attributing attacks to specific actors. He advocates for a conceptual framework grounded in shaping, which involves intentional attempts to alter the international system's dynamics, norms, or structure to bring about outcomes that support one’s strategic goals or interests. Cyber operations are seen as tools for shaping geopolitics by influencing global outcomes through espionage, attacks, and destabilization.

Buchanan contends that cyber attacks have become tools for policymakers' signalling and shaping operations. Cyber attacks have transformed spycraft and statecraft, making them an integral part of modern geopolitics. These attacks are less destructive than anticipated but more pervasive and harder to prevent, impacting various aspects of modern society, including banks, tech and health systems, and democracy. Cyber attacks represent a new form of real geopolitical competition, where the nation that hacks best will triumph. This perspective shifts the focus from traditional warfare to the strategic logic behind cyber operations, emphasizing their role in shaping global dynamics.

Richard A. Clarke and Robert K. Knake emphasize that cyberspace is not just a medium but a domain that needs to be defended and managed like any other domain. This includes understanding its unique characteristics and the threats it poses. The term 'fifth domain' is used to highlight the importance of cyberspace in modern warfare and national security. It underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to defending against cyber threats, which can have significant real-world consequences. Clarke and Knake advocate for a strategic defence approach that focuses on resilience and deterrence. This involves building systems that can resist most attacks and raising the costs on cyber criminals and state actors.

Clarke and Knake advocate recommend several diplomatic engagement strategies to reduce cyber tensions. They advocate for building partnerships with other countries to address global cyber threats collectively. This approach aims to create a collaborative environment where nations work together to enhance cybersecurity and reduce the likelihood of cyber conflicts. Clarke and Knake suggest using diplomatic channels to voice concerns about malicious cyber activities to foreign governments. If these governments are not forthcoming, more coercive diplomatic measures can be employed to stem malicious cyber activities. They emphasize the importance of international partnerships, particularly in sharing technical information on cyber attacks. This includes building partnerships with foreign militaries and engaging in military-to-military relations to enhance cyber cooperation.

Clarke and Knake stress that the threat of cyber attacks is real and imminent, with significant consequences for national security, economic stability, and individual safety. They highlight various high-profile cyberattacks, such as Stuxnet and WannaCry, which have demonstrated the potential for cyber threats to disrupt critical infrastructure and cause widespread damage. They emphasize that securing cyberspace is not hopeless but requires a concerted effort from all stakeholders. They argue that what is missing is national consensus, will, and priority-setting. This means that policymakers must work together across party lines and prioritize cybersecurity as a critical national security issue.

We will next to navigate the intricate landscape of economic dependency and environmental pressures, where the relentless pursuit of growth often comes at the cost of increased resource extraction and consumption, exacerbating environmental degradation. Biidhnillah."

Amidst this complex backdrop, Cattleya then reads a poem that serves as a reminder of the human experience,

External voices whisper, challenging the way,

Ideologies clash, and the social fabric sway.

In the digital age, cyber shadows creep,

Information warfare, a destabilizing sleep.

Citations & References:

- Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, 1991, University of Oklahoma Press

- Samuel P. Huntington, Who Are We?: The Challenges to America's National Identity, 2005, Simon & Schuster

- Lawrence E. Harrison & Samuel P. Huntington (Eds.), Culture Matters: How Values Shape Human Progress, 2000, Basic Books

- Ben Buchanan, The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics, 2020, Harvard University Press

- Richard A. Clarke & Robert K. Knake, The Fifth Domain: Defending Our Country, Our Companies, and Ourselves in the Age of Cyber Threats, 2019, Penguin Press

[Session 14]

[Session 12]

Bahasa

When Cattleya Talked (12)

"In the land where shadows dance and stories come to life, there lived Kunti, an elder, and a young girl, Srikandi. One sunny afternoon, as the golden rays filtered through the ancient trees, Kunti and Srikandi sat by the riverbank, their reflections shimmering in the water.

'Bunda,' began Srikandi, 'why is it that trust is so important, yet so fragile?'

