"In a land where democracy was once as sturdy as a teak tree, the House of Representatives decided it was time for a little gardening. They thought, 'Why not prune the branches of the Constitutional Court? After all, who needs checks and balances when you can have unchecked power?'As the day wore on, the hashtag #PeringatanDarurat trended on social media, with the national emblem against a blue background becoming the symbol of the movement. Memes and satirical posts flooded the internet, driven by the people’s dissatisfaction with the regime and disappointment with the political cartel. One particularly popular image showed a representative trying to use a garden hose to put out a forest fire, capturing the absurdity of the government’s attempts to quell the growing unrest with superficial measures. Another meme depicted politicians as gardeners, desperately trying to trim the 'weeds' of dissent while ignoring the forest of corruption and incompetence behind them.On August 22, 2024, the citizens of Jakarta, armed with nothing but their voices and a deep love for democracy, gathered outside the House of Representatives. They were greeted by a fence that seemed to say, 'You shall not pass!' But the fence underestimated the determination of the people. With a collective push, they breached the barrier, proving that even the strongest fences are no match for the will of the people.Inside, the representatives were busy debating the best way to ignore the Constitutional Court’s rulings. 'Maybe if we just pretend they don’t exist, they’ll go away,' one suggested. Another chimed in, 'Or we could rewrite the laws to suit our needs. Who’s going to stop us?'Meanwhile, outside, the protesters were met with water cannons. “Ah, a refreshing shower,” they thought, as they stood their ground. The government’s attempt to douse the flames of dissent only fueled the fire of resistance.The situation can indeed be seen as a reflection of the growing 'social unrest' among the people. Public trust in the government had been eroding for some time, driven by concerns over corruption, economic challenges, and perceived attempts to undermine democratic institutions. “The Resistance of Jakarta 2024” was the tipping point, a day when the people of Indonesia stood up for their democracy, proving that no fence, no matter how high, can contain the spirit of a determined populace. Similar protests occurred in multiple cities across Indonesia. Besides Jakarta, demonstrations were reported in Yogyakarta, Semarang, Makassar, Bandung, Surabaya, Padang, Surakarta, Malang, Tasikmalaya, Jambi, Bandar Lampung, Ambon, Bengkulu, Cirebon, Kendari, Palembang, Samarinda, Bekasi, Banjarmasin, Balikpapan, Palu, Gorontalo, Mataram, Kupang, Pekanbaru, and Banda Aceh. These widespread protests reflect the public discontent and unrest regarding the government’s actions and perceived attempts to undermine democratic processes.As the protests continued, the crowd began to sing 'Uprising' by Muse, their voices rising in unison: 'They will not force us. They will stop degrading us. They will not control us. We will be victorious.' The song—in a metaphorical sense—became an anthem of their resistance, echoing through the streets and symbolizing their unwavering determination to reclaim their democracy.""Now, let's proceed to our topic," said Cattleya. "Demographic challenges are significant factors for a nation because they directly influence various aspects of a country's social, economic, and political landscape. Demographic challenges refer to the difficulties or issues that arise due to changes in the population structure of a country or region. These challenges can stem from various demographic trends, including shifts in age distribution, population growth or decline, migration patterns, birth and death rates, and changes in family structures. These factors can significantly impact a nation’s economy, social systems, political stability, and overall development.An increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the population impacts strains on pension systems, healthcare services, and a shrinking workforce. A large and rapidly growing young population will cause pressure on education systems, job markets, and the potential for social unrest if opportunities are lacking. A decreasing population size due to low birth rates and high emigration affects labour shortages, economic stagnation, and challenges in maintaining public services. Rapid migration from rural to urban areas burdens overcrowding in cities, strain on infrastructure, and the need for sustainable urban development. Large-scale immigration and the integration of immigrants into society will raise social and cultural tensions, pressure on public services, and challenges in maintaining social cohesion. A significant disparity in the male-to-female ratio within a population causes social instability, changes in family structures, and potential increases in crime or violence. Shifts in family dynamics, such as declining marriage rates, increasing divorce rates, or smaller family sizes marks the changes in housing needs, social services, and support systems for children and the elderly.Demographic challenges are crucial because they directly influence the future development of a country. Addressing these challenges requires strategic planning and policies that consider long-term population trends. Failure to do so can lead to economic decline, social unrest, and weakened political institutions. On the other