“In contrast to Batara Kuwera's subtle storytelling, Batara Ismaya is refreshingly candid in his narration. He boldly declared: ''In the year 2045, the world was abuzz with speculation about which country would reign supreme. Many eyes were on China, with its towering skyscrapers, high-speed trains, and robots that could cook a perfect Peking duck. But as the world soon discovered, being the strongest country wasn’t just about technology and economic might.China had invested heavily in its 'Panda Diplomacy' program, sending adorable pandas to zoos around the world to win hearts and minds. However, the pandas, being pandas, were more interested in eating bamboo and napping than in geopolitics. One day, a panda named Bao Bao, sent to the United Nations as a goodwill ambassador, fell asleep during a crucial meeting. The world leaders couldn’t help but chuckle, realizing that even the most powerful nation couldn’t control the whims of a sleepy panda.China’s Great Firewall, designed to control the internet within its borders, had become a source of national pride. But in 2045, it faced an unexpected challenge: a group of tech-savvy teenagers from Denmark managed to hack through the firewall using nothing but a vintage Game Boy and a rubber chicken. The Chinese government was left red-faced as memes of the incident spread faster than they could be censored.In an effort to showcase its cultural heritage, China hosted the World Hotpot Championship. Chefs from around the globe gathered to compete in making the best hotpot. However, things took a turn when a chef from Italy accidentally added too much chilli, causing the judges to breathe fire like dragons. The event was dubbed “The Great Hotpot Incident,” and while it didn’t exactly boost China’s global standing, it did make for some spicy headlines.China had ambitious plans to colonize Mars, but they faced stiff competition from a surprising contender: New Zealand. The Kiwis, known for their ingenuity, had developed a fleet of sheep-powered rockets. While China’s high-tech spacecraft struggled with technical glitches, New Zealand’s woolly astronauts were already planting flags and setting up sheep farms on the Red Planet. The world watched in amusement as the space race turned into a woolly affair.In a bid to win over the global youth, China organized the World Karaoke Championship. The event was a hit, with contestants from every corner of the globe belting out their favourite tunes. However, the competition took an unexpected turn when a contestant from Finland performed a heavy metal version of 'Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star,' complete with pyrotechnics. The judges were so impressed that they declared Finland the winner, leaving China to ponder the only guesstimate nature of global influence. Besides, would America and its allies let Beijing act up? Surely they wouldn't, right?And so, while China continued to be a major player just on the world balcony, it became clear that true global dominance was about more than just economic and military power. It was about winning and embracing the unfathomable and unpredicted, and sometimes, just having a good laugh,' Batara Ismaya added wrapping up the tale.""Now we will play a grand orchestra, where each nation is an instrument. Some instruments play louder and more prominently, while others provide subtle, yet essential harmonies. The conductor, representing international influence, guides the orchestra, ensuring that each instrument contributes to a harmonious and powerful symphony. A nation with strong international influence is like a leading instrument in this orchestra. It sets the tone, rhythm, and pace, inspiring others to follow its lead. This influence allows the nation to shape global policies, foster alliances, and drive collective progress. Without such influence, a nation might still play its part, but its impression on the overall symphony would be less pronounced.In this orchestra, international influence is the conductor’s baton, enabling a nation to orchestrate its vision on the world stage, ensuring its voice is heard and its presence felt. This is why international influence is a key component of a strong nation—it amplifies its role in the global symphony, making its contributions resonate far and wide," Seruni made an expression to add what we pronounced as a strong nation."International influence refers to the capacity of a country or an entity to affect the behaviour, policies, decisions, and actions of other countries or entities on the global stage. This influence can be exercised through various means, including political, economic, military, cultural, and diplomatic channels. It encompasses both the direct and indirect ways in which a country can shape international affairs, promote its interests, and contribute to the global order.A nation's ability to shape international policies, negotiate treaties, and participate in global decision-making is a hallmark of its strength. Strong nations often have significant diplomatic networks and can influence international organizations like the United Nations, World Bank, and World Trade Organization. This influence allows them to shape global norms, values, and standards, promoting stability and advancing their national interests.Another reason why international influence is considered a key characteristic of a strong nation is economic influence. Economic strength translates into international influence through trade, investment, and economic aid. An exellent nation with a large economy can affect global markets, set economic trends, and offer financial assistance to other countries. This economic leverage can be used to build alliances, secure favourable trade agreements, and exert pressure on other nations to align with its policies.Military power is also one of many factors. A robust military capability enables a nation to project power beyond its borders, protect its interests, and deter potential threats. Military strength, including the ability to participate in peacekeeping missions or lead coalitions, enhances a nation's influence in international security matters. A strong nation can also provide security guarantees to allies, thereby extending its influence through military partnerships.Cultural influence is another aspect. Cultural power, often referred to as 'soft power,' is another aspect of international influence. Strong nations with vibrant cultural industries—such as movies, music, literature, and sports—can shape global culture and public opinion. This cultural influence helps create a positive image, attract tourism, and spread values and ideologies.A forceful nation often has a wide