Kunti thought for a moment and said. 'Ah, my pretty girl, trust is like this river. It flows smoothly when nurtured but can become turbulent when disturbed.'

Srikandi, always eager for a story, leaned in closer. 'Tell me more, Bunda.'

Kunti smiled and began her tale. 'Once upon a time, in a village not far from here, there were two friends, Trust and Distrust. Trust was beloved by all, for she brought harmony and joy wherever she went. People would share their secrets with her, knowing she would keep them safe.'

'But Distrust,' Kunti continued, 'was a different story. She was always lurking in the shadows, whispering doubts into people’s ears. ‘Can you trust your neighbour?’ she would say. ‘What if they betray you?’

Srikandi chuckled. 'Distrust sounds like a troublemaker!'

'Indeed,' Kunti nodded. 'One day, Distrust decided to play a trick on the villagers. She persuaded the village chief stole everyone’s crops. Then panic ensued, and the villagers began to hide their harvests and lock their doors.”

'And what happened then?' Srikandi asked, eyes wide with anticipation.

'The village fell into discontent,' Kunti said with a sigh. 'Neighbors stopped talking to each other, friends became foes, and the once vibrant community turned into a place of suspicion and fear. Distrust had sown the seeds of discontent, and the harvest was bitter.'

Srikandi shook her head. 'That’s terrible! How did they fix it?'

'Ah,' Kunti’s eyes twinkled. 'It took a lot of effort. They finally learned that trust showed them that while distrust can bring discontent, trust can restore harmony.'

Srikandi smiled. 'I see now, Bunda. Trust is like the glue that holds us together, while distrust is the wedge that drives us apart.'

'Exactly, my young one,' Kunti said, patting Srikandi on the shoulder. 'Remember this lesson well, for in the dance of life, trust can bring you genuine effort and support and will always lead to a more beautiful performance.'"

"Now let's go on," said Cattleya. "External pressures can weaken a nation by creating stress, instability, and vulnerability in various aspects of the country's structure and functioning. External pressures refer to influences, actions, or forces originating from outside a nation that can negatively impact its stability, security, or overall strength. These pressures can come from other countries, international organizations, non-state actors, or global trends and can manifest in various forms, such as economic, political, military, cultural, or environmental challenges.

The goal of these external pressures, whether intentional or not, is often to influence the nation's policies, behaviour, or structure in a way that aligns with the interests of external actors, or to destabilize the nation for strategic advantage. External pressures can exploit existing vulnerabilities within a country, exacerbate internal conflicts, or create new challenges that the nation may struggle to manage effectively. External pressures are often part of broader geopolitical strategies where nations or groups seek to advance their interests by influencing or destabilizing other countries.

When other countries impose economic sanctions or trade restrictions, it can lead to financial strain, reduced access to essential goods, and economic downturns. This can weaken a nation's economy, leading to unemployment, inflation, and social unrest. Economic sanctions are punitive measures imposed by one or more countries to pressure a nation into changing a particular behaviour or policy. These can include trade embargoes, freezing of assets, and restrictions on financial transactions. Sanctions can lead to a severe economic downturn by limiting a nation's ability to export goods, access foreign capital, and participate in international financial systems. This can cause inflation, currency devaluation, and a decline in living standards. As economic conditions worsen, unemployment may rise, and the public may experience shortages of essential goods, leading to widespread dissatisfaction. This can fuel protests, strikes, and other forms of social unrest. Prolonged sanctions can lead to the deterioration of industries, reduced foreign investment, and a brain drain as skilled workers seek opportunities elsewhere. Over time, this can diminish a nation's economic resilience and global competitiveness.

Iran has faced economic sanctions from the United States and other countries over its nuclear program. These sanctions have severely impacted Iran's economy, leading to a sharp decline in oil exports, inflation, and a devaluation of the Iranian rial. The resulting economic hardship has fueled social unrest and protests, weakening the government's authority and stability.