hand, effectively managing demographic challenges can result in a more resilient, prosperous, and sustainable society.The size and age distribution of a population determine the available labour force. An ageing population can lead to a shrinking workforce, potentially slowing economic growth and increasing the burden on social security systems. The composition of a nation's population in terms of age and employment directly affects its economic potential. A large working-age population (typically aged 15-64) can contribute to economic growth through productivity and innovation. However, if a significant portion of the population is elderly (65+), this can lead to a higher dependency ratio, where fewer workers are supporting more retirees. This can strain pension systems, reduce savings, and increase government spending on social services. Japan is an example of a country facing challenges due to an ageing population. With one of the highest proportions of elderly citizens in the world, Japan has a shrinking workforce, leading to slower economic growth and increasing pressure on the pension and healthcare systems.A younger population may drive economic productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship, whereas an older population might lead to a higher dependency ratio, where fewer working-age individuals support more retirees. Younger populations tend to be more dynamic, adaptable, and technologically savvy, driving economic growth. On the other hand, an older population might have a wealth of experience but may not be as quick to adapt to new technologies or trends, potentially slowing productivity growth. India has a relatively young population, which has contributed to its rapid economic growth in recent decades. The large, young workforce has been a driving force behind India's growing tech industry and its status as a major player in the global economy.Governments need to adapt policies to demographic changes, such as pension reform, healthcare funding, and immigration policies. Failure to address these changes can lead to political unrest and social dissatisfaction. Demographic changes necessitate shifts in government policies. For instance, an ageing population might require pension reforms to ensure that the social security system remains sustainable. Healthcare funding might need to be increased to accommodate the growing demand. Failure to adapt policies to demographic realities can lead to public dissatisfaction and political unrest, as citizens might feel that their needs are not being met. France has had to adapt its pension system multiple times due to demographic changes. Recent reforms aimed at raising the retirement age have sparked widespread protests, highlighting the tension between demographic realities and public expectations.Demographic shifts can affect political representation and influence. For example, regions with younger populations may demand different policies compared to areas with older demographics. Demographic shifts can alter the political landscape. For example, if urban areas grow due to internal migration, they may gain more political representation, influencing national policy priorities. In contrast, rural areas with declining populations might lose political influence, leading to tensions between different regions or demographics within the country. The United States has seen shifts in political representation due to demographic changes. For instance, states like Texas and Florida have gained political influence in recent elections due to population growth, while states in the Midwest have seen a decline in political power, affecting national policy debates.Immigration can alter the demographic makeup of a nation, leading to challenges in integrating new populations and maintaining cultural identity. The balance between preserving national identity and embracing multiculturalism is often a point of contention. Immigration can significantly change the demographic makeup of a nation. While immigration can bring economic benefits, such as filling labour shortages, it can also lead to challenges in integrating new populations into the existing social fabric. Issues such as cultural assimilation, language barriers, and social cohesion become important. If not managed well, these challenges can lead to social divisions and tensions. Sweden has experienced significant immigration in recent years, leading to challenges in integrating new arrivals into the existing social fabric. This has sparked debates over national identity, multiculturalism, and the role of immigrants in society.Changes in demographics can impact language use and the preservation of cultural heritage, especially in regions where the native population is declining. Demographic changes can affect the use and preservation of languages and cultural heritage. For example, if younger generations are more inclined to adopt global languages like English over their native tongues, this could lead to the erosion of linguistic diversity. Similarly, cultural practices and traditions might be at risk if they are not passed down to younger generations, leading to a loss of cultural identity over time. Wales in the UK has seen efforts to preserve the Welsh language in the face of declining native speakers. The government has implemented policies to promote the use of Welsh in schools and public life to maintain linguistic and cultural heritage.Rapid population growth can strain resources such as food, water, and