network of allies and partners. These relationships are crucial for coalition-building and collective action on global issues, such as security, trade, and environmental protection. By leading alliances and partnerships, a strong nation can amplify its influence and ensure its interests are represented in international forums.Providing humanitarian aid and development assistance is a powerful tool for international influence. By helping other countries during crises or supporting long-term development projects, a powerful nation can build goodwill, foster stability, and promote its values. This kind of support can also create economic and political dependencies that enhance the donor nation's influence.Powerful nations often lead in creating and promoting global norms and ideas, such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Their educational institutions, think tanks, and intellectuals contribute to global discourse, shaping the way people think about critical issues. This intellectual leadership helps set the agenda and priorities in international relations.International influence reflects a nation's ability to shape global affairs, protect its interests, and contribute to the international community. It encompasses a blend of hard power (military and economic strength) and soft power (cultural and ideological appeal). Nations with substantial international influence can navigate the complex web of global politics, economy, and society, thus maintaining and enhancing their standing on the world stage.International influence is also crucial for a country's ability to protect its national interests, promote global stability, and play a leadership role in addressing global challenges. Countries with substantial international influence can shape the international order, set the rules of engagement in global affairs, and ensure their voice is heard in critical international decisions. This influence also contributes to a nation's prestige and soft power, enhancing its ability to attract allies, forge partnerships, and maintain a favourable global image.Hal Brands and Jeremi Suri explore the notable role that historical understanding plays in shaping contemporary statecraft and foreign policy. They argue that historical knowledge is crucial for policymakers to avoid past mistakes, understand long-term trends, and craft effective strategies. Brands and Suri discuss how leaders often use historical analogies to make sense of complex international situations. By comparing current events to past experiences, they can derive lessons and frameworks that help guide policy decisions. However, they caution that misapplying these analogies can lead to misguided policies, as different historical contexts can lead to different outcomes.Leaders use historical analogies, say Brands and Suri, as cognitive tools to interpret and navigate complex international situations. By drawing parallels between current events and historical precedents, they seek to gain insights, identify potential outcomes, and formulate appropriate policies. International affairs often involve a myriad of variables and uncertainties. Historical analogies help simplify these complexities by offering a familiar narrative framework. Leaders can use these analogies to distil intricate situations into more understandable stories, making it easier to communicate issues and decisions to the public and other stakeholders.Leaders look to history to identify lessons that can inform their decision-making. For example, a leader might recall a past conflict and its resolution strategies to guide current negotiations. They consider the strategies, successes, and failures of past actors in similar situations to avoid repeating mistakes and to emulate successful outcomes.Historical analogies are often used to justify policy choices by appealing to past events that resonate with the public or policymakers. For instance, invoking the analogy of the Munich Agreement of 1938, where appeasement failed to prevent World War II, leaders might argue against concessions to aggressive states. This analogy has been frequently used to justify firm stances against perceived threats.By comparing current situations with historical events, leaders attempt to predict potential outcomes. For example, a leader might compare the rise of a contemporary authoritarian state to the expansionist policies of past regimes, predicting similar patterns of aggression and the need for containment strategies.Analogies provide a way to frame international issues in a way that is accessible and persuasive. They help craft a narrative that aligns with a leader's policy goals and resonates with domestic or international audiences. For example, framing a foreign intervention as a 'new Marshall Plan' can invoke positive connotations of reconstruction and aid.In situations of high uncertainty, where information is incomplete or ambiguous, historical analogies provide a heuristic or rule of thumb. They offer a way to make sense of uncertain environments by drawing on past experiences that seem similar, providing a basis for decision-making when clear-cut answers are not available.Historical analogies can be used to build consensus among policymakers, allies, and the public. By referencing shared historical events, leaders can create a common understanding of the situation and the appropriate response. This shared historical framework can facilitate coordination and cooperation among stakeholders.While historical analogies can be valuable, they also carry risks. Analogies can oversimplify complex situations, ignoring important differences in context and detail. Different historical contexts can lead to different outcomes, and an analogy might not hold in a new situation. Leaders may selectively use historical analogies that confirm their pre-existing beliefs, leading to biased decision-making. Analogies can evoke strong emotions, sometimes clouding rational judgment and leading to disproportionate responses.Consider this: the term ‘Cold War Analogy’ is often employed to depict modern geopolitical tensions, like the U.S.-China dynamic, casting it as a fresh ideological battle. The U.S.-China relationship is one of the most momentous geopolitical rivalries in the contemporary world, marked by a complex interplay of cooperation, competition, and conflict across various domains. This relationship is often compared to past geopolitical rivalries, such as the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, due to its global implications and the strategic competition for influence.The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies, and their economic competition spans trade, technology, and investment. The U.S.