Diplomatic isolation or strained relations with other nations can reduce a country's influence on the global stage, limit its access to international support, and hinder its ability to negotiate favourable terms in international agreements. This can leave the nation vulnerable to external threats. Diplomatic isolation occurs when a country is marginalized or excluded from international organizations, alliances, or diplomatic relations. When a nation is diplomatically isolated, it loses its ability to shape international policies and protect its interests on the global stage. This can lead to unfavourable outcomes in international negotiations, such as trade deals, security arrangements, or environmental agreements. Diplomatic isolation reduces a country's access to international aid, support, and cooperation. In times of crisis, such as natural disasters or armed conflict, the lack of international support can exacerbate the situation and hinder recovery efforts. Isolated nations may struggle to form alliances or coalitions to defend against external threats. This can make them more vulnerable to aggression or interference by other powers.

North Korea is one of the most diplomatically isolated countries in the world due to its nuclear weapons program and human rights abuses. This isolation has limited its ability to engage in international trade, receive foreign aid, or participate in global institutions. The lack of diplomatic ties and economic partnerships has left North Korea dependent on a few allies, like China, and has contributed to the country's economic stagnation and political vulnerability.

External military threats, whether in the form of direct aggression or proxy conflicts, can drain a nation's resources, destabilize its borders, and lead to loss of life and infrastructure. Prolonged conflicts can weaken national unity and undermine the government's ability to maintain control. Military threats, whether direct or indirect, can have profound effects on a nation's stability and security. Preparing for or engaging in military conflicts requires significant financial and human resources. Prolonged conflicts can drain the national treasury, disrupt economic activities, and result in the loss of lives and infrastructure. Conflicts, especially those involving foreign powers or proxy wars, can destabilize regions, displace populations, and create power vacuums. This can lead to ongoing instability, as rival factions or foreign powers vie for control. Military conflicts can also strain national unity, particularly if they are unpopular or if there are divisions within the population over the legitimacy of the war. Internal dissent can weaken the government's ability to maintain control and respond effectively to the conflict.

Ukraine has faced significant military threats since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The war has led to the loss of territory, displacement of millions of people, and significant economic costs. The conflict has strained Ukraine's resources, destabilized its political environment, and weakened national unity, making it more difficult for the government to implement reforms and rebuild the economy.

Robert A. Pape presents his concept of military coercion which he defines as efforts to change the behavior of a state by manipulating costs and benefits through concrete or potential means of force. This definition emphasises that coercion involves altering an adversary's posture by manipulating costs and benefits, which can include the threat of violence. The demarcation of his object within the universe of coercion occurs through the addition of a means of action—violence. Military coercion thus consists of efforts to alter an adversary's posture by employing concrete or potential means of force. Military coercion does not take place in a vacuum but within the political context of a conflict of wills. Pape restricts his study to cases where the target is asked to give up important interests.

Pape presents military coercion as a distinct entity within the phenomenon of war, separate from the act of war. A successful act of military coercion is one capable of extracting a desired concession from an adversary who possesses the means to resist. The potential for threatened violence that produces concrete results is considered the purest form of coercion. This approach emphasizes that coercion can occur without an actual 'act of violence,' but with violence held in reserve and used as a threat.

A successful act of military coercion extracts a desired concession from an adversary, even if they have the means to resist. In contrast, traditional military strategies often aim for outright victory or complete defeat. Pape advocates for a denial strategy, which involves targeting an adversary's military strategy to prevent them from achieving their objectives. This approach is more effective than punishment strategies, which target civilians or leaders and often backfire by increasing the adversary's resolve.

Pape critiques the conventional wisdom on strategic bombing, suggesting that it often backfires by increasing the resilience and loyalty of the civilian population. He argues that strategic bombing rarely leads to decisive results and that its effectiveness is often measured by the timing of an adversary's capitulation. Pape advocates for integrating air and land power in a 'hammer and anvil' fashion. He believes that synchronized air, land, and sea campaigns are more likely to lead to decisive victories than relying solely on air power. Pape rejects decapitation and punishment strategies as ineffective. Decapitation involves targeting key leadership, which he argues is often unsuccessful, while punishment involves imposing costs on the civilian population, which he considers immoral and ineffective.