housing, leading to potential conflicts over resource allocation. Rapid population growth can place significant pressure on natural resources like water, food, and energy. If the demand exceeds the supply, it can lead to conflicts over resource allocation, both within and between nations. Overpopulation in urban areas can also result in overcrowding, poor living conditions, and increased crime rates, all of which can undermine national security. Egypt faces significant pressure from rapid population growth, which has strained resources such as water and arable land. The scarcity of resources, particularly water from the Nile, has the potential to cause internal instability and tensions with neighbouring countries like Ethiopia.The demographic composition also affects military recruitment. Nations with a younger population may have a larger pool of potential recruits while ageing populations might struggle to maintain sufficient military forces. A nation’s ability to maintain a strong military is partly dependent on the demographic composition of its population. Countries with a large and youthful population have a bigger pool from which to recruit soldiers. In contrast, nations with ageing populations may struggle to find enough recruits, potentially weakening their defence capabilities. Russia has faced challenges in maintaining a robust military due to its declining population, particularly in rural areas. The government has implemented various incentives to encourage military service, but the shrinking pool of young, fit recruits remains a concern for national security.Nations with large and growing populations often have more influence in global affairs due to their market size, workforce, and innovation potential. Countries with large and growing populations, such as China and India, often have significant global influence due to their economic potential and large consumer markets. Their demographic size gives them leverage in international negotiations, trade agreements, and geopolitical matters. These countries can also drive global trends in technology, culture, and economics. China's large population has been a key factor in its global influence, particularly in trade and manufacturing. The sheer size of its domestic market makes China a crucial player in international trade negotiations and global economic trends.Demographic pressures, such as overpopulation or ageing, can drive migration flows, influencing global politics, and bilateral relations. Demographic challenges, such as overpopulation or aging, can lead to increased migration. Countries experiencing population decline might encourage immigration to replenish their workforce, while countries facing overpopulation might see significant emigration. These migration patterns can affect global politics, as they may lead to changes in bilateral relations, cultural exchanges, and even geopolitical strategies. Mexico and Central American countries have seen significant emigration to the United States due to economic and demographic pressures. This migration has had profound effects on US immigration policy, border security, and bilateral relations between the US and Latin American nations.The following are some additional countries that are significantly impacted by demographic challenges. Italy has been experiencing ageing population and low birth rates. Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world and one of the lowest birth rates. This has led to a shrinking workforce, economic stagnation, and increasing pressure on the pension and healthcare systems. The country struggles to sustain economic growth and maintain its social welfare programs due to the growing number of retirees compared to the working-age population.Russia has been experiencing population decline and an ageing population. Russia faces a declining population due to low birth rates, high mortality rates, and emigration. The country’s demographic decline threatens its long-term economic and military strength. Additionally, the ageing population places a burden on social services, and regions with significant population loss face economic and social challenges, such as declining local economies and depopulation of rural areas.South Korea has extremely low birth rates and an ageing population. South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates globally, leading to a rapidly ageing population. This demographic shift is expected to cause a significant reduction in the working-age population, putting pressure on economic growth and increasing the dependency ratio. The government faces challenges in reforming pension systems and adapting the labour market to the changing demographic structure.Spain is going through low birth rates and an ageing population. Similar to other Southern European countries, Spain faces the dual challenges of low birth rates and an ageing population. This has resulted in a shrinking labour force and increasing pressure on public pension and healthcare systems. The economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis has been slow, partly due to these demographic factors.Bulgaria witnesses population decline and emigration. Bulgaria is one of the fastest-shrinking countries in the world due to low birth rates, high death rates, and significant emigration, particularly among young people seeking better opportunities abroad. The population decline has led to labour shortages, economic stagnation, and challenges in maintaining public services and infrastructure