-China trade relationship has been characterized by critical imbalances, leading to trade tensions. The U.S. has raised concerns about China's trade practices, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and market access restrictions. These issues have led to tariffs and other trade barriers, most notably during the trade war initiated in 2018.The race for technological supremacy is a critical aspect of the rivalry. The U.S. and China are competing in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), 5G telecommunications, and quantum computing. The U.S. has taken steps to limit China's access to advanced technologies, citing national security concerns, and has pressured allies to exclude Chinese companies like Huawei from critical infrastructure. There is competition over global investment and economic influence. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to expand its economic reach through infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and beyond. The U.S. has responded with initiatives to offer alternative investment opportunities to counter China's influence.The military dimension of the U.S.-China rivalry involves competition for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. China has been expanding its military presence in the South China Sea, building artificial islands and asserting territorial claims. This has led to tensions with neighbouring countries and concerns from the U.S. about freedom of navigation and regional stability. China has been modernizing its military capabilities, including developing advanced missile systems, naval power, and cyber warfare capabilities. The U.S. has responded by strengthening alliances and partnerships in the region, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with Japan, India, and Australia. The strategic competition also includes nuclear weapons and missile defence. The U.S. has expressed concerns about China's expanding nuclear arsenal and the lack of transparency in its nuclear policies.The U.S. and China represent different political systems and governance models, leading to ideological competition. The U.S. promotes liberal democracy and human rights, while China advocates for its model of state-led development and authoritarian governance. This ideological divide plays out in international forums and through diplomatic engagements. Both countries seek to shape global governance institutions to reflect their interests and values. The U.S. often emphasizes rule-based international order, while China promotes principles like non-interference in domestic affairs.The U.S. and China compete for influence in international diplomacy and soft power. Both countries engage in diplomatic efforts to build alliances and partnerships. The U.S. has a long-standing network of alliances, while China has been expanding its diplomatic footprint, particularly in the Global South. Cultural influence and public diplomacy are also areas of competition. The U.S. leverages its cultural exports, educational institutions, and global media. China promotes its culture through Confucius Institutes and state media and seeks to present an alternative narrative to Western media.The U.S.-China relationship considerably impacts global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and international security. Both countries play crucial roles in global efforts to combat climate change. While there is some cooperation, their rivalry can hinder multilateral efforts. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted tensions, with disputes over the origins of the virus and responses to the global health crisis.China’s rise has led to tensions with other major powers, particularly the United States. Increased dominance could exacerbate these tensions, potentially leading to conflicts that disrupt global stability and economic growth. There have been ongoing concerns about human rights issues in China, including the treatment of ethnic minorities and restrictions on freedom of speech.The Beijing Declaration, signed on July 23, 2024, is a significant agreement aimed at ending division and strengthening Palestinian national unity. Key points of the declaration include the formation of an interim national reconciliation government to govern both Gaza and the West Bank; Commitment to Palestinian unity and the establishment of an independent State of Palestine under relevant UN resolutions; Focus on the post-conflict reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. The agreement was facilitated by China and witnessed by envoys from several countries, including Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, and Turkey. Among the witnesses to the signing of the Beijing Declaration, several countries are considered allies of the United States, include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Turkey. These nations have various degrees of strategic, economic, and military partnerships with the United States.The involvement of these countries in witnessing the Beijing Declaration is quite significant for several reasons. Countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey have substantial diplomatic influence in the Middle East. Their presence underscores the importance of the agreement and lends it greater legitimacy. These nations play crucial roles in regional politics and security. Their support for the declaration can help ensure broader acceptance and implementation, contributing to stability in the region. Many of these countries have the financial resources to aid in the reconstruction of Gaza and support the Palestinian economy. Their involvement signals potential economic backing for the initiatives outlined in the declaration. As allies of the United States, their participation indicates a broader international consensus and support for the peace process. This can help in garnering further international support and possibly aid from other global powers. These countries have historically played roles in mediating conflicts in the region. Their involvement suggests a continued commitment to facilitating dialogue and reconciliation among Palestinian factions.China’s involvement in Palestinian unity talks challenges the traditional U.S. monopoly on Middle East diplomacy. This shift could reduce U.S. influence in the region as countries may increasingly look to China for mediation and support. China’s growing role in the Palestinian issue may strain its relations with Israel, a key U.S. ally. This could complicate U.S. efforts to maintain its strategic partnerships in the region. With China emerging as a significant mediator, regional actors