Pape discusses various theories of air power, including denial (interdiction to weaken enemy forces), risk (gradually increasing the effects of bombing), punishment (inflicting pain on civilians), and decapitation (strikes against key leadership). Pape's work helps policymakers understand the limitations and potential of air power in achieving strategic objectives. It also challenges common misconceptions about the effectiveness of strategic bombing and highlights the importance of considering the broader strategic context in which air power is employed.

Mohamed ElBaradei delves into the complexities of nuclear proliferation, focusing on countries like Iraq, North Korea, and Iran. ElBaradei discusses the challenges of monitoring and controlling nuclear programs, as well as the efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. He emphasizes that national security is tied to individual security. He argues that disarmament is crucial but also highlights the need for a universal commitment to human dignity, democratic values, and freedom from want. He critiques double standards in international relations, particularly in how different countries are treated regarding their nuclear programs. ElBaradei argues for a more equitable and consistent approach to global security.

ElBaradei argues that nuclear weapons should be delegitimized. This involves developing alternative systems of security that do not rely on nuclear deterrence. He also emphasizes the need to provide inclusive security measures where countries do not feel threatened and thus do not need to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrent. He underscores that the security of nations is tied to the security of individuals. He advocates for a universal commitment to human dignity, democratic values, and freedom from want. This approach is crucial for reducing the drivers of nuclear proliferation, such as instability, insecurity, and economic and social disparities.

The use of nuclear weapons would cause immense and long-lasting harm, including widespread destruction, radiation poisoning, and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment and human health. Most research agrees that detonating an atomic weapon is inherently immoral due to these catastrophic effects. Nuclear deterrence involves putting the lives of innocent civilians at risk, which is morally problematic. The threat of nuclear retaliation can lead to a situation where civilians are caught in the crossfire, making deterrence morally unacceptable.

The use of nuclear technology raises questions about public acceptance and responsibility. It is argued that technological processes should be subject to constant public scrutiny and discussion to ensure they serve human values and not override them. The ethical alternative to nuclear deterrence is often seen as bilateral disarmament, where both nations agree to retreat from nuclear arms. This approach aims to reduce the risk of nuclear war and promote international cooperation.

Cynthia C. Kelly presents a compilation of insights and historical accounts related to J. Robert Oppenheimer's role in the Manhattan Project. J. Robert Oppenheimer made several crucial contributions to the Manhattan Project, which was a pivotal effort during World War II aimed at developing the first atomic bomb. He was appointed as the scientific director of the Manhattan Project in 1942. Oppenheimer assembled an exceptional team of scientists, including Enrico Fermi and Richard Feynman, to work collaboratively on the project. The culmination of their efforts was the successful Trinity nuclear test in July 1945, which marked the first detonation of an atomic bomb. He chose the plateau of Los Alamos, near Santa Fe, New Mexico, as the site for the laboratory where the project was conducted. The creation of the atomic bomb, under Oppenheimer’s leadership, transformed the global geopolitical landscape. It ended World War II but also marked the beginning of the Cold War, redefining international relations and establishing a climate of deterrence.

After the war, Oppenheimer became a vocal advocate for international nuclear arms control. His advocacy was part of the post-war debates about the use and regulation of nuclear technology, though it was also marred by controversies and accusations of disloyalty. Oppenheimer felt a deep sense of guilt about the creation of the atomic bomb. He often referred to the legend of Prometheus, reflecting his recognition of the evil and the long knowledge of it that came with humanity's new powers. This guilt was not just about the use of the bomb during World War II but also about the ensuing arms race and the threat to civilization that it brought about. He vehemently opposed the development of the hydrogen bomb, which he believed was more destructive than mankind could responsibly control. This opposition put him in direct conflict with his Manhattan Project colleague Edward Teller, who was a strong proponent of the H-bomb. He personal moral code was complex and not dictated by a single religion or culture. He sought absolution for his past guilt through various religious texts, including Hinduism, and was deeply conflicted about the impact of his work. This inner moral conflict persisted until his death, as he grappled with the question of whether the bomb would bring life through nuclear power or destruction. These conflicts highlight the ethical and political dilemmas that Oppenheimer faced, both during and after his involvement in the Manhattan Project. His personal beliefs about democracy, ethics, and the responsible use of scientific knowledge often clashed with the realities of the time, leading to significant personal and professional challenges.