in rural areas.Ukraine falls on population decline and ageing population. Ukraine has experienced a significant population decline due to low birth rates, high mortality rates, and emigration, particularly since the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The demographic decline poses serious challenges to the country's economic recovery, social stability, and ability to maintain a strong military.Japan is experiencing an extremely ageing population. Japan's demographic challenges are among the most severe globally, with a rapidly ageing population and one of the highest life expectancies. The shrinking working-age population has led to labour shortages, slow economic growth, and rising healthcare and pension costs. Japan's efforts to combat these issues include increasing the retirement age, encouraging female and elderly participation in the workforce, and promoting automation and AI to compensate for the labour shortfall.Portugal has low birth rates and an ageing population. Portugal faces a demographic crisis similar to other Southern European nations, with low birth rates and an increasing proportion of elderly citizens. The country has struggled with economic stagnation and depopulation, particularly in rural areas, leading to challenges in sustaining economic growth and providing adequate social services.Hungary sustains population decline and an ageing population. Hungary's population has been steadily declining due to low birth rates and emigration. The government has implemented various policies to encourage higher birth rates, such as offering financial incentives for families with multiple children. However, the demographic decline continues to pose a threat to the country’s long-term economic sustainability.Greece is challenged by low birth rates and economic migration Greece has faced significant demographic challenges, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. The economic downturn led to a wave of emigration, particularly among young people, further exacerbating the country’s low birth rates and ageing population. This demographic decline has hindered Greece’s economic recovery and placed additional pressure on its social welfare systems.Indonesia's demographic challenges often have several key concerns related to the country’s population trends, which have significant implications for its economic development, social stability, and environmental sustainability. Indonesia has a large and growing young population, often referred to as a 'youth bulge.' The country has not fully capitalized on this demographic dividend due to insufficient job creation, inadequate education, and skills mismatch. International assessments of student performance, such as the PISA rankings, often show that Indonesian students lag behind those in other countries, raising concerns about the future competitiveness of the workforce. Indonesia’s education system is not adequately preparing the young population for the challenges of the 21st-century economy. There is a concern that the quality of education is inconsistent, leading to a workforce that is not fully equipped to compete in the global economy.The concern is that if young people do not find meaningful employment, it could lead to increased social unrest, higher crime rates, and economic stagnation. High youth unemployment rates and underemployment in rural areas are frequently cited as evidence that the government’s policies have not effectively addressed the challenges of a growing young population.The statistic from BPS indicating that 9.89 million or 22.5% of Gen Z in Indonesia were unemployed as of August 2023 has risen significantly. This high unemployment rate among young people highlights systemic issues in the education and job market alignment, as well as the need for more effective government policies to address youth unemployment.Many foreign analysts point out that there is a significant mismatch between the skills that young people acquire through education and the demands of the job market. This gap is seen as a major barrier to employment for Gen Z. Experts warn that the high unemployment rate among young people could hinder Indonesia’s economic growth. With a large portion of the population not contributing to the economy, the country might struggle to achieve its long-term economic goals. There are concerns about the social implications of youth unemployment, including increased crime rates and social unrest. The frustration and lack of opportunities can lead to significant social challenges. Foreign critics emphasize the need for comprehensive policy reforms to address these issues. They suggest that the Indonesian government should focus on improving vocational training, aligning education with market needs, and creating more job opportunities for young people.Foreign critics have raised several concerns about the long-term consequences of high youth unemployment in Indonesia. They warn that prolonged high unemployment among young people could lead to economic stagnation. With a significant portion of the population not contributing to the economy, growth could slow down, affecting the country’s overall economic health. They warn that prolonged high unemployment among young people could lead to economic stagnation. With a significant portion of the population not contributing to the economy, growth could slow down, affecting the country’s overall economic health. There is a risk of a 'brain drain,' where talented young individuals