might explore alternative diplomatic channels, potentially sidelining U.S. initiatives. This could lead to a more multipolar diplomatic landscape in the Middle East.The U.S. policy towards the Israel-Palestine conflict has evolved over the years, reflecting changes in administration and regional dynamics. The U.S. has long been involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict, aiming to mediate a peaceful resolution. The conflict itself is rooted in competing claims to the Holy Land, with disputes over borders, Jerusalem, security, and Palestinian refugees. The cornerstone of U.S. policy has traditionally been the support for a two-state solution, envisioning an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel.Critics argue that U.S. policy is heavily tilted in favour of Israel, undermining its role as an impartial mediator. There are ongoing concerns about human rights violations. The U.S. has often been criticized for not doing enough to address these issues, particularly in the context of Israeli settlements and military actions in Palestinian territories.China’s economy has grown rapidly over the past few decades, making it the second-largest economy in the world. However, China’s rapid economic growth is showing signs of slowing down, with challenges such as debt and an ageing population. The one-child policy has led to a demographic imbalance, with a shrinking workforce and an ageing population. China’s authoritarian political system may face challenges in maintaining long-term stability and adaptability. Issues such as income inequality and lack of political freedoms could lead to social unrest.Historically, China often adopted a policy of self-imposed isolation, focusing on internal stability and avoiding extensive foreign relations. This was evident during the Ming and Qing dynasties, where China limited its interactions with the outside world. China’s foreign relations were primarily conducted through a tributary system, where neighbouring states acknowledged Chinese supremacy in exchange for trade and protection. This system was more about regional dominance rather than global influence.Chinese emperors historically prioritized internal affairs, such as maintaining social order and defending against nomadic invasions, over expanding their influence globally. While China did engage in maritime exploration during the early Ming dynasty, such as the voyages of Admiral Zheng He, these efforts were short-lived and did not lead to sustained global influence.Historically, China’s influence was often limited to its immediate region, and it has not demonstrated a sustained ability to project power globally. China’s historical focus on cultural and political isolation may limit its ability to adapt to the demands of global leadership. The United States and its allies continue to be significant global powers, and their combined influence may counterbalance China’s rise. Other countries are also advancing in technology and innovation, creating a competitive environment that challenges China’s dominance.China’s involvement in facilitating Palestinian unity could prompt a re-evaluation of U.S. strategies and policies in the Middle East. The U.S. might intensify its diplomatic efforts to reassert its influence in the region. This could involve more active mediation in the Israel-Palestine conflict and broader Middle Eastern diplomacy. The U.S. may seek to strengthen its alliances with key regional players, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, to counterbalance China’s growing influence.The U.S. might re-evaluate its economic and military aid packages to both Israel and the Palestinian territories to ensure they align with its strategic interests and promote stability. There could be a shift towards more conditional aid, tying financial support to specific political or peace process milestones.The U.S. might place renewed emphasis on the two-state solution, pushing for concrete steps towards its realization to maintain its role as a key mediator. There could be a stronger focus on human rights issues, addressing concerns about Israeli settlements and Palestinian governance to build credibility as an impartial mediator. The U.S. might look to engage with new regional partners, including those who have recently normalized relations with Israel, to build a broader coalition for peace and stability. Efforts to counter China’s influence could involve promoting U.S.-led economic initiatives and infrastructure projects in the region.While maintaining its Middle Eastern commitments, the U.S. might also reorient some of its strategic focus towards Asia, where China’s influence is also growing. The U.S. could adopt more multilateral approaches, working with international organizations and other global powers to address Middle Eastern issues collectively. The U.S. might enhance its public diplomacy efforts to improve its image and counter anti-American sentiments in the region. Promoting cultural and educational exchanges could help build long-term goodwill and understanding between the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries.Giulio M. Gallarotti explores the paradoxes and consequences of power in international relations, presenting a nuanced analysis of how power can be both an asset and a liability for states. He argues that while accumulating power is often seen as a means to enhance security and influence, it can paradoxically lead to insecurity. The more powerful a state becomes, the more might provoke fear and resistance among other states, leading to balancing coalitions that seek to counter its influence. This can result in a security dilemma, where the pursuit of security by one state leads to greater insecurity overall.In our next discussion, we shall briefly explore how states can become entangled in their power, leading to overreach, miscalculations, and ultimately a loss of influence, as illustrated by Gallarotti’s research. Biidhnillah."Then, under the shimmering night stars, Seruni began to read a poem,In the halls of power, their voice resounds,Shaping destinies, crossing bounds.With might and wisdom, they lead the way,Their influence felt, both night and day.
Citations & References:
- Hal Brands & Jeremi Suri, The Power of the Past: History and Statecraft, 2016, Brooking Institution Press
- Jennifer Hubbert, China in the World: An Anthropology of Confucius Institutes, Soft Power, and Globalization, 2019, University of Hawai‘i Press
- Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Future of Power, 2011, PublicAffairs
- Giulio M. Gallarotti, The Power Curse: Influence and Illusion in World Politics, 2010, Lynne Rienner Publishers