Robert D. Blackwill and Jennifer M. Harris highlight the strategic integration of economic tools into foreign policy, emphasizing the importance of leveraging economic power to achieve geopolitical objectives. Blackwill and Harris describe that the use of economic instruments includes a variety of tools such as trade policy, investment policy, economic and financial sanctions, cyber, financial, and monetary policy, and energy and commodities as 'geoeconomics.' They define 'geoeconomics' as the use of economic instruments to promote and defend national interests and to produce beneficial geopolitical results. This definition encompasses the effects of other nations' economic actions on a country's geopolitical goals as well. Geoeconomics aims to advance a nation's strategic objectives through economic means, rather than solely relying on military force. The ultimate goal is to achieve geopolitical outcomes that benefit the nation using these economic instruments.

Blackwill and Harris argue that the United States has historically relied too heavily on military force rather than economic tools to advance its interests abroad. This neglect has led to a disadvantage for the U.S. in geopolitical competitions, particularly against rising powers like China and Russia. They recommend using the U.S. position as an 'energy superpower' to help allies and secure key trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to counterbalance Chinese and Russian geoeconomic policies. They contend that if U.S. policies remain unchanged, the country will increasingly rely on military force to protect its interests, which could come at a high cost in blood and treasure.

Blackwill and Harris highlight the increasing use of economic instruments in foreign policy, which is a dominant trend in modern geopolitics. Nations are leveraging economic tools to achieve geopolitical goals, including trade policies, sanctions, and energy manipulation, as seen in the actions of China and Russia. They emphasize the need for the U.S. to adapt its foreign policy to include more vigorous use of economic and financial instruments. This is crucial as other nations, especially illiberal states, are employing geoeconomic strategies to their advantage.

By not leveraging economic instruments, the U.S. risks losing ground as a world power. Rising nations like China and Russia are increasingly using geoeconomic means to undermine American influence and advance their interests. The U.S. might be forced to rely more heavily on military force to protect its interests, which could come at a high cost in blood and treasure. This overreliance could lead to a higher risk of military conflicts and greater financial burdens. Without a robust geoeconomic strategy, the U.S. becomes more vulnerable to economic coercion from other nations. This could include trade restrictions, sanctions, and other economic measures that could significantly impact the U.S. economy.

By not integrating economic instruments into its foreign policy, the U.S. misses opportunities to achieve strategic objectives through economic means. This could lead to missed diplomatic and economic opportunities that could have been leveraged to advance U.S. interests. The global geoeconomic playing field is tilting against the U.S. due to the increasing use of economic instruments by other nations. This shift could result in the U.S. being at a disadvantage in international economic and security competitions. The U.S. may struggle to effectively counter the geoeconomic strategies employed by rising powers like China and Russia. This could lead to a decline in U.S. influence and power relative to these nations. Neglecting geoeconomics for the U.S. can lead to a loss of global influence, increased military dependence, economic vulnerability, missed strategic opportunities, a tilting geoeconomic playing field, inadequate response to rising powers, and negative economic consequences.

Blackwill and Harris emphasize the importance of leveraging economic instruments to influence adversaries and achieve strategic objectives. They argue that economic measures can be powerful instruments of influence, capable of shaping international outcomes without necessarily resorting to military force. However, they do not advocate for the complete abandonment of military force; rather, they suggest that policymakers should consider a more comprehensive approach that includes economic statecraft alongside traditional military tools.

The use of economic tools does not necessarily mean abandoning military force. Instead, it suggests a more nuanced approach that includes a broader range of instruments to achieve strategic objectives. Economic measures can be powerful tools for shaping international outcomes without necessarily resorting to military force.