might seek opportunities abroad, leading to a loss of skilled labour and innovation potential within Indonesia. Persistent unemployment can exacerbate economic inequalities, creating a divide between those who have access to opportunities and those who do not. This could lead to long-term social and economic disparities. High unemployment rates among youth can lead to social instability, including increased crime rates and social unrest. The frustration and lack of prospects can fuel discontent and potentially destabilize communities. The long-term effects on the current generation of young people could be profound, affecting their lifetime earnings, career progression, and overall quality of life. This generational impact could have ripple effects on future generations as well. Foreign critics emphasize the need for comprehensive and sustained efforts to address these issues, including reforms in education, job creation, and support for entrepreneurship. They also stress the importance of international cooperation and learning from best practices in other countries to effectively tackle youth unemployment.Rapid urbanization in Indonesia has led to significant challenges, including overcrowded cities, inadequate infrastructure, and environmental degradation. The government’s urban planning and infrastructure development have not kept pace with the population influx into urban areas, leading to slums, traffic congestion, and pollution. While Indonesia still has a relatively young population overall, critics warn that the country is not adequately preparing for an ageing population. With improvements in healthcare, life expectancy is rising, but the country lacks a robust social security system and adequate healthcare infrastructure for the elderly. Critics argue that without proper planning, Indonesia could face significant economic and social challenges as its population ages. The current pension system in Indonesia is seen as inadequate to support a large ageing population, and there are concerns about the sustainability of healthcare services as the elderly population grows.Critics point out significant regional disparities in population growth and economic development. While Java and other major islands are densely populated and urbanized, other regions, particularly in Eastern Indonesia, face depopulation and lack access to basic services. This imbalance leads to uneven economic development and social inequalities. Papua and other eastern provinces of Indonesia have lower population densities and face challenges in attracting investment and providing adequate public services, leading to slower economic growth compared to more developed regions like Java and Bali.Indonesia’s population growth and urbanization are linked to environmental challenges, including deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and pollution. Critics argue that the government has not done enough to balance development with environmental protection, leading to long-term risks for the country’s natural resources and ecosystems. The deforestation of large parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra for palm oil plantations has been driven by population pressures and economic growth, leading to habitat loss and contributing to climate change.Indonesia is a major importer of staple foods like rice and soybeans, and this reliance on imports could become a serious issue if global supply chains are disrupted or if domestic production does not improve. With a growing population, there are worries that the country’s agricultural productivity may not keep pace with population growth, leading to increased dependence on food imports and vulnerability to global market fluctuations.The wealth gap in Indonesia remains wide, with a small percentage of the population controlling a large share of the country’s wealth, while many in rural areas continue to live in poverty. Despite overall economic growth, Indonesia’s population dynamics contribute to persistent inequality and poverty. The benefits of economic growth have not been evenly distributed, with significant gaps between urban and rural populations and between different socioeconomic groups.These examples mentioned, highlight how diverse demographic challenges can weaken a nation’s economic, social, and political structures, requiring targeted policies and strategies to mitigate their effects and ensure long-term stability and growth.Demographic challenges have been recognized as one of the factors that can weaken a nation. Next, we will briefly review technological and military advancements. Falling behind in technological development, particularly in defence, can leave a nation vulnerable to more advanced adversaries. Additionally, the threat or use of nuclear weapons can devastate states and lead to their collapse.”Cattleya then expressed her concerns through a poignant poem,Ageing populations, youth in decline,The strain on resources and futures intertwine.Migration shifts, economies sway,Nations must adapt, and find a new way.
Citations & References:
- Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley & Steven W. Sinding (Eds.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, 2003, Oxford University Press
- John Ibbitson & Darrell Bricker, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, 2019, Crown Publishing
- Fred Pearce, The Coming Population Crash: And Our Planet's Surprising Future, 2010, Beacon Press
- George Magnus, The Age of Aging, 2009, John Wiley & Sons