David A. Baldwin highlights the importance of economic statecraft as a powerful tool in foreign policy, capable of influencing international relations in complex and multifaceted ways. Statecraft refers to the art and practice of conducting state affairs, encompassing various techniques and strategies used by governments to achieve their foreign policy goals. It involves the skilful use of power and influence to manage international relations, often integrating multiple disciplines such as economics, politics, psychology, philosophy, history, law, and sociology. Statecraft has been practised throughout history, with notable examples including ancient Athens' trade boycotts and modern-day sanctions.

David A. Baldwin differentiates economic statecraft from other forms of statecraft by defining it as 'governmental influence attempts relying primarily on resources that have a reasonable semblance of a market price in terms of money'. This broad definition encompasses various economic tools used to influence other international actors, including foreign aid, trade policies, and sanctions. Economic statecraft relies on resources that have a market price, such as money, trade, and capital flows. Baldwin defines economic statecraft as influence attempts, which means that the desired outcomes are not necessarily limited to economic terms but can include broader strategic and political impacts. He divides economic statecraft into two broad categories: negative sanctions (actual or threatened punishments) and positive sanctions (actual or promised rewards). Baldwin challenges the conventional view that economic tools of foreign policy do not work, arguing that their utility has been systematically underestimated due to inadequacies in analytical frameworks.

Baldwin argues that the utility of economic techniques of statecraft has been systematically underestimated. This is because traditional analytical frameworks have inadequacies that lead to incorrect estimates of their effectiveness. He defines economic statecraft broadly includes not only economic means but also broader influence attempts aimed at shaping the behaviour of other states. The desired results of economic statecraft are not necessarily limited to economic terms. Instead, they are conceptualized as 'influence attempts,' which means they try to influence the behaviour of other states in any way, economic or otherwise.

Economic statecraft is a means by which nations can exert influence over other states. By using economic tools such as foreign aid, trade policies, and sanctions, nations can shape the behaviour of other states and thereby influence their national power. Economic statecraft is often used in bargaining processes. Nations use economic means to negotiate with other states, which can lead to changes in national power dynamics. For example, offering foreign aid or imposing sanctions can be used to influence the behaviour of other states. Foreign trade and foreign aid are significant tools in economic statecraft. These tools can be used to strengthen or weaken a nation's position in international relations, thereby affecting its national power.

Baldwin also discusses the morality and legality of economic statecraft. He argues that while economic sanctions and rewards can have significant impacts on national power, they must be used ethically and legally to avoid unintended consequences. The legality of unilateral economic sanctions is a subject of much debate and differing opinions within the field of international law. Economic sanctions can have significant humanitarian costs, including malnutrition, lack of emergency medical care, and deprivation of necessities for survival. They can also lead to greater harm for vulnerable populations such as infants, the elderly, and the sick. Despite their inefficacy in changing behaviour, economic sanctions serve a symbolic function. They signal what is and is not acceptable ethical behaviour, helping to construct new norms of belief and behaviour over time. This symbolic function is crucial for ethical acts and symbols in shaping normative practices.

The use of economic sanctions raises ethical dilemmas due to the potential for significant civilian harm. Measures taken to minimize civilian harm are often inconsistent with the nature of economic sanctions, which inherently involve economic damage that can be devastating to the civilian population. The morality of economic statecraft intersects with its legality. While some argue that states have inherent economic freedom to alter their relations, including imposing sanctions, others contend that coercive measures are unlawful. The morality of sanctions is often debated in terms of their impact on innocent civilians and the predictability of outcomes.

We continue to discuss external pressures, which encompass cultural and ideological influence, cyber attacks, information warfare, economic dependency, and environmental pressures. Biidhinillah."

Afterwards, Cattleya sang Sting's Russian,

How can I save my little boy from Oppenheimer's deadly toy?

There is no monopoly on common sense

On either side of the political fence

We share the same biology, regardless of ideology

Citations & References:

- Robert D. Blackwill and Jennifer M. Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, 2016, Belknap Press

- Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War, 1996, Cornell University Press

- Mohamed ElBaradei, The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times, 2011, Bloomsbury Publishing

- Cynthia C. Kelly (Ed.), Oppenheimer and the Manhattan Project, 2006, World Scientific Publishing

- David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, 2020, Princeton University Press

[Session 13]

[Session 11]

Bahasa